France vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 0.5

11 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Under (58%) · Under at 100¢ · $16K held · ended Nov 15

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 58%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$16.2K

Combined PnL

$3.8K

Smart Money Entry

53.8¢ → 100¢

+86% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

11 of 19 top traders (58%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under11 traders

Total Value$16.0K

Total Shares16,405

Combined PnL+$6.6K

Over8 traders

Total Value$132.54

Total Shares5,112

Combined PnL$-2.8K

Under — 58%Over — 42%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 50%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

58% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 50% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOver 67% · 6

Diverging

ctrUnder 67% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 58% · 19

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dashattacker	Underavg 78.3¢	$4.0K	$5.1K	+$1.1K	65% 370-195 (565)
RN1	Underavg 40.6¢	$2.3K	$4.0K	+$1.6K	54% 6095-5185 (11280)
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 51.8¢	$2.7K	$2.2K	+$1.1K	48% 4819-5125 (9944)
MA MadridTime	Underavg 40.6¢	$956.51	$2.2K	+$1.3K	38% 1416-2272 (3688)
VE Venusian	Underavg 36.9¢	$552.67	$1.4K	+$870.53	38% 1425-2300 (3725)
LI LightParadox	Underavg 29¢	$223.43	$731.82	+$508.39	38% 1425-2328 (3753)
PV pvc975	Underavg 99.9¢	$271.16	$257.86	-$13.3	98% 542-12 (554)
LI Limousin<$100	Underavg 21.2¢	$50.97	$83.95	+$96.89	38% 1401-2279 (3680)
ER72SENCTR	Overavg 62¢	$992.92	$76.48	-$862.36	77% 34-10 (44)
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	Overavg 24.1¢	$135.13	$63.3	-$71.83	39% 1657-2634 (4291)
└ Under leg	Underavg 23.4¢	$9.19	$37.22	+$28.04
└ Over leg	Overavg 24.1¢	$125.95	$26.08	-$99.87
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 22.8¢	$388.45	$38.92	+$179.93	48% 4056-4455 (8511)
LR lryyy<$100	Underavg 39.8¢	$18.99	$35.44	+$16.45	45% 1018-1224 (2242)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Underavg 36.2¢	$5.79	$15.99	+$10.2	48% 2643-2871 (5514)
dips.<$100	Underavg 96¢	$15	$14.84	-$0.16	48% 1342-1442 (2784)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 11.6¢	$29.33	$12.61	-$16.72	35% 669-1223 (1892)
AR ARocky33CTR<$100	Overavg 80¢	$31.98	$2	-$29.99	78% 833-236 (1069)
RO Rocky31CTR	Overavg 81¢	$2.0K	$1.26	$-2.0K	47% 130-145 (275)
0X 0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105CTR<$100	Overavg 79¢	$19.51	$1.23	-$18.27	98% 691-11 (702)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$18.26	$0.02	-$18.24	46% 3397-3944 (7341)
0X 0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000CTR<$100	Overavg 51¢	$15.12	$0.01	-$15.11	30% 106-248 (354)

dashattacker

Under

Invested

$3,955.92

Value

$5.1K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

65%

370-195 (565)

RN1

Under

Invested

$2,308.32

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$1.6K

Record

54%

6095-5185 (11280)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$2,718.27

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

48%

4819-5125 (9944)

MadridTime

Under

Invested

$956.51

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

38%

1416-2272 (3688)

Venusian

Under

Invested

$552.67

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$870.53

Record

38%

1425-2300 (3725)

LightParadox

Under

Invested

$223.43

Value

$731.82

PnL

+$508.39

Record

38%

1425-2328 (3753)

pvc975

Under

Invested

$271.16

Value

$257.86

PnL

-$13.3

Record

98%

542-12 (554)

Limousin<$100

Under

Invested

$50.97

Value

$83.95

PnL

+$96.89

Record

38%

1401-2279 (3680)

ER72SENCTR

Over

Invested

$992.92

Value

$76.48

PnL

-$862.36

Record

77%

34-10 (44)

topdogbigboiARB<$100

Over

Invested

$135.13

Value

$63.3

PnL

-$71.83

Record

39%

1657-2634 (4291)

Both legs:

Under$9.1923.4¢+$28.04

Over$125.9524.1¢-$99.87

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$388.45

Value

$38.92

PnL

+$179.93

Record

48%

4056-4455 (8511)

lryyy<$100

Under

Invested

$18.99

Value

$35.44

PnL

+$16.45

Record

45%

1018-1224 (2242)

ferdinand2<$100

Under

Invested

$5.79

Value

$15.99

PnL

+$10.2

Record

48%

2643-2871 (5514)

dips.<$100

Under

Invested

$15

Value

$14.84

PnL

-$0.16

Record

48%

1342-1442 (2784)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$29.33

Value

$12.61

PnL

-$16.72

Record

35%

669-1223 (1892)

ARocky33CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$31.98

Value

PnL

-$29.99

Record

78%

833-236 (1069)

Rocky31CTR

Over

Invested

$2,044.03

Value

$1.26

PnL

$-2.0K

Record

47%

130-145 (275)

0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$19.51

Value

$1.23

PnL

-$18.27

Record

98%

691-11 (702)

suntoriCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$18.26

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$18.24

Record

46%

3397-3944 (7341)

0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$15.12

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$15.11

Record

30%

106-248 (354)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

11 of 19 top traders (58%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 50%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

58% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 50% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOver 67% · 6

Diverging

ctrUnder 67% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 58% · 19

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.