Italy vs. France: Draw at halftime?

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (58%) · Yes at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 12

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 58%

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

$237.13

Smart Money Entry

68.3¢ → 100¢

+46% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares2,091

Combined PnL+$730.94

No5 traders

Total Value$0.61

Total Shares1,176

Combined PnL-$493.8

Yes — 58%No — 42%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

58% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 58% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Yesavg 58¢	$707.98	$1.2K	+$454.18	55% 1693-1391 (3084)
FL Flaznorp	Yesavg 77¢	$444.09	$576.74	+$132.65	51% 2634-2567 (5201)
38 38791873984189	Yesavg 94.6¢	$567.62	$193.2	+$111.58	48% 2298-2502 (4800)
VE Venusian	Yesavg 92¢	$93.82	$100.22	+$6.4	32% 565-1192 (1757)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Yesavg 59.1¢	$19.95	$25.74	+$13.24	49% 1307-1343 (2650)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100	Yesavg 70¢	$13.99	$19.98	+$5.99	29% 175-437 (612)
SU suntori<$100	Yesavg 40¢	$4.76	$11.66	+$6.9	47% 1704-1945 (3649)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Noavg 42¢	$483.72	$0.58	-$483.14	33% 585-1187 (1772)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Noavg 60¢	$1.5	$0.03	-$1.48	42% 97-133 (230)
0X 0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000CTR<$100	Noavg 45¢	$5.68	$0.01	-$5.67	16% 21-112 (133)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Noavg 45¢	$3.45	$0	-$3.45	40% 3331-4967 (8298)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 6¢	$0.06	$0	-$0.06	53% 6251-5536 (11787)

GoalLineGhost

Yes

Invested

$707.98

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$454.18

Record

55%

1693-1391 (3084)

Flaznorp

Yes

Invested

$444.09

Value

$576.74

PnL

+$132.65

Record

51%

2634-2567 (5201)

38791873984189

Yes

Invested

$567.62

Value

$193.2

PnL

+$111.58

Record

48%

2298-2502 (4800)

Venusian

Yes

Invested

$93.82

Value

$100.22

PnL

+$6.4

Record

32%

565-1192 (1757)

ferdinand2<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.95

Value

$25.74

PnL

+$13.24

Record

49%

1307-1343 (2650)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.99

Value

$19.98

PnL

+$5.99

Record

29%

175-437 (612)

suntori<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.76

Value

$11.66

PnL

+$6.9

Record

47%

1704-1945 (3649)

LightParadoxCTR

Invested

$483.72

Value

$0.58

PnL

-$483.14

Record

33%

585-1187 (1772)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Invested

$1.5

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$1.48

Record

42%

97-133 (230)

0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000CTR<$100

Invested

$5.68

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$5.67

Record

16%

21-112 (133)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Invested

$3.45

Value

PnL

-$3.45

Record

40%

3331-4967 (8298)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$0.06

Value

PnL

-$0.06

Record

53%

6251-5536 (11787)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

58% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 58% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.