Albania vs. Finland: 1st Half O/U 0.5

3 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (30%) · Over at 100¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 12

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 30%

Total Value

$4.3K

Combined PnL

$-1.4K

Smart Money Entry

98.1¢ → 100¢

+2% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 10 top traders (30%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares2,648

Combined PnL+$30.88

Under7 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares4,296

Combined PnL$-1.4K

Over — 30%Under — 70%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PV pvc975	Overavg 99.9¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	+$0	99% 175-2 (177)
RN1CTR	Underavg 55.6¢	$1.1K	$902.7	-$211.13	56% 4529-3502 (8031)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 57.4¢	$712.69	$775.9	+$63.21	51% 2634-2567 (5201)
0X 0xE337F5A28E9C530a676C959A1888Ba5368664ad6-1779639269540	Overavg 96¢	$99.6	$103.65	+$4.05	86% 51-8 (59)
38 38791873984189	Overavg 54.3¢	$344.11	$94.58	+$26.83	48% 2298-2502 (4800)
LI LimousinCTR	Underavg 41.8¢	$245.83	$11.75	-$234.08	33% 563-1169 (1732)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 42¢	$42.17	$5.09	-$37.08	32% 565-1192 (1757)
DA dashattackerCTR	Underavg 69¢	$995.72	$0.72	-$995	62% 239-149 (388)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Underavg 4¢	$1.56	$0.02	-$1.54	43% 374-496 (870)
dips.CTR<$100	Underavg 4¢	$1.59	$0.01	-$1.19	45% 563-680 (1243)

pvc975

Over

Invested

$2,446.66

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$0

Record

99%

175-2 (177)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$1,113.83

Value

$902.7

PnL

-$211.13

Record

56%

4529-3502 (8031)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$712.69

Value

$775.9

PnL

+$63.21

Record

51%

2634-2567 (5201)

0xE337F5A28E9C530a676C959A1888Ba5368664ad6-1779639269540

Over

Invested

$99.6

Value

$103.65

PnL

+$4.05

Record

86%

51-8 (59)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$344.11

Value

$94.58

PnL

+$26.83

Record

48%

2298-2502 (4800)

LimousinCTR

Under

Invested

$245.83

Value

$11.75

PnL

-$234.08

Record

33%

563-1169 (1732)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$42.17

Value

$5.09

PnL

-$37.08

Record

32%

565-1192 (1757)

dashattackerCTR

Under

Invested

$995.72

Value

$0.72

PnL

-$995

Record

62%

239-149 (388)

smithagentCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.56

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$1.54

Record

43%

374-496 (870)

dips.CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.59

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.19

Record

45%

563-680 (1243)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 10 top traders (30%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.