Georgia vs. Hungary: 1st Half O/U 0.5

9 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Under (47%) · Under at 100¢ · $16K held · ended Nov 14

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 47%

Total Value

$15.8K

Combined PnL

$3.2K

Smart Money Entry

64¢ → 100¢

+56% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 19 top traders (47%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under9 traders

Total Value$14.0K

Total Shares14,831

Combined PnL+$3.4K

Over10 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares6,447

Combined PnL-$130.87

Under — 47%Over — 53%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (15 on Under) disagree here.

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 70% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 60% · 15

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dashattacker	Underavg 95.9¢	$6.0K	$5.5K	-$335.2	64% 303-171 (474)
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 41.1¢	$2.6K	$4.5K	+$1.9K	49% 3867-4029 (7896)
VE Venusian	Underavg 34.9¢	$850.45	$2.2K	+$1.3K	37% 968-1674 (2642)
RN1CTR	Overavg 65¢	$1.8K	$1.5K	-$268.03	55% 5380-4339 (9719)
PV pvc975	Underavg 99.9¢	$896.95	$897.4	+$0.45	98% 349-6 (355)
LI Limousin	Underavg 38¢	$257.42	$575.8	+$318.38	36% 950-1657 (2607)
FE ferdinand2	Underavg 37.5¢	$82.87	$187.85	+$104.98	48% 2109-2267 (4376)
GA gaclfzCTR	Overavg 2.5¢	$27.75	$166.5	+$138.75	9% 17-167 (184)
SM Smallcoins<$100	Underavg 51¢	$57.63	$96.05	+$38.42	4% 9-230 (239)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 8.6¢	$281.72	$65.28	-$0.94	48% 3231-3545 (6776)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Overavg 6.2¢	$24.89	$59.78	+$34.9	37% 1039-1757 (2796)
NO NotJump<$100	Underavg 81¢	$21.89	$22.97	+$1.08	52% 833-779 (1612)
PA pauleta23<$100	Underavg 84¢	$10	$10.12	+$0.12	40% 438-655 (1093)
SU suntoriCTR	Overavg 14.5¢	$263.31	$3.43	+$68.89	46% 2702-3200 (5902)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 63¢	$8.9	$2.12	-$6.78	53% 1809-1607 (3416)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Overavg 0.1¢	$1.51	$0.76	-$0.76	37% 977-1669 (2646)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Overavg 62¢	$3.1	$0.75	-$2.35	55% 474-384 (858)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Overavg 4.8¢	$37.08	$0.38	-$36.69	44% 661-825 (1486)
dips.CTR<$100	Overavg 7.8¢	$59.37	$0.37	-$57.86	47% 973-1108 (2081)

dashattacker

Under

Invested

$5,955.69

Value

$5.5K

PnL

-$335.2

Record

64%

303-171 (474)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$2,618.82

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$1.9K

Record

49%

3867-4029 (7896)

Venusian

Under

Invested

$850.45

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

37%

968-1674 (2642)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$1,792

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$268.03

Record

55%

5380-4339 (9719)

pvc975

Under

Invested

$896.95

Value

$897.4

PnL

+$0.45

Record

98%

349-6 (355)

Limousin

Under

Invested

$257.42

Value

$575.8

PnL

+$318.38

Record

36%

950-1657 (2607)

ferdinand2

Under

Invested

$82.87

Value

$187.85

PnL

+$104.98

Record

48%

2109-2267 (4376)

gaclfzCTR

Over

Invested

$27.75

Value

$166.5

PnL

+$138.75

Record

17-167 (184)

Smallcoins<$100

Under

Invested

$57.63

Value

$96.05

PnL

+$38.42

Record

9-230 (239)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$281.72

Value

$65.28

PnL

-$0.94

Record

48%

3231-3545 (6776)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$24.89

Value

$59.78

PnL

+$34.9

Record

37%

1039-1757 (2796)

NotJump<$100

Under

Invested

$21.89

Value

$22.97

PnL

+$1.08

Record

52%

833-779 (1612)

pauleta23<$100

Under

Invested

$10

Value

$10.12

PnL

+$0.12

Record

40%

438-655 (1093)

suntoriCTR

Over

Invested

$263.31

Value

$3.43

PnL

+$68.89

Record

46%

2702-3200 (5902)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$8.9

Value

$2.12

PnL

-$6.78

Record

53%

1809-1607 (3416)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.51

Value

$0.76

PnL

-$0.76

Record

37%

977-1669 (2646)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.1

Value

$0.75

PnL

-$2.35

Record

55%

474-384 (858)

smithagentCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$37.08

Value

$0.38

PnL

-$36.69

Record

44%

661-825 (1486)

dips.CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$59.37

Value

$0.37

PnL

-$57.86

Record

47%

973-1108 (2081)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 19 top traders (47%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (15 on Under) disagree here.

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 70% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 60% · 15

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.