Norway vs. Wales: 1st Half O/U 1.5

11 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Under (69%) · Under at 100¢ · $11K held · ended Nov 14

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 69%

Total Value

$10.5K

Combined PnL

$2.9K

Smart Money Entry

60.3¢ → 100¢

+66% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

11 of 16 top traders (69%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under11 traders

Total Value$10.5K

Total Shares10,787

Combined PnL+$3.7K

Over5 traders

Total Value$80.77

Total Shares1,919

Combined PnL-$741.8

Under — 69%Over — 31%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOver 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrUnder 78% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 67% · 15

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 60.2¢	$2.5K	$3.9K	+$1.4K	49% 3867-4029 (7896)
RN1	Underavg 58.9¢	$2.4K	$3.5K	+$1.1K	55% 5380-4339 (9719)
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 50¢	$669.74	$1.3K	+$616.42	48% 912-1002 (1914)
SU suntori	Underavg 96¢	$571.42	$594.93	+$23.51	46% 2702-3200 (5902)
LO lonmi2511	Underavg 49¢	$284.8	$557.97	+$273.17	60% 714-484 (1198)
LI Limousin	Underavg 49¢	$117.24	$229.69	+$112.45	36% 950-1657 (2607)
PV pvc975	Underavg 99.9¢	$223.82	$215.08	-$8.74	98% 349-6 (355)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Overavg 50¢	$79.12	$63.32	-$15.8	55% 474-384 (858)
LI LightParadox<$100	Underavg 50¢	$28.8	$57.57	+$28.77	37% 977-1669 (2646)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Underavg 49.1¢	$26.19	$53.29	+$27.1	48% 2109-2267 (4376)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 49.1¢	$31.66	$48.32	+$23.6	53% 1809-1607 (3416)
DA dashattacker<$100	Underavg 88¢	$18.41	$20.91	+$2.5	64% 303-171 (474)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 7.4¢	$349.49	$10.09	+$98.35	48% 3231-3545 (6776)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 13.7¢	$18.79	$5.49	-$13.3	36% 455-810 (1265)
DV dv-pmCTR<$100	Overavg 46¢	$12.65	$1.1	-$11.55	44% 31-39 (70)
fxwd12345CTR	Overavg 52¢	$800.27	$0.77	-$799.5	74% 49-17 (66)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$2,451.46

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

49%

3867-4029 (7896)

RN1

Under

Invested

$2,377.39

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

55%

5380-4339 (9719)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$669.74

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$616.42

Record

48%

912-1002 (1914)

suntori

Under

Invested

$571.42

Value

$594.93

PnL

+$23.51

Record

46%

2702-3200 (5902)

lonmi2511

Under

Invested

$284.8

Value

$557.97

PnL

+$273.17

Record

60%

714-484 (1198)

Limousin

Under

Invested

$117.24

Value

$229.69

PnL

+$112.45

Record

36%

950-1657 (2607)

pvc975

Under

Invested

$223.82

Value

$215.08

PnL

-$8.74

Record

98%

349-6 (355)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$79.12

Value

$63.32

PnL

-$15.8

Record

55%

474-384 (858)

LightParadox<$100

Under

Invested

$28.8

Value

$57.57

PnL

+$28.77

Record

37%

977-1669 (2646)

ferdinand2<$100

Under

Invested

$26.19

Value

$53.29

PnL

+$27.1

Record

48%

2109-2267 (4376)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$31.66

Value

$48.32

PnL

+$23.6

Record

53%

1809-1607 (3416)

dashattacker<$100

Under

Invested

$18.41

Value

$20.91

PnL

+$2.5

Record

64%

303-171 (474)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$349.49

Value

$10.09

PnL

+$98.35

Record

48%

3231-3545 (6776)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$18.79

Value

$5.49

PnL

-$13.3

Record

36%

455-810 (1265)

dv-pmCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$12.65

Value

$1.1

PnL

-$11.55

Record

44%

31-39 (70)

fxwd12345CTR

Over

Invested

$800.27

Value

$0.77

PnL

-$799.5

Record

74%

49-17 (66)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

11 of 16 top traders (69%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOver 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrUnder 78% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 67% · 15

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.