Will France vs. Türkiye end in a draw?

10 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 89¢ · $21K held · ends Nov 15

Yes12¢No88¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 71%

Total Value

$21.4K

Combined PnL

-$580.67

Smart Money Entry

87.1¢ → 88.5¢

+2% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 89%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 14 top traders (71%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes12%

No89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$17.2K

Total Shares19,761

Combined PnL-$44.36

Yes4 traders

Total Value$4.2K

Total Shares36,371

Combined PnL-$536.31

No — 71%Yes — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+28 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 46%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 46% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sniperYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 69% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Noavg 87¢	$4.3K	$4.3K	+$0	53% 1840-1607 (3447)
MI MigRodrCTR	Yesavg 13¢	$4.7K	$4.2K	-$531.77	29% 26-65 (91)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 88¢	$3.6K	$3.6K	-$41.47	52% 2443-2220 (4663)
NM NM-P	Noavg 87¢	$3.1K	$3.1K	+$3.79	59% 3945-2726 (6671)
C6 C63AMG	Noavg 86¢	$2.6K	$2.6K	+$30	78% 21-6 (27)
GC GC-P	Noavg 87.4¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	-$10	42% 545-745 (1290)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382	Noavg 87¢	$957.87	$957.87	-$0	48% 468-503 (971)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 88¢	$176	$174	-$2	53% 7447-6561 (14008)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 87¢	$32.19	$32.19	+$0	56% 636-504 (1140)
38 38791873984189	Noavg 87.4¢	$119.69	$17.4	-$24.29	48% 3920-4262 (8182)
OD Oddstorm<$100	Noavg 90¢	$11.7	$11.31	-$0.39	36% 138-250 (388)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$6.55	$8.52	+$1.97	49% 4576-4835 (9411)
GU guilttripCTR<$100	Yesavg 33.3¢	$10.67	$4.16	-$6.51	47% 27-30 (57)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 13¢	$3.7	$3.7	+$0	53% 2282-2055 (4337)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$4,350

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

1840-1607 (3447)

MigRodrCTR

Yes

Invested

$4,700

Value

$4.2K

PnL

-$531.77

Record

29%

26-65 (91)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$3,649.72

Value

$3.6K

PnL

-$41.47

Record

52%

2443-2220 (4663)

NM-P

Invested

$3,055.82

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$3.79

Record

59%

3945-2726 (6671)

C63AMG

Invested

$2,580

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$30

Record

78%

21-6 (27)

GC-P

Invested

$2,412.91

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$10

Record

42%

545-745 (1290)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382

Invested

$957.87

Value

$957.87

PnL

-$0

Record

48%

468-503 (971)

cigarettes

Invested

$176

Value

$174

PnL

-$2

Record

53%

7447-6561 (14008)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$32.19

Value

$32.19

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

636-504 (1140)

38791873984189

Invested

$119.69

Value

$17.4

PnL

-$24.29

Record

48%

3920-4262 (8182)

Oddstorm<$100

Invested

$11.7

Value

$11.31

PnL

-$0.39

Record

36%

138-250 (388)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.55

Value

$8.52

PnL

+$1.97

Record

49%

4576-4835 (9411)

guilttripCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.67

Value

$4.16

PnL

-$6.51

Record

47%

27-30 (57)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.7

Value

$3.7

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

2282-2055 (4337)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 89%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 14 top traders (71%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+28 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 46%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 46% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sniperYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 69% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.0%

88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.