Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 England?

7 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 97¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 15

Yes3¢No97¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

$50.69

Smart Money Entry

95.7¢ → 96.7¢

+1% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 14 top traders (50%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares2,616

Combined PnL+$21.82

Yes7 traders

Total Value$144.57

Total Shares4,076

Combined PnL+$28.87

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+16 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

54% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 54% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI Limousin	Noavg 96.4¢	$727.93	$725.43	-$2.49	38% 1401-2279 (3680)
GC GC-P	Noavg 94¢	$469.99	$482.49	+$12.5	43% 577-770 (1347)
MA MadridTime	Noavg 96.3¢	$451.5	$452.71	+$1.21	38% 1416-2272 (3688)
LI LightParadox	Noavg 96.4¢	$353.83	$354.35	+$0.52	38% 1425-2328 (3753)
RN1	Noavg 96.4¢	$274.05	$277.7	+$3.65	54% 6095-5185 (11280)
NM NM-P	Noavg 93.9¢	$230.38	$236.83	+$6.44	59% 3971-2747 (6718)
LO lovedudleyCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$54.05	$67.08	+$18.03	20% 30-119 (149)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.7¢	$28.1	$28.48	+$0.38	55% 1999-1665 (3664)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$26.49	$21.79	+$10.72	48% 4056-4455 (8511)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$12.35	$16	+$3.64	38% 3874-6342 (10216)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 96.5¢	$15.96	$15.96	-$0	41% 1218-1750 (2968)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 6¢	$10.94	$6.38	-$4.56	46% 3397-3944 (7341)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$3.77	$4.55	+$0.78	48% 4819-5125 (9944)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Yesavg 5¢	$0.41	$0.29	-$0.12	57% 3683-2778 (6461)

Limousin

Invested

$727.93

Value

$725.43

PnL

-$2.49

Record

38%

1401-2279 (3680)

GC-P

Invested

$469.99

Value

$482.49

PnL

+$12.5

Record

43%

577-770 (1347)

MadridTime

Invested

$451.5

Value

$452.71

PnL

+$1.21

Record

38%

1416-2272 (3688)

LightParadox

Invested

$353.83

Value

$354.35

PnL

+$0.52

Record

38%

1425-2328 (3753)

RN1

Invested

$274.05

Value

$277.7

PnL

+$3.65

Record

54%

6095-5185 (11280)

NM-P

Invested

$230.38

Value

$236.83

PnL

+$6.44

Record

59%

3971-2747 (6718)

lovedudleyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$54.05

Value

$67.08

PnL

+$18.03

Record

20%

30-119 (149)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$28.1

Value

$28.48

PnL

+$0.38

Record

55%

1999-1665 (3664)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$26.49

Value

$21.79

PnL

+$10.72

Record

48%

4056-4455 (8511)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.35

Value

$16

PnL

+$3.64

Record

38%

3874-6342 (10216)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$15.96

Value

$15.96

PnL

-$0

Record

41%

1218-1750 (2968)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.94

Value

$6.38

PnL

-$4.56

Record

46%

3397-3944 (7341)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.77

Value

$4.55

PnL

+$0.78

Record

48%

4819-5125 (9944)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.41

Value

$0.29

PnL

-$0.12

Record

57%

3683-2778 (6461)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 14 top traders (50%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+16 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

54% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 54% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.8%

96.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.