Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was No — and it was correct. Winning outcome: No
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?
Resolved No. 38% of the top Polymarket traders held No. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
39
No 52%
$24.7K
$848.71
Smart Money Signal
15 of 39 top traders (38%)24 hold an outcome priced under 50%28 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 classified | Noavg 99¢ | $11.0K | $10.5K | +$62.72 | 58% 851-629 (1480) |
CO Contestable-Parfait | Noavg 96.3¢ | $6.1K | $6.3K | +$204 | 41% 30-43 (73) |
BU BunCaCham | Noavg 98.2¢ | $3.0K | $3.0K | +$46.53 | 97% 2609-72 (2681) |
SE SeniorLaghetto | Noavg 93.6¢ | $2.4K | $2.6K | +$156.86 | 69% 409-186 (595) |
HU hugecaulk | Noavg 20¢ | $270 | $1.3K | +$1.1K | 45% 10-12 (22) |
 vinii | Noavg 87.8¢ | $473.41 | $539.24 | +$63.4 | 73% 2888-1068 (3956) |
 StupidMonkeyyyCTR | Yesavg 71.5¢ | $234.58 | — | -$235.19 | 50% 150-151 (301) |
 BloodyMummer | Noavg 98.2¢ | $196.4 | $200 | +$2.7 | 77% 559-168 (727) |
 balthazar | Noavg 11.3¢ | $12.71 | $112.94 | +$22.85 | 53% 28631-25560 (54191) |
LI lissartter<$100 | Noavg 78.4¢ | $51.93 | $65.55 | +$13.62 | 42% 5384-7432 (12816) |
KU kukubaja<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $49.7 | $50 | +$0.3 | 84% 519-99 (618) |
JO JokerTheClownCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.9¢ | $74.83 | — | -$68.82 | 51% 4130-4001 (8131) |
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR | Yesavg 3¢ | $104.19 | — | +$1 | 56% 18152-14046 (32198) |
 RememberAmalekCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.3¢ | $51.7 | — | -$51.7 | 56% 984-783 (1767) |
GR grothCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.5¢ | $12.5 | — | -$42.03 | 66% 285-150 (435) |
 paddaaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.8¢ | $50 | — | -$48.45 | 57% 850-651 (1501) |
PI piepedCTR | Yesavg 11.9¢ | $111.7 | — | -$110.29 | 41% 80-113 (193) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.7¢ | $60.43 | — | -$60.43 | 20% 2469-9859 (12328) |
 debasedCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.7¢ | $72.35 | — | -$71.23 | 58% 2318-1691 (4009) |
 rewardbotsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 13.6¢ | $98.08 | — | -$98.44 | 49% 167-172 (339) |
SP SPLPB<$100 | Noavg 97.2¢ | $0.98 | $1 | +$0.02 | 24% 692-2171 (2863) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 12.2¢ | — | — | +$0 | 35% 17549-32799 (50348) |
 CarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8.3¢ | — | — | +$0 | 67% 4183-2048 (6231) |
WA WarriorHCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5¢ | — | — | +$0 | 17% 1065-5310 (6375) |
 morito181<$100 | Noavg 86.4¢ | — | — | +$0 | 61% 847-548 (1395) |
classifiedInvested
$11,049.7
Value
$10.5K
PnL
+$62.72
Record
58%
851-629 (1480)
Invested
$6,114.64
Value
$6.3K
PnL
+$204
Record
41%
30-43 (73)
Invested
$2,952.08
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$46.53
Record
97%
2609-72 (2681)
Invested
$2,442.67
Value
$2.6K
PnL
+$156.86
Record
69%
409-186 (595)
Invested
$270
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$1.1K
Record
45%
10-12 (22)
viniiInvested
$473.41
Value
$539.24
PnL
+$63.4
Record
73%
2888-1068 (3956)
StupidMonkeyyyCTRInvested
$234.58
Value
—
PnL
-$235.19
Record
50%
150-151 (301)
BloodyMummerInvested
$196.4
Value
$200
PnL
+$2.7
Record
77%
559-168 (727)
balthazarInvested
$12.71
Value
$112.94
PnL
+$22.85
Record
53%
28631-25560 (54191)
Invested
$51.93
Value
$65.55
PnL
+$13.62
Record
42%
5384-7432 (12816)
Invested
$49.7
Value
$50
PnL
+$0.3
Record
84%
519-99 (618)
Invested
$74.83
Value
—
PnL
-$68.82
Record
51%
4130-4001 (8131)
Invested
$104.19
Value
—
PnL
+$1
Record
56%
18152-14046 (32198)
RememberAmalekCTR<$100Invested
$51.7
Value
—
PnL
-$51.7
Record
56%
984-783 (1767)
Invested
$12.5
Value
—
PnL
-$42.03
Record
66%
285-150 (435)
paddaaCTR<$100Invested
$50
Value
—
PnL
-$48.45
Record
57%
850-651 (1501)
Invested
$111.7
Value
—
PnL
-$110.29
Record
41%
80-113 (193)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$60.43
Value
—
PnL
-$60.43
Record
20%
2469-9859 (12328)
debasedCTR<$100Invested
$72.35
Value
—
PnL
-$71.23
Record
58%
2318-1691 (4009)
rewardbotsCTR<$100Invested
$98.08
Value
—
PnL
-$98.44
Record
49%
167-172 (339)
Invested
$0.98
Value
$1
PnL
+$0.02
Record
24%
692-2171 (2863)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
35%
17549-32799 (50348)
CarCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
67%
4183-2048 (6231)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
17%
1065-5310 (6375)
morito181<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
61%
847-548 (1395)