Will Serbia vs. Germany end in a draw?

13 of 23 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 86¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 13

Yes14¢No86¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 57%

Total Value

$11.4K

Combined PnL

-$125.99

Smart Money Entry

84.3¢ → 85.5¢

+1% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 86%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 23 top traders (57%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes14%

No86%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No13 traders

Total Value$8.2K

Total Shares9,424

Combined PnL+$8.33

Yes10 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares22,519

Combined PnL-$134.32

No — 57%Yes — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sniperYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 58% · 12

Diverging

Top 1000No 57% · 23

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
tradecraft	Noavg 85¢	$4.2K	$4.2K	+$24.43	26% 250-703 (953)
MI MigRodrCTR	Yesavg 15¢	$2.0K	$1.8K	-$131.08	30% 25-59 (84)
NM NM-P	Noavg 85.2¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$5.56	59% 3648-2489 (6137)
GC GC-P	Noavg 85¢	$883.55	$889.75	+$6.2	33% 251-499 (750)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 85¢	$850	$855	+$5	53% 6618-5816 (12434)
KY Kyn008CTR	Yesavg 14¢	$599.23	$599.23	+$0	40% 137-202 (339)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 14¢	$388	$388	+$0	54% 1849-1555 (3404)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382	Noavg 85¢	$372.64	$372.64	+$0	47% 189-212 (401)
C6 C63AMG	Noavg 85¢	$2.6K	$349.09	+$2.04	— 13-4 (17)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singles	Noavg 50¢	$1.5K	$198	-$2	75% 112-37 (149)
0xheavy888	Noavg 85¢	$170	$170	+$0	53% 388-339 (727)
LI LimousinCTR	Yesavg 14¢	$165.6	$165.6	+$0	35% 735-1379 (2114)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Yesavg 15¢	$120	$116	-$4	22% 266-965 (1231)
OD Oddstorm<$100	Noavg 86¢	$88.52	$87.49	-$1.03	30% 77-180 (257)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 85¢	$32.3	$32.3	+$0	56% 307-245 (552)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Yesavg 14¢	$24.87	$24.87	+$0	35% 749-1385 (2134)
38 38791873984189<$100	Noavg 85¢	$77.86	$23.46	-$11.73	48% 2786-3040 (5826)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Yesavg 14¢	$14.41	$14.41	+$0	50% 3193-3131 (6324)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Yesavg 14¢	$7.46	$7.46	+$0	34% 735-1404 (2139)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 85¢	$99.99	$6.59	-$20.15	39% 3479-5356 (8835)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 13.7¢	$53.84	$5.78	+$0.76	53% 1326-1186 (2512)
AN AnonymousUsername<$100	Noavg 85¢	$5.67	$5.67	-$0	43% 68-91 (159)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100	Yesavg 14¢	$0.28	$0.28	+$0	51% 46-45 (91)

tradecraft

Invested

$4,153.9

Value

$4.2K

PnL

+$24.43

Record

26%

250-703 (953)

MigRodrCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,966.17

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$131.08

Record

30%

25-59 (84)

NM-P

Invested

$1,074.76

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$5.56

Record

59%

3648-2489 (6137)

GC-P

Invested

$883.55

Value

$889.75

PnL

+$6.2

Record

33%

251-499 (750)

cigarettes

Invested

$850

Value

$855

PnL

+$5

Record

53%

6618-5816 (12434)

Kyn008CTR

Yes

Invested

$599.23

Value

$599.23

PnL

+$0

Record

40%

137-202 (339)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$388

Value

$388

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

1849-1555 (3404)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382

Invested

$372.64

Value

$372.64

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

189-212 (401)

C63AMG

Invested

$2,645

Value

$349.09

PnL

+$2.04

Record

—

13-4 (17)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singles

Invested

$1,508

Value

$198

PnL

-$2

Record

75%

112-37 (149)

0xheavy888

Invested

$170

Value

$170

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

388-339 (727)

LimousinCTR

Yes

Invested

$165.6

Value

$165.6

PnL

+$0

Record

35%

735-1379 (2114)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Yes

Invested

$120

Value

$116

PnL

-$4

Record

22%

266-965 (1231)

Oddstorm<$100

Invested

$88.52

Value

$87.49

PnL

-$1.03

Record

30%

77-180 (257)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$32.3

Value

$32.3

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

307-245 (552)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.87

Value

$24.87

PnL

+$0

Record

35%

749-1385 (2134)

38791873984189<$100

Invested

$77.86

Value

$23.46

PnL

-$11.73

Record

48%

2786-3040 (5826)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.41

Value

$14.41

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

3193-3131 (6324)

VenusianCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.46

Value

$7.46

PnL

+$0

Record

34%

735-1404 (2139)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$99.99

Value

$6.59

PnL

-$20.15

Record

39%

3479-5356 (8835)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$53.84

Value

$5.78

PnL

+$0.76

Record

53%

1326-1186 (2512)

AnonymousUsername<$100

Invested

$5.67

Value

$5.67

PnL

-$0

Record

43%

68-91 (159)

hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.28

Value

$0.28

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

46-45 (91)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 86%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 23 top traders (57%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sniperYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 58% · 12

Diverging

Top 1000No 57% · 23

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.1%

85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

114.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.