Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (60%). 3 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will Armenia win on 2026-11-15?

3 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (30%) · Yes at 41¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 15

Yes41¢No59¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 30%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

$11.36

Smart Money Entry

40¢ → 40.5¢

+1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 41%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 10 top traders (30%)Underdog side (market favors No 60%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes41%

No60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$655.04

Total Shares1,109

Combined PnL+$7.17

Yes3 traders

Total Value$605.87

Total Shares1,504

Combined PnL+$4.19

No — 70%Yes — 30%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
fyrsken	Noavg 60¢	$360	$354	-$6	50% 58-59 (117)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Yesavg 40¢	$316.8	$320.76	+$3.96	49% 4123-4317 (8440)
HY hydra1248CTR	Yesavg 40¢	$266.32	$266.32	+$0	75% 194-64 (258)
GU guilttrip	Noavg 55¢	$163.61	$169.02	+$12.74	44% 22-28 (50)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Noavg 59¢	$42.82	$43.18	+$0.36	47% 339-375 (714)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 59¢	$31.86	$32.13	+$0.27	55% 547-442 (989)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Noavg 60¢	$26.34	$25.9	-$0.44	35% 520-947 (1467)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 59.1¢	$24.84	$25.02	+$0.18	53% 1938-1717 (3655)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100	Yesavg 40¢	$18.56	$18.79	+$0.23	51% 81-79 (160)
tradecraft<$100	Noavg 59¢	$5.74	$5.79	+$0.05	32% 385-828 (1213)

fyrsken

Invested

$360

Value

$354

PnL

-$6

Record

50%

58-59 (117)

FlaznorpCTR

Yes

Invested

$316.8

Value

$320.76

PnL

+$3.96

Record

49%

4123-4317 (8440)

hydra1248CTR

Yes

Invested

$266.32

Value

$266.32

PnL

+$0

Record

75%

194-64 (258)

guilttrip

Invested

$163.61

Value

$169.02

PnL

+$12.74

Record

44%

22-28 (50)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

Invested

$42.82

Value

$43.18

PnL

+$0.36

Record

47%

339-375 (714)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$31.86

Value

$32.13

PnL

+$0.27

Record

55%

547-442 (989)

LuckyLoo<$100

Invested

$26.34

Value

$25.9

PnL

-$0.44

Record

35%

520-947 (1467)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$24.84

Value

$25.02

PnL

+$0.18

Record

53%

1938-1717 (3655)

hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.56

Value

$18.79

PnL

+$0.23

Record

51%

81-79 (160)

tradecraft<$100

Invested

$5.74

Value

$5.79

PnL

+$0.05

Record

32%

385-828 (1213)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 41%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 10 top traders (30%)Underdog side (market favors No 60%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance42.7%

40.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$134.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

234.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.