Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (100%). 16 of 24 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

England leading at halftime?

16 of 24 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 0.5¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 15

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$5.6K

Combined PnL

$-4.2K

Smart Money Entry

70.6¢ → 0.5¢

-99% since entry · 16 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

16 of 24 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 100%)16 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No16 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares8,470

Combined PnL$-4.2K

Yes8 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares5,236

Combined PnL-$8.16

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 71.5¢	$5.3K	$1.8K	$-3.5K	48% 4769-5064 (9833)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Noavg 73.7¢	$1.3K	$1.5K	+$150.78	52% 2556-2350 (4906)
MI MinevaJ	Yesavg 31.6¢	$1.6K	$916.37	+$146.67	29% 50-123 (173)
TO topdogbigboi	Yesavg 85.2¢	$469.97	$438.17	-$31.8	39% 1625-2578 (4203)
38 38791873984189	Yesavg 76.2¢	$668.75	$415.16	+$229.85	48% 4016-4413 (8429)
NO NordhavenCap	Yesavg 45¢	$470	$128.11	-$335.69	34% 127-245 (372)
SU suntori<$100	Yesavg 94.7¢	$95.23	$93.48	-$1.75	46% 3371-3906 (7277)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Noavg 66¢	$94.59	$79.54	-$15.05	35% 659-1202 (1861)
LR lryyy<$100	Yesavg 66.5¢	$64.25	$74.05	+$9.8	46% 1011-1210 (2221)
alpheclabs2<$100	Yesavg 69¢	$50.23	$55.32	+$5.1	45% 376-463 (839)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Noavg 72.7¢	$321.64	$26.53	-$295.11	38% 1406-2304 (3710)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Noavg 72¢	$23.49	$23.33	-$0.16	38% 1398-2248 (3646)
MA manoamano<$100	Yesavg 34¢	$48.73	$17.57	-$30.34	54% 45-38 (83)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Noavg 71¢	$23.01	$16.69	-$6.32	46% 1216-1411 (2627)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Noavg 76¢	$37.6	$12.34	-$14.52	48% 2617-2816 (5433)
SL SlickRick123CTR<$100	Noavg 25¢	$6.1	$11.81	+$5.71	38% 503-829 (1332)
RN1CTR<$100	Noavg 71¢	$9.94	$7.21	-$2.73	54% 6080-5160 (11240)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Noavg 13¢	$2.99	$5.52	+$2.53	38% 3857-6319 (10176)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Noavg 76¢	$4.13	$4.1	-$0.03	38% 1379-2246 (3625)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Noavg 68.4¢	$1.0K	$3.93	-$455.74	55% 1995-1659 (3654)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Noavg 71¢	$2.45	$1.78	-$0.67	48% 495-537 (1032)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Noavg 10¢	$1.1	$1.32	+$0.22	46% 900-1068 (1968)
SH shiifooCTR<$100	Noavg 30.7¢	$50.71	$0.83	-$49.88	60% 1472-974 (2446)
0X 0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000CTR<$100	Noavg 67.9¢	$26.64	$0.2	-$26.44	29% 101-244 (345)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$5,287.01

Value

$1.8K

PnL

$-3.5K

Record

48%

4769-5064 (9833)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Invested

$1,339.17

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$150.78

Record

52%

2556-2350 (4906)

MinevaJ

Yes

Invested

$1,635.86

Value

$916.37

PnL

+$146.67

Record

29%

50-123 (173)

topdogbigboi

Yes

Invested

$469.97

Value

$438.17

PnL

-$31.8

Record

39%

1625-2578 (4203)

38791873984189

Yes

Invested

$668.75

Value

$415.16

PnL

+$229.85

Record

48%

4016-4413 (8429)

NordhavenCap

Yes

Invested

$470

Value

$128.11

PnL

-$335.69

Record

34%

127-245 (372)

suntori<$100

Yes

Invested

$95.23

Value

$93.48

PnL

-$1.75

Record

46%

3371-3906 (7277)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Invested

$94.59

Value

$79.54

PnL

-$15.05

Record

35%

659-1202 (1861)

lryyy<$100

Yes

Invested

$64.25

Value

$74.05

PnL

+$9.8

Record

46%

1011-1210 (2221)

alpheclabs2<$100

Yes

Invested

$50.23

Value

$55.32

PnL

+$5.1

Record

45%

376-463 (839)

LightParadoxCTR

Invested

$321.64

Value

$26.53

PnL

-$295.11

Record

38%

1406-2304 (3710)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Invested

$23.49

Value

$23.33

PnL

-$0.16

Record

38%

1398-2248 (3646)

manoamano<$100

Yes

Invested

$48.73

Value

$17.57

PnL

-$30.34

Record

54%

45-38 (83)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Invested

$23.01

Value

$16.69

PnL

-$6.32

Record

46%

1216-1411 (2627)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Invested

$37.6

Value

$12.34

PnL

-$14.52

Record

48%

2617-2816 (5433)

SlickRick123CTR<$100

Invested

$6.1

Value

$11.81

PnL

+$5.71

Record

38%

503-829 (1332)

RN1CTR<$100

Invested

$9.94

Value

$7.21

PnL

-$2.73

Record

54%

6080-5160 (11240)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Invested

$2.99

Value

$5.52

PnL

+$2.53

Record

38%

3857-6319 (10176)

LimousinCTR<$100

Invested

$4.13

Value

$4.1

PnL

-$0.03

Record

38%

1379-2246 (3625)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Invested

$1,031.77

Value

$3.93

PnL

-$455.74

Record

55%

1995-1659 (3654)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Invested

$2.45

Value

$1.78

PnL

-$0.67

Record

48%

495-537 (1032)

smithagentCTR<$100

Invested

$1.1

Value

$1.32

PnL

+$0.22

Record

46%

900-1068 (1968)

shiifooCTR<$100

Invested

$50.71

Value

$0.83

PnL

-$49.88

Record

60%

1472-974 (2446)

0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000CTR<$100

Invested

$26.64

Value

$0.2

PnL

-$26.44

Record

29%

101-244 (345)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

16 of 24 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 100%)16 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.6%

0.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6253.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

6353.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.