Will Slovakia win on 2026-11-16?

3 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (27%) · Yes at 53¢ · $610 held · ends Nov 16

Yes53¢No47¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 27%

Total Value

$609.84

Combined PnL

-$43.36

Smart Money Entry

58.8¢ → 52.5¢

-11% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 11 top traders (27%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes53%

No48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$328.18

Total Shares619

Combined PnL-$36.15

No8 traders

Total Value$281.66

Total Shares589

Combined PnL-$7.21

Yes — 27%No — 73%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

26h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

27% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 57% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000No 73% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
fyrsken	Yesavg 59¢	$354	$318	-$36	48% 67-73 (140)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Noavg 53.5¢	$104.86	$94.08	-$10.78	38% 3822-6251 (10073)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Noavg 47.4¢	$93.67	$93.93	+$0.26	49% 4676-4943 (9619)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Noavg 48¢	$49.68	$49.68	+$0	38% 1332-2185 (3517)
0X 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69CTR<$100	Noavg 40¢	$16	$19.2	+$3.2	51% 202-191 (393)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 48.3¢	$12.08	$12	-$0.08	53% 2316-2081 (4397)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Noavg 47.6¢	$6.01	$6.06	+$0.05	48% 2555-2763 (5318)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100	Yesavg 53¢	$5.57	$5.46	-$0.11	49% 96-101 (197)
SU suntori<$100	Yesavg 53¢	$4.76	$4.72	-$0.04	46% 3282-3819 (7101)
GC GC-PCTR<$100	Noavg 47¢	$4.22	$4.31	+$0.09	42% 548-748 (1296)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 47¢	$2.35	$2.4	+$0.05	41% 1189-1686 (2875)

fyrsken

Yes

Invested

$354

Value

$318

PnL

-$36

Record

48%

67-73 (140)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Invested

$104.86

Value

$94.08

PnL

-$10.78

Record

38%

3822-6251 (10073)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Invested

$93.67

Value

$93.93

PnL

+$0.26

Record

49%

4676-4943 (9619)

LimousinCTR<$100

Invested

$49.68

Value

$49.68

PnL

+$0

Record

38%

1332-2185 (3517)

0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69CTR<$100

Invested

$16

Value

$19.2

PnL

+$3.2

Record

51%

202-191 (393)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$12.08

Value

$12

PnL

-$0.08

Record

53%

2316-2081 (4397)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Invested

$6.01

Value

$6.06

PnL

+$0.05

Record

48%

2555-2763 (5318)

hedgevaultmainnet1<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.57

Value

$5.46

PnL

-$0.11

Record

49%

96-101 (197)

suntori<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.76

Value

$4.72

PnL

-$0.04

Record

46%

3282-3819 (7101)

GC-PCTR<$100

Invested

$4.22

Value

$4.31

PnL

+$0.09

Record

42%

548-748 (1296)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$2.35

Value

$2.4

PnL

+$0.05

Record

41%

1189-1686 (2875)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 53%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 11 top traders (27%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

26h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

27% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 57% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000No 73% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.