Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 England?

4 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (36%) · No at 100¢ · $719 held · ended Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 36%

Total Value

$718.87

Combined PnL

$202.69

Smart Money Entry

92.5¢ → 100¢

+8% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 11 top traders (36%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$351.14

Total Shares3,979

Combined PnL+$211.68

No4 traders

Total Value$367.73

Total Shares368

Combined PnL-$8.99

Yes — 64%No — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 64% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LO lovedudleyCTR	Yesavg 2.7¢	$54.05	$274	+$219.95	20% 30-119 (149)
LI LightParadox	Noavg 93¢	$180.48	$193.96	+$13.49	38% 1425-2328 (3753)
NM NM-P<$100	Noavg 92¢	$93.77	$92.68	-$1.09	59% 3971-2747 (6718)
GC GC-P<$100	Noavg 92¢	$96.96	$75.16	-$21.8	43% 577-770 (1347)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$12.35	$62.63	+$50.27	38% 3874-6342 (10216)
MA MadridTime<$100	Noavg 93¢	$5.51	$5.92	+$0.41	38% 1416-2272 (3688)
38 38791873984189CTR	Yesavg 2.7¢	$143.51	$5.52	-$2.91	48% 4056-4455 (8511)
DV dv-pmCTR<$100	Yesavg 9¢	$3.6	$5.48	+$1.88	46% 46-53 (99)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 7¢	$1.61	$3.15	+$1.54	41% 1218-1750 (2968)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Yesavg 8.3¢	$56.67	$0.34	-$56.33	48% 4819-5125 (9944)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Yesavg 8.4¢	$2.74	$0.02	-$2.72	55% 1999-1665 (3664)

lovedudleyCTR

Yes

Invested

$54.05

Value

$274

PnL

+$219.95

Record

20%

30-119 (149)

LightParadox

Invested

$180.48

Value

$193.96

PnL

+$13.49

Record

38%

1425-2328 (3753)

NM-P<$100

Invested

$93.77

Value

$92.68

PnL

-$1.09

Record

59%

3971-2747 (6718)

GC-P<$100

Invested

$96.96

Value

$75.16

PnL

-$21.8

Record

43%

577-770 (1347)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.35

Value

$62.63

PnL

+$50.27

Record

38%

3874-6342 (10216)

MadridTime<$100

Invested

$5.51

Value

$5.92

PnL

+$0.41

Record

38%

1416-2272 (3688)

38791873984189CTR

Yes

Invested

$143.51

Value

$5.52

PnL

-$2.91

Record

48%

4056-4455 (8511)

dv-pmCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.6

Value

$5.48

PnL

+$1.88

Record

46%

46-53 (99)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.61

Value

$3.15

PnL

+$1.54

Record

41%

1218-1750 (2968)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$56.67

Value

$0.34

PnL

-$56.33

Record

48%

4819-5125 (9944)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.74

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$2.72

Record

55%

1999-1665 (3664)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 11 top traders (36%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 64% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.