Spread: Italy (-1.5)

10 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Belgium (71%) · Belgium at 100¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 15

Italy<1¢Belgium>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Belgium

Consensus Traders

Belgium 71%

Total Value

$6.0K

Combined PnL

$247.09

Smart Money Entry

85.6¢ → 99.8¢

+17% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralBelgium at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Belgium

10 of 14 top traders (71%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Italy0%

Belgium100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Belgium10 traders

Total Value$6.0K

Total Shares5,999

Combined PnL+$779.68

Italy4 traders

Total Value$20.47

Total Shares4,170

Combined PnL-$532.59

Belgium — 71%Italy — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Belgium. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpBelgium 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrBelgium 60% · 10

Aligned

Top 1000Belgium 71% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Belgiumavg 85.8¢	$3.2K	$3.7K	+$502	52% 2587-2373 (4960)
FL Flaznorp	Belgiumavg 83.1¢	$1.2K	$1.5K	+$246.06	48% 4819-5125 (9944)
38 38791873984189	Belgiumavg 86.5¢	$279.32	$181.75	+$32.49	48% 4056-4455 (8511)
WA WagerWizard	Belgiumavg 95.2¢	$121.68	$127.41	+$5.73	52% 265-240 (505)
TO topdogbigboi	Belgiumavg 87¢	$107.82	$122.37	+$14.55	39% 1657-2634 (4291)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382	Belgiumavg 84.7¢	$99.6	$115.92	+$16.32	47% 507-561 (1068)
FO foooool<$100	Belgiumavg 87¢	$87	$99.5	+$12.5	41% 147-213 (360)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Belgiumavg 98.3¢	$1.6K	$91.04	-$58.87	55% 1999-1665 (3664)
NO NordhavenCap<$100	Belgiumavg 89¢	$53.89	$60.25	+$6.36	34% 127-245 (372)
dips.<$100	Belgiumavg 87¢	$17.4	$19.94	+$2.54	48% 1342-1442 (2784)
FR frohp5CTR	Italyavg 13.6¢	$350	$12.9	-$337.1	60% 1267-840 (2107)
10 10scatCTR	Italyavg 13.9¢	$195	$7	-$188	9% 57-545 (602)
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100	Italyavg 1¢	$1.29	$0.39	-$0.9	3% 12-343 (355)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Italyavg 11¢	$6.77	$0.18	-$6.59	46% 1234-1428 (2662)

GoalLineGhost

Belgium

Invested

$3,179.36

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$502

Record

52%

2587-2373 (4960)

Flaznorp

Belgium

Invested

$1,234.7

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$246.06

Record

48%

4819-5125 (9944)

38791873984189

Belgium

Invested

$279.32

Value

$181.75

PnL

+$32.49

Record

48%

4056-4455 (8511)

WagerWizard

Belgium

Invested

$121.68

Value

$127.41

PnL

+$5.73

Record

52%

265-240 (505)

topdogbigboi

Belgium

Invested

$107.82

Value

$122.37

PnL

+$14.55

Record

39%

1657-2634 (4291)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382

Belgium

Invested

$99.6

Value

$115.92

PnL

+$16.32

Record

47%

507-561 (1068)

foooool<$100

Belgium

Invested

$87

Value

$99.5

PnL

+$12.5

Record

41%

147-213 (360)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Belgium

Invested

$1,574.9

Value

$91.04

PnL

-$58.87

Record

55%

1999-1665 (3664)

NordhavenCap<$100

Belgium

Invested

$53.89

Value

$60.25

PnL

+$6.36

Record

34%

127-245 (372)

dips.<$100

Belgium

Invested

$17.4

Value

$19.94

PnL

+$2.54

Record

48%

1342-1442 (2784)

frohp5CTR

Italy

Invested

$350

Value

$12.9

PnL

-$337.1

Record

60%

1267-840 (2107)

10scatCTR

Italy

Invested

$195

Value

PnL

-$188

Record

57-545 (602)

SpringlyFawlCTR<$100

Italy

Invested

$1.29

Value

$0.39

PnL

-$0.9

Record

12-343 (355)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Italy

Invested

$6.77

Value

$0.18

PnL

-$6.59

Record

46%

1234-1428 (2662)

Research grade

NeutralBelgium at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Belgium

10 of 14 top traders (71%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Belgium. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpBelgium 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrBelgium 60% · 10

Aligned

Top 1000Belgium 71% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Belgium wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.