Exact Score: Spain 1 - 2 England?

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (45%) · No at 87¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 15

Yes14¢No86¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 45%

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

$278.63

Smart Money Entry

91.8¢ → 86.5¢

-6% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 87%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes14%

No87%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares1,828

Combined PnL-$123.58

Yes6 traders

Total Value$641.15

Total Shares4,338

Combined PnL+$402.21

No — 45%Yes — 55%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NM NM-P	Noavg 92.7¢	$797.3	$731.27	-$66.03	59% 3971-2747 (6718)
GC GC-P	Noavg 92¢	$504.69	$466.27	-$38.42	43% 577-770 (1347)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Yesavg 6.9¢	$182.04	$398.32	+$216.28	48% 4819-5125 (9944)
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 92¢	$182.51	$168.62	-$13.89	35% 669-1223 (1892)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 90.2¢	$105.9	$99.81	-$6.09	46% 1234-1428 (2662)
38 38791873984189CTR	Yesavg 2.7¢	$253.53	$98.29	+$90.28	48% 4056-4455 (8511)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100	Noavg 85.7¢	$88.28	$89.13	+$0.85	55% 1999-1665 (3664)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$12.35	$68.57	+$56.21	38% 3874-6342 (10216)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Yesavg 6.6¢	$18.68	$42.5	+$23.82	48% 2643-2871 (5514)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.2¢	$17.7	$33.32	+$15.61	46% 3397-3944 (7341)
RN1CTR<$100	Yesavg 13¢	$0.15	$0.16	+$0.01	54% 6095-5185 (11280)

NM-P

Invested

$797.3

Value

$731.27

PnL

-$66.03

Record

59%

3971-2747 (6718)

GC-P

Invested

$504.69

Value

$466.27

PnL

-$38.42

Record

43%

577-770 (1347)

FlaznorpCTR

Yes

Invested

$182.04

Value

$398.32

PnL

+$216.28

Record

48%

4819-5125 (9944)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$182.51

Value

$168.62

PnL

-$13.89

Record

35%

669-1223 (1892)

SnakeBall

Invested

$105.9

Value

$99.81

PnL

-$6.09

Record

46%

1234-1428 (2662)

38791873984189CTR

Yes

Invested

$253.53

Value

$98.29

PnL

+$90.28

Record

48%

4056-4455 (8511)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100

Invested

$88.28

Value

$89.13

PnL

+$0.85

Record

55%

1999-1665 (3664)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.35

Value

$68.57

PnL

+$56.21

Record

38%

3874-6342 (10216)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.68

Value

$42.5

PnL

+$23.82

Record

48%

2643-2871 (5514)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.7

Value

$33.32

PnL

+$15.61

Record

46%

3397-3944 (7341)

RN1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.15

Value

$0.16

PnL

+$0.01

Record

54%

6095-5185 (11280)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 87%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.0%

86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$13.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.