Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (95%). 10 of 18 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Finland vs. San Marino: O/U 6.5

10 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Under (56%) · Under at 5.5¢ · $10K held · ended Nov 15

Over95¢Under5¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 56%

Total Value

$10.3K

Combined PnL

-$571.69

Smart Money Entry

56¢ → 5.5¢

-90% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 6%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

10 of 18 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Over 95%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over95%

Under6%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over8 traders

Total Value$8.2K

Total Shares8,332

Combined PnL+$3.8K

Under10 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares9,522

Combined PnL$-4.4K

Over — 44%Under — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpOver 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrOver 56% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 56% · 18

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 25.3¢	$1.4K	$4.1K	+$2.6K	49% 4708-4979 (9687)
TO topdogbigboi	Overavg 70.9¢	$1.7K	$2.2K	+$525.3	39% 1592-2508 (4100)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Underavg 60.1¢	$3.3K	$1.8K	$-1.5K	52% 2509-2300 (4809)
RN1	Overavg 46.2¢	$620.06	$1.1K	+$443.46	54% 6040-5116 (11156)
poshposh	Overavg 66.2¢	$468	$646.9	+$178.91	49% 1346-1426 (2772)
WA WagerWizard	Overavg 91.4¢	$126.18	$130.45	+$4.26	52% 249-233 (482)
ZZ Zzzz87CTR	Underavg 84.4¢	$1.6K	$95	$-1.5K	58% 115-85 (200)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Underavg 32¢	$517.27	$88.95	-$428.32	38% 1372-2254 (3626)
nigiri99<$100	Overavg 17¢	$9.35	$51.97	+$42.62	50% 747-737 (1484)
VE VenusianCTR	Underavg 31.5¢	$213.29	$37.27	-$176.01	38% 1372-2226 (3598)
LI LimousinCTR	Underavg 31¢	$175.68	$31.15	-$144.53	38% 1352-2201 (3553)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Underavg 83¢	$499.99	$30.12	-$469.87	38% 3837-6288 (10125)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Underavg 32.7¢	$139.94	$23.53	-$116.41	38% 1374-2204 (3578)
UE uehehe7haha2hihia3jkst9<$100	Overavg 62¢	$9	$13.78	+$4.79	62% 68-42 (110)
PA pauleta23<$100	Overavg 95¢	$10	$9.95	-$0.05	43% 568-764 (1332)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 5.4¢	$17.03	$7.51	+$30.48	48% 2573-2776 (5349)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Underavg 84.5¢	$83.65	$4.95	-$78.7	48% 487-523 (1010)
SecondhandvinylCTR<$100	Underavg 16¢	$1.07	$0.37	-$0.7	78% 389-112 (501)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$1,446.58

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$2.6K

Record

49%

4708-4979 (9687)

topdogbigboi

Over

Invested

$1,692.52

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$525.3

Record

39%

1592-2508 (4100)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Under

Invested

$3,322.74

Value

$1.8K

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

52%

2509-2300 (4809)

RN1

Over

Invested

$620.06

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$443.46

Record

54%

6040-5116 (11156)

poshposh

Over

Invested

$468

Value

$646.9

PnL

+$178.91

Record

49%

1346-1426 (2772)

WagerWizard

Over

Invested

$126.18

Value

$130.45

PnL

+$4.26

Record

52%

249-233 (482)

Zzzz87CTR

Under

Invested

$1,603.89

Value

$95

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

58%

115-85 (200)

LightParadoxCTR

Under

Invested

$517.27

Value

$88.95

PnL

-$428.32

Record

38%

1372-2254 (3626)

nigiri99<$100

Over

Invested

$9.35

Value

$51.97

PnL

+$42.62

Record

50%

747-737 (1484)

VenusianCTR

Under

Invested

$213.29

Value

$37.27

PnL

-$176.01

Record

38%

1372-2226 (3598)

LimousinCTR

Under

Invested

$175.68

Value

$31.15

PnL

-$144.53

Record

38%

1352-2201 (3553)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Under

Invested

$499.99

Value

$30.12

PnL

-$469.87

Record

38%

3837-6288 (10125)

MadridTimeCTR

Under

Invested

$139.94

Value

$23.53

PnL

-$116.41

Record

38%

1374-2204 (3578)

uehehe7haha2hihia3jkst9<$100

Over

Invested

Value

$13.78

PnL

+$4.79

Record

62%

68-42 (110)

pauleta23<$100

Over

Invested

$10

Value

$9.95

PnL

-$0.05

Record

43%

568-764 (1332)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$17.03

Value

$7.51

PnL

+$30.48

Record

48%

2573-2776 (5349)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$83.65

Value

$4.95

PnL

-$78.7

Record

48%

487-523 (1010)

SecondhandvinylCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.07

Value

$0.37

PnL

-$0.7

Record

78%

389-112 (501)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 6%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

10 of 18 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Over 95%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpOver 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrOver 56% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 56% · 18

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance6.8%

5.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1369.75

Max Loss

-$100.00

1469.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.