Armenia vs. Cyprus: 1st Half O/U 1.5

9 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Under (64%) · Under at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 12

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 64%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

$134.94

Smart Money Entry

79.5¢ → 100¢

+26% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 14 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under9 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares1,923

Combined PnL+$244.1

Over5 traders

Total Value$47.39

Total Shares547

Combined PnL-$109.16

Under — 64%Over — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Under 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dashattacker	Underavg 82.8¢	$729.44	$880.42	+$150.98	61% 230-148 (378)
0X 0xE337F5A28E9C530a676C959A1888Ba5368664ad6-1779639269540	Underavg 94¢	$389.79	$393.93	+$4.15	86% 44-7 (51)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 25.9¢	$443.55	$320.34	-$123.21	51% 2545-2464 (5009)
└ Under leg	Underavg 48.1¢	$92.62	$171.51	+$78.89
└ Over leg	Overavg 25.9¢	$350.93	$148.83	-$202.1
FO Forecastication2	Underavg 73¢	$147.46	$153.52	+$6.06	44% 165-210 (375)
CI cigarettes	Underavg 44.7¢	$77.22	$120.5	+$43.28	53% 6191-5476 (11667)
PV pvc975	Underavg 99.9¢	$108.83	$108.89	+$0.05	99% 147-2 (149)
poshposh<$100	Underavg 42.8¢	$33.2	$52.54	+$19.34	47% 532-590 (1122)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Overavg 34.4¢	$67.03	$44.8	-$22.23	48% 2223-2408 (4631)
LR lryyy<$100	Underavg 45¢	$24.75	$42.35	+$17.6	44% 389-495 (884)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 70¢	$31.5	$34.2	+$2.7	52% 187-174 (361)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Underavg 85¢	$3.71	$3.64	-$0.07	83% 384-80 (464)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Overavg 30¢	$3.16	$2.42	-$0.74	41% 552-797 (1349)
0X 0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000CTR<$100	Overavg 6¢	$10.5	$0.09	-$10.41	12% 14-105 (119)
SU suntoriCTR	Overavg 54¢	$123.8	$0.07	-$70.71	47% 1625-1826 (3451)
dips.CTR<$100	Overavg 15¢	$7.2	$0.02	-$5.07	45% 537-651 (1188)

dashattacker

Under

Invested

$729.44

Value

$880.42

PnL

+$150.98

Record

61%

230-148 (378)

0xE337F5A28E9C530a676C959A1888Ba5368664ad6-1779639269540

Under

Invested

$389.79

Value

$393.93

PnL

+$4.15

Record

86%

44-7 (51)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$443.55

Value

$320.34

PnL

-$123.21

Record

51%

2545-2464 (5009)

Both legs:

Under$92.6248.1¢+$78.89

Over$350.9325.9¢-$202.1

Forecastication2

Under

Invested

$147.46

Value

$153.52

PnL

+$6.06

Record

44%

165-210 (375)

cigarettes

Under

Invested

$77.22

Value

$120.5

PnL

+$43.28

Record

53%

6191-5476 (11667)

pvc975

Under

Invested

$108.83

Value

$108.89

PnL

+$0.05

Record

99%

147-2 (149)

poshposh<$100

Under

Invested

$33.2

Value

$52.54

PnL

+$19.34

Record

47%

532-590 (1122)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$67.03

Value

$44.8

PnL

-$22.23

Record

48%

2223-2408 (4631)

lryyy<$100

Under

Invested

$24.75

Value

$42.35

PnL

+$17.6

Record

44%

389-495 (884)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$31.5

Value

$34.2

PnL

+$2.7

Record

52%

187-174 (361)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Under

Invested

$3.71

Value

$3.64

PnL

-$0.07

Record

83%

384-80 (464)

sentrioCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.16

Value

$2.42

PnL

-$0.74

Record

41%

552-797 (1349)

0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$10.5

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$10.41

Record

12%

14-105 (119)

suntoriCTR

Over

Invested

$123.8

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$70.71

Record

47%

1625-1826 (3451)

dips.CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$7.2

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$5.07

Record

45%

537-651 (1188)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 14 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Under 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.