Spain vs. England: Draw at halftime?

11 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold No (65%) · No at 100¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 65%

Total Value

$8.3K

Combined PnL

$3.0K

Smart Money Entry

51.6¢ → 100¢

+94% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 17 top traders (65%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$6.9K

Total Shares7,041

Combined PnL+$3.8K

Yes6 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares4,604

Combined PnL-$776.15

No — 65%Yes — 35%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

65% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 56% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000No 65% · 17

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MI MinevaJ	Noavg 60.4¢	$2.2K	$3.0K	+$1.2K	31% 57-127 (184)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 39.2¢	$738.86	$1.8K	+$1.1K	52% 2587-2373 (4960)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Yesavg 40.6¢	$1.2K	$1.5K	+$232.04	48% 4819-5125 (9944)
NO NordhavenCap	Noavg 67¢	$690	$1.0K	+$336.74	34% 127-245 (372)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Noavg 24.9¢	$308.26	$492.36	+$702.94	55% 1999-1665 (3664)
TO topdogbigboi	Noavg 27.5¢	$67.92	$227.84	+$159.92	39% 1657-2634 (4291)
38 38791873984189	Noavg 47.5¢	$442.69	$155.69	+$278.06	48% 4056-4455 (8511)
NO NotJump<$100	Noavg 23¢	$11.5	$48.5	+$37	49% 1197-1222 (2419)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 83¢	$19.32	$23.27	+$3.95	38% 3874-6342 (10216)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Noavg 90¢	$21.16	$22.8	+$1.65	42% 762-1074 (1836)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Noavg 62¢	$8.16	$12.76	+$4.61	47% 507-561 (1068)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 62¢	$3.1	$4.85	+$1.75	57% 702-540 (1242)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Yesavg 17¢	$8.5	$1.5	-$7	53% 7602-6693 (14295)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Yesavg 40¢	$962.57	$1.2	-$961.37	38% 1425-2328 (3753)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100	Yesavg 38¢	$1.94	$0.15	-$1.78	50% 107-107 (214)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Yesavg 40¢	$28.56	$0.04	-$28.52	38% 1416-2272 (3688)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 31.2¢	$7.95	$0	-$9.51	46% 3397-3944 (7341)

MinevaJ

Invested

$2,226.31

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

31%

57-127 (184)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$738.86

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

52%

2587-2373 (4960)

FlaznorpCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,238.09

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$232.04

Record

48%

4819-5125 (9944)

NordhavenCap

Invested

$690

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$336.74

Record

34%

127-245 (372)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Invested

$308.26

Value

$492.36

PnL

+$702.94

Record

55%

1999-1665 (3664)

topdogbigboi

Invested

$67.92

Value

$227.84

PnL

+$159.92

Record

39%

1657-2634 (4291)

38791873984189

Invested

$442.69

Value

$155.69

PnL

+$278.06

Record

48%

4056-4455 (8511)

NotJump<$100

Invested

$11.5

Value

$48.5

PnL

+$37

Record

49%

1197-1222 (2419)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$19.32

Value

$23.27

PnL

+$3.95

Record

38%

3874-6342 (10216)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Invested

$21.16

Value

$22.8

PnL

+$1.65

Record

42%

762-1074 (1836)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

Invested

$8.16

Value

$12.76

PnL

+$4.61

Record

47%

507-561 (1068)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$3.1

Value

$4.85

PnL

+$1.75

Record

57%

702-540 (1242)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.5

Value

$1.5

PnL

-$7

Record

53%

7602-6693 (14295)

LightParadoxCTR

Yes

Invested

$962.57

Value

$1.2

PnL

-$961.37

Record

38%

1425-2328 (3753)

hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.94

Value

$0.15

PnL

-$1.78

Record

50%

107-107 (214)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$28.56

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$28.52

Record

38%

1416-2272 (3688)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.95

Value

PnL

-$9.51

Record

46%

3397-3944 (7341)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 17 top traders (65%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

65% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 56% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000No 65% · 17

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.