Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 England?

8 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (62%) · No at 90¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 15

Yes11¢No89¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 62%

Total Value

$3.8K

Combined PnL

$273.05

Smart Money Entry

89.7¢ → 89.5¢

+0% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 90%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 13 top traders (62%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes11%

No90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares3,516

Combined PnL-$16.89

Yes5 traders

Total Value$628.05

Total Shares5,653

Combined PnL+$289.94

No — 62%Yes — 38%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+24 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 64% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 89.1¢	$944.38	$948.68	+$4.3	48% 4819-5125 (9944)
NM NM-P	Noavg 89.9¢	$945.11	$935.95	-$9.17	59% 3971-2747 (6718)
GC GC-P	Noavg 90¢	$900	$890	-$10	43% 577-770 (1347)
LO lovedudleyCTR	Yesavg 2.7¢	$54.05	$220	+$165.95	20% 30-119 (149)
SU suntoriCTR	Yesavg 10.1¢	$157.1	$171.67	+$14.57	46% 3397-3944 (7341)
RN1	Noavg 89¢	$116.91	$117.57	+$0.66	54% 6095-5185 (11280)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Yesavg 11¢	$120.11	$114.94	-$5.17	55% 1999-1665 (3664)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Noavg 91¢	$96.26	$94.14	-$2.12	35% 669-1223 (1892)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 89¢	$89	$89	+$0	53% 1989-1729 (3718)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$71.49	$71.15	+$76.66	48% 4056-4455 (8511)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Noavg 90¢	$54.9	$54.29	-$0.61	46% 1234-1428 (2662)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$12.35	$50.28	+$37.93	38% 3874-6342 (10216)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 89¢	$7.77	$7.82	+$0.04	41% 1218-1750 (2968)

Flaznorp

Invested

$944.38

Value

$948.68

PnL

+$4.3

Record

48%

4819-5125 (9944)

NM-P

Invested

$945.11

Value

$935.95

PnL

-$9.17

Record

59%

3971-2747 (6718)

GC-P

Invested

$900

Value

$890

PnL

-$10

Record

43%

577-770 (1347)

lovedudleyCTR

Yes

Invested

$54.05

Value

$220

PnL

+$165.95

Record

20%

30-119 (149)

suntoriCTR

Yes

Invested

$157.1

Value

$171.67

PnL

+$14.57

Record

46%

3397-3944 (7341)

RN1

Invested

$116.91

Value

$117.57

PnL

+$0.66

Record

54%

6095-5185 (11280)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Yes

Invested

$120.11

Value

$114.94

PnL

-$5.17

Record

55%

1999-1665 (3664)

LuckyLoo<$100

Invested

$96.26

Value

$94.14

PnL

-$2.12

Record

35%

669-1223 (1892)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$89

Value

$89

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

1989-1729 (3718)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$71.49

Value

$71.15

PnL

+$76.66

Record

48%

4056-4455 (8511)

SnakeBall<$100

Invested

$54.9

Value

$54.29

PnL

-$0.61

Record

46%

1234-1428 (2662)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.35

Value

$50.28

PnL

+$37.93

Record

38%

3874-6342 (10216)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$7.77

Value

$7.82

PnL

+$0.04

Record

41%

1218-1750 (2968)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 90%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 13 top traders (62%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+24 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 64% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.9%

89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.