US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 92¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 50%
$4.4K
$2.6K
92.1¢ → 91.5¢
-1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 92%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 classifiedCTR | Noavg 8¢ | $506.37 | $3.1K | +$2.6K | 58% 829-603 (1432) |
 Istaroth | Yesavg 92.1¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | -$17.79 | 23% 287-958 (1245) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Noavg 12¢ | $24 | $101 | +$77 | 36% 15093-27221 (42314) |
LI lissartter | Yesavg 92¢ | $754.58 | $3.63 | -$10.74 | 42% 5201-7128 (12329) |
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.