Belgium leading at halftime?

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 100¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 15

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$6.1K

Combined PnL

$329.31

Smart Money Entry

80.2¢ → 100¢

+25% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$6.1K

Total Shares6,125

Combined PnL+$399.6

No6 traders

Total Value$15.2

Total Shares2,649

Combined PnL-$70.29

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 50% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PE pelik	Yesavg 99.9¢	$3.7K	$3.7K	+$1.84	99% 1720-5 (1725)
FL Flaznorp	Yesavg 66.4¢	$2.2K	$1.7K	-$506.06	48% 4819-5125 (9944)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Yesavg 12.9¢	$144.73	$741.54	+$899	55% 1999-1665 (3664)
SU suntori<$100	Yesavg 88¢	$14.87	$16.89	+$2.02	46% 3397-3944 (7341)
PA pauleta23<$100	Yesavg 95¢	$10	$10.52	+$0.52	43% 580-772 (1352)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Yesavg 77¢	$7.7	$9.99	+$2.29	48% 2643-2871 (5514)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Noavg 3.9¢	$3.19	$7.93	+$4.73	39% 1657-2634 (4291)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Noavg 2.9¢	$41.35	$5.49	+$252.62	48% 4056-4455 (8511)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Noavg 18¢	$275.52	$0.77	-$274.76	52% 2587-2373 (4960)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Noavg 65¢	$31.85	$0.49	-$31.36	57% 702-540 (1242)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Noavg 4.5¢	$19.05	$0.43	-$18.63	46% 1234-1428 (2662)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Noavg 3¢	$3	$0.1	-$2.9	49% 1197-1222 (2419)

pelik

Yes

Invested

$3,684.75

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$1.84

Record

99%

1720-5 (1725)

Flaznorp

Yes

Invested

$2,165.53

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$506.06

Record

48%

4819-5125 (9944)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Yes

Invested

$144.73

Value

$741.54

PnL

+$899

Record

55%

1999-1665 (3664)

suntori<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.87

Value

$16.89

PnL

+$2.02

Record

46%

3397-3944 (7341)

pauleta23<$100

Yes

Invested

$10

Value

$10.52

PnL

+$0.52

Record

43%

580-772 (1352)

ferdinand2<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.7

Value

$9.99

PnL

+$2.29

Record

48%

2643-2871 (5514)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Invested

$3.19

Value

$7.93

PnL

+$4.73

Record

39%

1657-2634 (4291)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Invested

$41.35

Value

$5.49

PnL

+$252.62

Record

48%

4056-4455 (8511)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Invested

$275.52

Value

$0.77

PnL

-$274.76

Record

52%

2587-2373 (4960)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Invested

$31.85

Value

$0.49

PnL

-$31.36

Record

57%

702-540 (1242)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Invested

$19.05

Value

$0.43

PnL

-$18.63

Record

46%

1234-1428 (2662)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Invested

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$2.9

Record

49%

1197-1222 (2419)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 50% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.