Spain leading at halftime?

9 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (69%) · No at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 69%

Total Value

$2.9K

Combined PnL

-$804.56

Smart Money Entry

81.1¢ → 100¢

+23% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 13 top traders (69%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares2,906

Combined PnL-$159.94

Yes4 traders

Total Value$6.86

Total Shares2,245

Combined PnL-$644.62

No — 69%Yes — 31%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-14 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

69% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 86% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000No 69% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 86.4¢	$1.6K	$1.1K	-$561	48% 4819-5125 (9944)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 61.9¢	$409.24	$660	+$250.76	46% 1234-1428 (2662)
PV pvc975	Noavg 99.9¢	$457.17	$457.17	+$0	98% 542-12 (554)
MA MadridTime	Noavg 85¢	$308.42	$362.67	+$54.25	38% 1416-2272 (3688)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382	Noavg 62¢	$73.89	$119.05	+$45.17	47% 507-561 (1068)
LI LightParadox<$100	Noavg 70¢	$65.24	$93.15	+$27.91	38% 1425-2328 (3753)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Noavg 74.4¢	$56.87	$76.14	+$19.26	52% 2587-2373 (4960)
alpheclabs2<$100	Noavg 97¢	$62.16	$64.02	+$1.86	45% 378-471 (849)
38 38791873984189CTR	Yesavg 33.1¢	$613.01	$5.46	-$222.07	48% 4056-4455 (8511)
LI Limousin<$100	Noavg 63¢	$3.15	$5	+$1.85	38% 1401-2279 (3680)
MI MinevaJCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.6¢	$42.56	$0.76	-$41.8	31% 57-127 (184)
SU suntoriCTR	Yesavg 37.8¢	$314.92	$0.4	-$305.54	46% 3397-3944 (7341)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Yesavg 31.2¢	$75.45	$0.24	-$75.21	55% 1999-1665 (3664)

Flaznorp

Invested

$1,629.56

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$561

Record

48%

4819-5125 (9944)

SnakeBall

Invested

$409.24

Value

$660

PnL

+$250.76

Record

46%

1234-1428 (2662)

pvc975

Invested

$457.17

Value

$457.17

PnL

+$0

Record

98%

542-12 (554)

MadridTime

Invested

$308.42

Value

$362.67

PnL

+$54.25

Record

38%

1416-2272 (3688)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382

Invested

$73.89

Value

$119.05

PnL

+$45.17

Record

47%

507-561 (1068)

LightParadox<$100

Invested

$65.24

Value

$93.15

PnL

+$27.91

Record

38%

1425-2328 (3753)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Invested

$56.87

Value

$76.14

PnL

+$19.26

Record

52%

2587-2373 (4960)

alpheclabs2<$100

Invested

$62.16

Value

$64.02

PnL

+$1.86

Record

45%

378-471 (849)

38791873984189CTR

Yes

Invested

$613.01

Value

$5.46

PnL

-$222.07

Record

48%

4056-4455 (8511)

Limousin<$100

Invested

$3.15

Value

PnL

+$1.85

Record

38%

1401-2279 (3680)

MinevaJCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$42.56

Value

$0.76

PnL

-$41.8

Record

31%

57-127 (184)

suntoriCTR

Yes

Invested

$314.92

Value

$0.4

PnL

-$305.54

Record

46%

3397-3944 (7341)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$75.45

Value

$0.24

PnL

-$75.21

Record

55%

1999-1665 (3664)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 13 top traders (69%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-14 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

69% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 86% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000No 69% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.