Exact Score: Spain 0 - 2 England?

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 88¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 15

Yes12¢No88¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

$250.39

Smart Money Entry

91.7¢ → 87.8¢

-4% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 88%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes12%

No88%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$401.82

Total Shares3,246

Combined PnL+$276.05

No5 traders

Total Value$648.91

Total Shares734

Combined PnL-$25.66

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Yesavg 4.3¢	$102.22	$288.42	+$186.2	48% 4819-5125 (9944)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 93.4¢	$261.8	$245.27	-$16.54	46% 1234-1428 (2662)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Noavg 91¢	$186.65	$181.26	-$5.39	55% 1999-1665 (3664)
LI Limousin	Noavg 89.1¢	$130.31	$128.53	-$1.78	38% 1401-2279 (3680)
NM NM-P<$100	Noavg 96.1¢	$62.46	$60.2	-$2.26	59% 3971-2747 (6718)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$12.35	$57.14	+$44.79	38% 3874-6342 (10216)
38 38791873984189CTR	Yesavg 5.5¢	$469.06	$48.76	+$40.65	48% 4056-4455 (8511)
RN1<$100	Noavg 86.7¢	$33.34	$33.65	+$0.31	54% 6095-5185 (11280)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Yesavg 4.9¢	$2.94	$7.29	+$4.35	48% 2643-2871 (5514)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 8.6¢	$0.15	$0.21	+$0.06	41% 1218-1750 (2968)

FlaznorpCTR

Yes

Invested

$102.22

Value

$288.42

PnL

+$186.2

Record

48%

4819-5125 (9944)

SnakeBall

Invested

$261.8

Value

$245.27

PnL

-$16.54

Record

46%

1234-1428 (2662)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Invested

$186.65

Value

$181.26

PnL

-$5.39

Record

55%

1999-1665 (3664)

Limousin

Invested

$130.31

Value

$128.53

PnL

-$1.78

Record

38%

1401-2279 (3680)

NM-P<$100

Invested

$62.46

Value

$60.2

PnL

-$2.26

Record

59%

3971-2747 (6718)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.35

Value

$57.14

PnL

+$44.79

Record

38%

3874-6342 (10216)

38791873984189CTR

Yes

Invested

$469.06

Value

$48.76

PnL

+$40.65

Record

48%

4056-4455 (8511)

RN1<$100

Invested

$33.34

Value

$33.65

PnL

+$0.31

Record

54%

6095-5185 (11280)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.94

Value

$7.29

PnL

+$4.35

Record

48%

2643-2871 (5514)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.15

Value

$0.21

PnL

+$0.06

Record

41%

1218-1750 (2968)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 88%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.3%

87.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.93

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.