Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (84%). 12 of 19 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Belgium vs. Italy: O/U 4.5

12 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Under (63%) · Under at 17¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 15

Over84¢Under16¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 63%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.8K

Combined PnL

-$492.28

Smart Money Entry

23.8¢ → 16.5¢

-31% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 17%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

12 of 19 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Over 84%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over84%

Under17%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under12 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares10,917

Combined PnL-$615.06

Over7 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares1,893

Combined PnL+$122.78

Under — 63%Over — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Underavg 42.5¢	$3.1K	$1.6K	$-1.4K	52% 2587-2373 (4960)
└ Under leg	Underavg 42.5¢	$2.8K	$1.2K	$-1.7K
└ Over leg	Overavg 48.6¢	$262.83	$445.72	+$210.73
RN1ARB<$100	Overavg 50.8¢	$1.2K	$1.5K	+$288.71	54% 6095-5185 (11280)
└ Over leg	Overavg 50.8¢	$736.19	$1.2K	+$472.82
└ Under leg	Underavg 26.2¢	$498.38	$314.28	-$184.11
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 22.5¢	$1.3K	$1.1K	-$224.51	48% 4819-5125 (9944)
fxwd12345	Overavg 83¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$6.11	69% 59-27 (86)
VE VenusianCTR	Underavg 16.6¢	$458.71	$482.73	+$24.02	38% 1425-2300 (3725)
BI biying88888CTR	Underavg 50¢	$635	$222.25	-$412.75	43% 247-322 (569)
38 38791873984189	Overavg 83.1¢	$314.5	$152.49	-$23.47	48% 4056-4455 (8511)
SU suntori	Overavg 20¢	$30.47	$137.11	+$106.64	46% 3397-3944 (7341)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Overavg 73.5¢	$94.03	$115.17	+$21.13	55% 1999-1665 (3664)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Underavg 11.1¢	$75.92	$91.13	+$65.97	41% 147-213 (360)
NO NotJump<$100	Overavg 81.5¢	$76.38	$83.08	+$6.7	49% 1197-1222 (2419)
WA WagerWizard<$100	Overavg 66¢	$51.7	$64.62	+$12.92	52% 265-240 (505)
NO NordhavenCap<$100	Overavg 90¢	$82.36	$54.87	-$7.27	34% 127-245 (372)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 16.1¢	$36	$39.17	+$3.17	38% 1401-2279 (3680)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 28.1¢	$54.52	$33.98	-$20.54	38% 1425-2328 (3753)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Underavg 30.4¢	$57.62	$18.98	-$38.64	39% 1657-2634 (4291)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 15¢	$11.29	$11.67	+$0.38	41% 1218-1750 (2968)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 10¢	$7.32	$7.32	+$0	46% 1234-1428 (2662)
HY hydra1248CTR<$100	Underavg 84¢	$13.29	$2.37	-$10.92	73% 237-87 (324)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Underavg 15¢	$3.53	$2.35	-$1.18	35% 669-1223 (1892)
SecondhandvinylCTR<$100	Underavg 14¢	$0.7	$0.65	-$0.05	77% 398-118 (516)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Under

Invested

$3,105.92

Value

$1.6K

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

52%

2587-2373 (4960)

Both legs:

Under$2,809.5242.5¢$-1.7K

Over$262.8348.6¢+$210.73

RN1ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,234.57

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$288.71

Record

54%

6095-5185 (11280)

Both legs:

Over$736.1950.8¢+$472.82

Under$498.3826.2¢-$184.11

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$1,333.89

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$224.51

Record

48%

4819-5125 (9944)

fxwd12345

Over

Invested

$1,014.24

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$6.11

Record

69%

59-27 (86)

VenusianCTR

Under

Invested

$458.71

Value

$482.73

PnL

+$24.02

Record

38%

1425-2300 (3725)

biying88888CTR

Under

Invested

$635

Value

$222.25

PnL

-$412.75

Record

43%

247-322 (569)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$314.5

Value

$152.49

PnL

-$23.47

Record

48%

4056-4455 (8511)

suntori

Over

Invested

$30.47

Value

$137.11

PnL

+$106.64

Record

46%

3397-3944 (7341)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over

Invested

$94.03

Value

$115.17

PnL

+$21.13

Record

55%

1999-1665 (3664)

fooooolCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$75.92

Value

$91.13

PnL

+$65.97

Record

41%

147-213 (360)

NotJump<$100

Over

Invested

$76.38

Value

$83.08

PnL

+$6.7

Record

49%

1197-1222 (2419)

WagerWizard<$100

Over

Invested

$51.7

Value

$64.62

PnL

+$12.92

Record

52%

265-240 (505)

NordhavenCap<$100

Over

Invested

$82.36

Value

$54.87

PnL

-$7.27

Record

34%

127-245 (372)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$36

Value

$39.17

PnL

+$3.17

Record

38%

1401-2279 (3680)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$54.52

Value

$33.98

PnL

-$20.54

Record

38%

1425-2328 (3753)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$57.62

Value

$18.98

PnL

-$38.64

Record

39%

1657-2634 (4291)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$11.29

Value

$11.67

PnL

+$0.38

Record

41%

1218-1750 (2968)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$7.32

Value

$7.32

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

1234-1428 (2662)

hydra1248CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$13.29

Value

$2.37

PnL

-$10.92

Record

73%

237-87 (324)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.53

Value

$2.35

PnL

-$1.18

Record

35%

669-1223 (1892)

SecondhandvinylCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.7

Value

$0.65

PnL

-$0.05

Record

77%

398-118 (516)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 17%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

12 of 19 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Over 84%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance18.2%

16.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$448.79

Max Loss

-$100.00

548.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.