Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 England?

5 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (42%) · No at 83¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 15

Yes18¢No82¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 42%

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

$490.7

Smart Money Entry

88¢ → 82.5¢

-6% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 83%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 12 top traders (42%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes18%

No83%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$928.78

Total Shares1,132

Combined PnL-$67.48

Yes7 traders

Total Value$758.2

Total Shares4,171

Combined PnL+$558.18

No — 42%Yes — 58%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Noavg 89¢	$641.69	$591.22	-$50.47	54% 6095-5185 (11280)
LO lovedudleyCTR	Yesavg 2.7¢	$54.05	$250.59	+$263.4	20% 30-119 (149)
GL glennyorkshireCTR	Yesavg 11¢	$115.31	$188.69	+$73.38	47% 236-261 (497)
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 83.1¢	$145.05	$144.01	-$1.04	35% 669-1223 (1892)
GC GC-P	Noavg 89¢	$145.75	$134.28	-$11.46	43% 577-770 (1347)
38 38791873984189CTR	Yesavg 2.8¢	$28.32	$127.01	+$137.04	48% 4056-4455 (8511)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$12.35	$82.28	+$69.93	38% 3874-6342 (10216)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Yesavg 16.5¢	$72.49	$74.7	+$2.21	48% 4819-5125 (9944)
NM NM-P<$100	Noavg 88.3¢	$59.37	$55.16	-$4.21	59% 3971-2747 (6718)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 11.1¢	$16.33	$26.58	+$10.25	46% 3397-3944 (7341)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Yesavg 13.8¢	$6.38	$8.34	+$1.96	55% 1999-1665 (3664)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Noavg 88¢	$4.4	$4.1	-$0.3	48% 2643-2871 (5514)

RN1

Invested

$641.69

Value

$591.22

PnL

-$50.47

Record

54%

6095-5185 (11280)

lovedudleyCTR

Yes

Invested

$54.05

Value

$250.59

PnL

+$263.4

Record

20%

30-119 (149)

glennyorkshireCTR

Yes

Invested

$115.31

Value

$188.69

PnL

+$73.38

Record

47%

236-261 (497)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$145.05

Value

$144.01

PnL

-$1.04

Record

35%

669-1223 (1892)

GC-P

Invested

$145.75

Value

$134.28

PnL

-$11.46

Record

43%

577-770 (1347)

38791873984189CTR

Yes

Invested

$28.32

Value

$127.01

PnL

+$137.04

Record

48%

4056-4455 (8511)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.35

Value

$82.28

PnL

+$69.93

Record

38%

3874-6342 (10216)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$72.49

Value

$74.7

PnL

+$2.21

Record

48%

4819-5125 (9944)

NM-P<$100

Invested

$59.37

Value

$55.16

PnL

-$4.21

Record

59%

3971-2747 (6718)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.33

Value

$26.58

PnL

+$10.25

Record

46%

3397-3944 (7341)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.38

Value

$8.34

PnL

+$1.96

Record

55%

1999-1665 (3664)

ferdinand2<$100

Invested

$4.4

Value

$4.1

PnL

-$0.3

Record

48%

2643-2871 (5514)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 83%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 12 top traders (42%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.2%

82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.