Exact Score: Cyprus 1 - 1 Montenegro?
8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 100¢ · $531 held · ended Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
No
10
No 80%
$530.66
-$9.63
87¢ → 100¢
+15% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
-8 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 84%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GC GC-P | Noavg 86¢ | $206.46 | $199.26 | -$7.2 | 42% 548-747 (1295) |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 86.7¢ | $172.23 | $164.85 | -$7.38 | 47% 1186-1362 (2548) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | $49.26 | $56.34 | +$7.08 | 37% 1336-2230 (3566) |
WA WagerWizard<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $43.86 | $45.49 | +$1.63 | 51% 238-233 (471) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Noavg 82¢ | $25.2 | $26.42 | +$1.22 | 49% 4635-4904 (9539) |
38 38791873984189 | Noavg 84.7¢ | $118.64 | $16.3 | +$19.18 | 48% 3953-4307 (8260) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | $13.64 | $14.11 | +$0.48 | 53% 2305-2071 (4376) |
PV pvc975<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $6.19 | $6.2 | +$0 | 98% 492-11 (503) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Yesavg 13.8¢ | $25.88 | $0.94 | -$24.94 | 46% 3240-3776 (7016) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 10¢ | $0.45 | $0.77 | +$0.32 | 39% 1558-2440 (3998) |
Invested
$206.46
Value
$199.26
PnL
-$7.2
Record
42%
548-747 (1295)
Invested
$172.23
Value
$164.85
PnL
-$7.38
Record
47%
1186-1362 (2548)
Invested
$49.26
Value
$56.34
PnL
+$7.08
Record
37%
1336-2230 (3566)
Invested
$43.86
Value
$45.49
PnL
+$1.63
Record
51%
238-233 (471)
Invested
$25.2
Value
$26.42
PnL
+$1.22
Record
49%
4635-4904 (9539)
Invested
$118.64
Value
$16.3
PnL
+$19.18
Record
48%
3953-4307 (8260)
Invested
$13.64
Value
$14.11
PnL
+$0.48
Record
53%
2305-2071 (4376)
Invested
$6.19
Value
$6.2
PnL
+$0
Record
98%
492-11 (503)
Invested
$25.88
Value
$0.94
PnL
-$24.94
Record
46%
3240-3776 (7016)
Invested
$0.45
Value
$0.77
PnL
+$0.32
Record
39%
1558-2440 (3998)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.