Belgium vs. Italy: Draw at halftime?

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

$85.71

Smart Money Entry

72.9¢ → 100¢

+37% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares2,033

Combined PnL+$549.68

Yes5 traders

Total Value$76.18

Total Shares1,865

Combined PnL-$463.98

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (10 on No) disagree here.

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 74.1¢	$1.3K	$1.7K	+$444.16	52% 2587-2373 (4960)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Noavg 59.5¢	$132	$221.75	+$89.75	55% 1999-1665 (3664)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Yesavg 25¢	$205.9	$72.37	-$133.54	48% 4819-5125 (9944)
PV pvc975<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$52.58	$52.6	+$0.03	98% 542-12 (554)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 59¢	$11.44	$19.37	+$7.93	57% 702-540 (1242)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Noavg 53¢	$8.83	$16.65	+$7.82	39% 1657-2634 (4291)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Yesavg 29.7¢	$75.33	$2.72	-$72.6	48% 4056-4455 (8511)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$7.57	$0.61	-$6.96	48% 2643-2871 (5514)
RN1CTR	Yesavg 25¢	$236	$0.47	-$235.53	54% 6095-5185 (11280)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Yesavg 44.9¢	$15.36	$0.02	-$15.34	38% 1401-2279 (3680)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$1,276.76

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$444.16

Record

52%

2587-2373 (4960)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Invested

$132

Value

$221.75

PnL

+$89.75

Record

55%

1999-1665 (3664)

FlaznorpCTR

Yes

Invested

$205.9

Value

$72.37

PnL

-$133.54

Record

48%

4819-5125 (9944)

pvc975<$100

Invested

$52.58

Value

$52.6

PnL

+$0.03

Record

98%

542-12 (554)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$11.44

Value

$19.37

PnL

+$7.93

Record

57%

702-540 (1242)

topdogbigboi<$100

Invested

$8.83

Value

$16.65

PnL

+$7.82

Record

39%

1657-2634 (4291)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$75.33

Value

$2.72

PnL

-$72.6

Record

48%

4056-4455 (8511)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.57

Value

$0.61

PnL

-$6.96

Record

48%

2643-2871 (5514)

RN1CTR

Yes

Invested

$236

Value

$0.47

PnL

-$235.53

Record

54%

6095-5185 (11280)

LimousinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.36

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$15.34

Record

38%

1401-2279 (3680)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (10 on No) disagree here.

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.