Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-11-03?

26 of 41 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 100¢ · $88K held · ended Nov 3

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 63%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$88.0K

Combined PnL

$-2.3K

Smart Money Entry

82.2¢ → 100¢

+22% since entry · 26 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

26 of 41 top traders (63%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No26 traders

Total Value$68.2K

Total Shares78,952

Combined PnL$-2.2K

Yes15 traders

Total Value$17.4K

Total Shares82,843

Combined PnL-$110.82

No — 63%Yes — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Mature

21h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (15 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 67% · 6

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 53% · 15

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BE beautifulobsession	Noavg 78¢	$10.0K	$10.0K	+$63.88	66% 86-45 (131)
AN AnonymousUsername	Noavg 79.7¢	$9.3K	$9.1K	-$235.6	71% 6981-2792 (9773)
LonnieHawkinss	Noavg 98.3¢	$12.8K	$8.7K	+$132.14	53% 2048-1828 (3876)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 78¢	$8.3K	$5.9K	+$149.74	58% 44610-32488 (77098)
KY Kyn008CTR	Yesavg 21¢	$5.0K	$5.4K	+$359.26	49% 277-290 (567)
RI ripley86alienCTR	Yesavg 22.9¢	$5.7K	$5.4K	-$339.5	40% 10-15 (25)
XW xwingboy	Noavg 79.8¢	$5.1K	$5.0K	-$84.15	64% 309-172 (481)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 78.4¢	$6.4K	$4.8K	$-1.6K	51% 23399-22168 (45567)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 78¢	$5.1K	$3.9K	$-1.2K	50% 27298-27227 (54525)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Noavg 79.8¢	$3.9K	$3.8K	-$110.83	51% 1717-1639 (3356)
38 38791873984189	Noavg 78.6¢	$2.6K	$3.1K	+$517.6	48% 14393-15903 (30296)
RN1	Noavg 99.9¢	$2.8K	$2.8K	-$10.36	53% 59038-51355 (110393)
DA darkumbreon88	Noavg 78¢	$2.6K	$2.6K	-$16.86	64% 1845-1027 (2872)
0X 0x5E39013a1d7C4B502ad2Ea073d7e8A0469cA352C-1765309578276	Noavg 79¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	+$15	68% 2724-1308 (4032)
CA CannaeARB<$100	Noavg 78¢	$2.1K	$2.2K	+$77.12	53% 16384-14558 (30942)
└ No leg	Noavg 78¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$8.48
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 20¢	$688.39	$773.99	+$85.6
MA MadridTimeCTR	Yesavg 20¢	$1.6K	$1.9K	+$233.18	52% 830-771 (1601)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Yesavg 21.2¢	$1.9K	$1.8K	+$28.53	54% 906-787 (1693)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 78¢	$1.5K	$1.7K	+$273.97	50% 35607-35082 (70689)
CUTJALENHURTSCTR	Yesavg 22.3¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$15.29	52% 5926-5526 (11452)
FE ferdinand2	Noavg 78¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$9.06	48% 6154-6562 (12716)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Noavg 99.5¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$103.38	56% 7530-5969 (13499)
LI LimousinCTR	Yesavg 20¢	$760.61	$836.62	+$76.01	56% 942-736 (1678)
AN Anon455	Noavg 83¢	$546.88	$583.12	+$36.24	55% 3323-2713 (6036)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR	Yesavg 22¢	$1.1K	$578.52	-$528.83	53% 2336-2055 (4391)
NO NotJump	Noavg 97.5¢	$442.37	$429.22	-$13.15	44% 10222-13273 (23495)

beautifulobsession

Invested

$9,966.05

Value

$10.0K

PnL

+$63.88

Record

66%

86-45 (131)

AnonymousUsername

Invested

$9,292.94

Value

$9.1K

PnL

-$235.6

Record

71%

6981-2792 (9773)

LonnieHawkinss

Invested

$12,796.7

Value

$8.7K

PnL

+$132.14

Record

53%

2048-1828 (3876)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$8,321.48

Value

$5.9K

PnL

+$149.74

Record

58%

44610-32488 (77098)

Kyn008CTR

Yes

Invested

$5,029.64

Value

$5.4K

PnL

+$359.26

Record

49%

277-290 (567)

ripley86alienCTR

Yes

Invested

$5,714.5

Value

$5.4K

PnL

-$339.5

Record

40%

10-15 (25)

xwingboy

Invested

$5,052.5

Value

$5.0K

PnL

-$84.15

Record

64%

309-172 (481)

Flaznorp

Invested

$6,401.79

Value

$4.8K

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

51%

23399-22168 (45567)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$5,066.19

Value

$3.9K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

50%

27298-27227 (54525)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Invested

$3,908.33

Value

$3.8K

PnL

-$110.83

Record

51%

1717-1639 (3356)

38791873984189

Invested

$2,594.63

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$517.6

Record

48%

14393-15903 (30296)

RN1

Invested

$2,782.98

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$10.36

Record

53%

59038-51355 (110393)

darkumbreon88

Invested

$2,629.86

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$16.86

Record

64%

1845-1027 (2872)

0x5E39013a1d7C4B502ad2Ea073d7e8A0469cA352C-1765309578276

Invested

$2,369.99

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$15

Record

68%

2724-1308 (4032)

CannaeARB<$100

Invested

$2,092.55

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$77.12

Record

53%

16384-14558 (30942)

Both legs:

Invested

$1,643.41

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$233.18

Record

52%

830-771 (1601)

LightParadoxCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,907.51

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$28.53

Record

54%

906-787 (1693)

SnakeBall

Invested

$1,455.86

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$273.97

Record

50%

35607-35082 (70689)

CUTJALENHURTSCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,437.98

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$15.29

Record

52%

5926-5526 (11452)

ferdinand2

Invested

$1,413.43

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$9.06

Record

48%

6154-6562 (12716)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Invested

$1,235.67

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$103.38

Record

56%

7530-5969 (13499)

LimousinCTR

Yes

Invested

$760.61

Value

$836.62

PnL

+$76.01

Record

56%

942-736 (1678)

Anon455

Invested

$546.88

Value

$583.12

PnL

+$36.24

Record

55%

3323-2713 (6036)

hedgevaultmainnet1CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,108.66

Value

$578.52

PnL

-$528.83

Record

53%

2336-2055 (4391)

NotJump

Invested

$442.37

Value

$429.22

PnL

-$13.15

Record

44%

10222-13273 (23495)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

26 of 41 top traders (63%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Mature

21h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (15 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 67% · 6

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 53% · 15

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.