US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 22?

2 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (13%) · Yes at 55¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 22

Yes55¢No45¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 13%

Total Value

$11.5K

Combined PnL

$136.05

Smart Money Entry

51.7¢ → 54.5¢

+5% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 55%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 15 top traders (13%)13 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes55%

No46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$6.8K

Total Shares12,067

Combined PnL+$475.69

No13 traders

Total Value$4.7K

Total Shares10,484

Combined PnL-$339.64

Yes — 13%No — 87%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Car	Yesavg 51.6¢	$5.9K	$6.2K	+$510.13	66% 4490-2317 (6807)
pIebeCTR	Noavg 48.2¢	$3.2K	$3.0K	-$251.58	62% 916-565 (1481)
UnderperformingForALivingCTR	Noavg 48¢	$960	$890	-$70	37% 105-180 (285)
88 881112	Yesavg 52.9¢	$1.3K	$624.29	-$34.44	36% 600-1055 (1655)
Tenebrus7CTR	Noavg 46¢	$230	$222.5	-$7.5	73% 3046-1109 (4155)
Parz1vaICTR	Noavg 45.9¢	$148.57	$165.16	+$16.59	73% 3689-1397 (5086)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR	Noavg 49¢	$124.95	$113.48	-$11.47	22% 1861-6610 (8471)
HoshinoAICTR	Noavg 50¢	$116.93	$81.75	-$12.61	—
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Noavg 49¢	$74.08	$66.52	-$7.56	57% 41418-31188 (72606)
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR<$100	Noavg 39¢	$46.8	$53.4	+$6.6	49% 22824-23654 (46478)
SP SPLPBCTR<$100	Noavg 49¢	$30.87	$28.04	-$2.84	22% 828-2957 (3785)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 44.4¢	$26.63	$26.72	+$0.09	57% 24613-18229 (42842)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Noavg 39.9¢	$16.69	$18.63	+$1.94	32% 21107-45346 (66453)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Noavg 49.1¢	$14.5	$12.91	-$1.6	16% 415-2201 (2616)
JO JokerTheClownCTR<$100	Noavg 43¢	$8.6	$8.9	+$0.3	44% 4193-5387 (9580)

Car

Yes

Invested

$5,878

Value

$6.2K

PnL

+$510.13

Record

66%

4490-2317 (6807)

pIebeCTR

Invested

$3,249.46

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$251.58

Record

62%

916-565 (1481)

UnderperformingForALivingCTR

Invested

$960

Value

$890

PnL

-$70

Record

37%

105-180 (285)

881112

Yes

Invested

$1,265.09

Value

$624.29

PnL

-$34.44

Record

36%

600-1055 (1655)

Tenebrus7CTR

Invested

$230

Value

$222.5

PnL

-$7.5

Record

73%

3046-1109 (4155)

Parz1vaICTR

Invested

$148.57

Value

$165.16

PnL

+$16.59

Record

73%

3689-1397 (5086)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR

Invested

$124.95

Value

$113.48

PnL

-$11.47

Record

22%

1861-6610 (8471)

HoshinoAICTR

Invested

$116.93

Value

$81.75

PnL

-$12.61

Record

—

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Invested

$74.08

Value

$66.52

PnL

-$7.56

Record

57%

41418-31188 (72606)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR<$100

Invested

$46.8

Value

$53.4

PnL

+$6.6

Record

49%

22824-23654 (46478)

SPLPBCTR<$100

Invested

$30.87

Value

$28.04

PnL

-$2.84

Record

22%

828-2957 (3785)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$26.63

Value

$26.72

PnL

+$0.09

Record

57%

24613-18229 (42842)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Invested

$16.69

Value

$18.63

PnL

+$1.94

Record

32%

21107-45346 (66453)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Invested

$14.5

Value

$12.91

PnL

-$1.6

Record

16%

415-2201 (2616)

JokerTheClownCTR<$100

Invested

$8.6

Value

$8.9

PnL

+$0.3

Record

44%

4193-5387 (9580)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 55%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 15 top traders (13%)13 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.5%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$80.18

Max Loss

-$100.00

180.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.