Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 England?

6 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold No (38%) · No at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 38%

Total Value

$2.8K

Combined PnL

$215.96

Smart Money Entry

93.7¢ → 100¢

+7% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 16 top traders (38%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares2,543

Combined PnL+$219.79

Yes10 traders

Total Value$271.54

Total Shares6,231

Combined PnL-$3.83

No — 38%Yes — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-19 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 88% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 63% · 16

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Noavg 90.7¢	$907	$999.5	+$92.5	55% 1999-1665 (3664)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 96¢	$9.8K	$955.52	+$127.4	48% 4819-5125 (9944)
GC GC-P	Noavg 95¢	$252.99	$262.71	+$9.72	43% 577-770 (1347)
NM NM-P	Noavg 95¢	$237.5	$223.75	-$13.75	59% 3971-2747 (6718)
LO lovedudleyCTR	Yesavg 50¢	$2.0K	$200	+$145.95	20% 30-119 (149)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Noavg 94¢	$47	$49.98	+$2.98	39% 1657-2634 (4291)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$12.35	$45.71	+$33.36	38% 3874-6342 (10216)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Noavg 96¢	$23.16	$24.11	+$0.95	48% 2643-2871 (5514)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 5¢	$9.52	$19.04	+$9.52	46% 3397-3944 (7341)
38 38791873984189CTR	Yesavg 3.2¢	$308.5	$5.26	+$17.21	48% 4056-4455 (8511)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Yesavg 8.8¢	$142.94	$0.81	-$142.13	38% 1425-2328 (3753)
RN1CTR<$100	Yesavg 3¢	$21.42	$0.36	-$21.06	54% 6095-5185 (11280)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.8¢	$20.4	$0.21	-$20.19	46% 1234-1428 (2662)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$13.89	$0.07	-$13.82	38% 1425-2300 (3725)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Yesavg 8.8¢	$10.19	$0.06	-$10.13	38% 1401-2279 (3680)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.4¢	$2.55	$0.02	-$2.53	38% 1416-2272 (3688)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Invested

$907

Value

$999.5

PnL

+$92.5

Record

55%

1999-1665 (3664)

Flaznorp

Invested

$9,811.99

Value

$955.52

PnL

+$127.4

Record

48%

4819-5125 (9944)

GC-P

Invested

$252.99

Value

$262.71

PnL

+$9.72

Record

43%

577-770 (1347)

NM-P

Invested

$237.5

Value

$223.75

PnL

-$13.75

Record

59%

3971-2747 (6718)

lovedudleyCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,000

Value

$200

PnL

+$145.95

Record

20%

30-119 (149)

topdogbigboi<$100

Invested

$47

Value

$49.98

PnL

+$2.98

Record

39%

1657-2634 (4291)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.35

Value

$45.71

PnL

+$33.36

Record

38%

3874-6342 (10216)

ferdinand2<$100

Invested

$23.16

Value

$24.11

PnL

+$0.95

Record

48%

2643-2871 (5514)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.52

Value

$19.04

PnL

+$9.52

Record

46%

3397-3944 (7341)

38791873984189CTR

Yes

Invested

$308.5

Value

$5.26

PnL

+$17.21

Record

48%

4056-4455 (8511)

LightParadoxCTR

Yes

Invested

$142.94

Value

$0.81

PnL

-$142.13

Record

38%

1425-2328 (3753)

RN1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.42

Value

$0.36

PnL

-$21.06

Record

54%

6095-5185 (11280)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.4

Value

$0.21

PnL

-$20.19

Record

46%

1234-1428 (2662)

VenusianCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.89

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$13.82

Record

38%

1425-2300 (3725)

LimousinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.19

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$10.13

Record

38%

1401-2279 (3680)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.55

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$2.53

Record

38%

1416-2272 (3688)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 16 top traders (38%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-19 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 88% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 63% · 16

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.