Georgia vs. Hungary: O/U 0.5

10 of 22 top Polymarket traders hold Over (45%) · Over at 100¢ · $16K held · ended Nov 14

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 45%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$16.1K

Combined PnL

$-1.4K

Smart Money Entry

85.4¢ → 100¢

+17% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

10 of 22 top traders (45%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over10 traders

Total Value$9.4K

Total Shares11,240

Combined PnL-$392.98

Under12 traders

Total Value$417.35

Total Shares4,349

Combined PnL$-1.0K

Over — 45%Under — 55%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-31 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

69% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (13 on Over) disagree here.

sharpOver 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrOver 70% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 69% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PV pvc975	Overavg 99.9¢	$5.4K	$5.4K	+$2.68	98% 349-6 (355)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 73¢	$3.7K	$3.2K	-$488.01	49% 3867-4029 (7896)
└ Over leg	Overavg 73¢	$2.7K	$2.0K	-$772.22
└ Under leg	Underavg 36.3¢	$923.4	$1.2K	+$284.21
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Overavg 71.4¢	$2.6K	$2.8K	+$205.28	53% 2108-1855 (3963)
└ Under leg	Underavg 31.9¢	$1.2K	$1.8K	+$639.14
└ Over leg	Overavg 71.4¢	$1.5K	$1.1K	-$433.86
RN1	Overavg 65.3¢	$3.2K	$2.8K	-$396.36	55% 5380-4339 (9719)
ZaiZoiBele	Overavg 99¢	$883.74	$888.21	+$4.46	21% 61-231 (292)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Underavg 16.5¢	$104.95	$315.42	+$210.46	36% 455-810 (1265)
VA Vampiro1	Overavg 95.6¢	$256.87	$268.54	+$11.68	84% 205-39 (244)
FO fooooolARB<$100	Overavg 71.5¢	$223.03	$197.31	-$25.72	37% 78-132 (210)
└ Over leg	Overavg 71.5¢	$204.53	$144.56	-$59.97
└ Under leg	Underavg 17.4¢	$18.5	$52.75	+$34.26
NO NotJump<$100	Overavg 69.3¢	$69.3	$54.5	-$14.8	52% 833-779 (1612)
38 38791873984189CTR	Underavg 43.5¢	$358.08	$46.23	-$13.82	48% 3231-3545 (6776)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 28¢	$22.25	$22.65	+$0.4	42% 1008-1381 (2389)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 34.2¢	$18.15	$20.46	+$2.31	36% 950-1657 (2607)
GH ghorrock<$100	Overavg 87¢	$20.02	$20.35	+$0.32	53% 1809-1607 (3416)
HY hydra1248<$100	Overavg 89¢	$13.13	$11.65	-$1.48	75% 188-64 (252)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Overavg 86¢	$7.4	$8.78	+$1.38	37% 1039-1757 (2796)
SU suntoriCTR	Underavg 43.4¢	$159.19	$4.67	-$152.65	46% 2702-3200 (5902)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 46¢	$4.25	$4.11	-$0.14	37% 977-1669 (2646)
LR lryyy<$100	Overavg 88¢	$4.4	$3.95	-$0.45	45% 814-997 (1811)
0xheavy888<$100	Overavg 89¢	$3.64	$3.23	-$0.41	54% 503-421 (924)
DA dashattackerCTR<$100	Underavg 43¢	$2.29	$2.27	-$0.03	64% 303-171 (474)
VE VenusianCTR	Underavg 41.6¢	$876.5	$1.05	-$875.44	37% 968-1674 (2642)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Underavg 40¢	$173.69	$0.22	-$173.47	37% 985-1642 (2627)
0X 0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000CTR<$100	Underavg 2¢	$7.08	$0.18	-$6.9	24% 56-173 (229)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Underavg 2¢	$10.93	$0.07	-$0.86	44% 661-825 (1486)
dips.CTR<$100	Underavg 2¢	$1.47	$0.04	-$1.43	47% 973-1108 (2081)

pvc975

Over

Invested

$5,351.82

Value

$5.4K

PnL

+$2.68

Record

98%

349-6 (355)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$3,669.27

Value

$3.2K

PnL

-$488.01

Record

49%

3867-4029 (7896)

Both legs:

Over$2,745.8873¢-$772.22

Under$923.436.3¢+$284.21

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Over

Invested

$2,644.59

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$205.28

Record

53%

2108-1855 (3963)

Both legs:

Under$1,160.0531.9¢+$639.14

Over$1,484.5471.4¢-$433.86

RN1

Over

Invested

$3,195.57

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$396.36

Record

55%

5380-4339 (9719)

ZaiZoiBele

Over

Invested

$883.74

Value

$888.21

PnL

+$4.46

Record

21%

61-231 (292)

LuckyLooCTR

Under

Invested

$104.95

Value

$315.42

PnL

+$210.46

Record

36%

455-810 (1265)

Vampiro1

Over

Invested

$256.87

Value

$268.54

PnL

+$11.68

Record

84%

205-39 (244)

fooooolARB<$100

Over

Invested

$223.03

Value

$197.31

PnL

-$25.72

Record

37%

78-132 (210)

Both legs:

Over$204.5371.5¢-$59.97

Under$18.517.4¢+$34.26

NotJump<$100

Over

Invested

$69.3

Value

$54.5

PnL

-$14.8

Record

52%

833-779 (1612)

38791873984189CTR

Under

Invested

$358.08

Value

$46.23

PnL

-$13.82

Record

48%

3231-3545 (6776)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$22.25

Value

$22.65

PnL

+$0.4

Record

42%

1008-1381 (2389)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$18.15

Value

$20.46

PnL

+$2.31

Record

36%

950-1657 (2607)

ghorrock<$100

Over

Invested

$20.02

Value

$20.35

PnL

+$0.32

Record

53%

1809-1607 (3416)

hydra1248<$100

Over

Invested

$13.13

Value

$11.65

PnL

-$1.48

Record

75%

188-64 (252)

topdogbigboi<$100

Over

Invested

$7.4

Value

$8.78

PnL

+$1.38

Record

37%

1039-1757 (2796)

suntoriCTR

Under

Invested

$159.19

Value

$4.67

PnL

-$152.65

Record

46%

2702-3200 (5902)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.25

Value

$4.11

PnL

-$0.14

Record

37%

977-1669 (2646)

lryyy<$100

Over

Invested

$4.4

Value

$3.95

PnL

-$0.45

Record

45%

814-997 (1811)

0xheavy888<$100

Over

Invested

$3.64

Value

$3.23

PnL

-$0.41

Record

54%

503-421 (924)

dashattackerCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.29

Value

$2.27

PnL

-$0.03

Record

64%

303-171 (474)

VenusianCTR

Under

Invested

$876.5

Value

$1.05

PnL

-$875.44

Record

37%

968-1674 (2642)

MadridTimeCTR

Under

Invested

$173.69

Value

$0.22

PnL

-$173.47

Record

37%

985-1642 (2627)

0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$7.08

Value

$0.18

PnL

-$6.9

Record

24%

56-173 (229)

smithagentCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$10.93

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$0.86

Record

44%

661-825 (1486)

dips.CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.47

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$1.43

Record

47%

973-1108 (2081)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

10 of 22 top traders (45%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-31 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

69% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (13 on Over) disagree here.

sharpOver 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrOver 70% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 69% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.