Villarreal CF vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 6.5

17 of 27 top Polymarket traders hold Under (63%) · Under at 100¢ · $65K held · ended Nov 3

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 63%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$65.1K

Combined PnL

$2.1K

Smart Money Entry

75.6¢ → 99.5¢

+32% since entry · 17 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

17 of 27 top traders (63%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over1%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under17 traders

Total Value$58.6K

Total Shares63,524

Combined PnL+$2.8K

Over10 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares4,267

Combined PnL-$710.69

Under — 63%Over — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dashattacker	Underavg 81¢	$16.8K	$19.9K	+$3.1K	73% 2827-1071 (3898)
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 56.4¢	$13.0K	$14.9K	+$2.0K	51% 23399-22168 (45567)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Underavg 88.3¢	$12.8K	$10.3K	$-2.4K	56% 7530-5969 (13499)
RA rabbitfoot1	Underavg 84.5¢	$9.4K	$9.5K	+$161.58	54% 1192-1025 (2217)
RN1ARB<$100	Overavg 20.2¢	$3.5K	$2.2K	$-1.3K	53% 59038-51355 (110393)
└ Over leg	Overavg 20.2¢	$3.3K	$1.7K	$-1.6K
└ Under leg	Underavg 42.3¢	$240.91	$509.37	+$268.46
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Overavg 20¢	$2.4K	$2.2K	-$186.09	50% 27298-27227 (54525)
└ Under leg	Underavg 65.7¢	$853.27	$1.1K	+$263.08
└ Over leg	Overavg 20¢	$1.5K	$1.1K	-$449.17
OM omnibus-076daa	Underavg 80.6¢	$1.0K	$1.2K	+$115.41	50% 20187-20523 (40710)
VE Venusian	Underavg 63.5¢	$1.1K	$724.28	-$384.07	53% 916-813 (1729)
SL SlickRick123	Underavg 47¢	$564	$630	+$66	48% 5181-5695 (10876)
GaoJin-GamblingGodCTR	Overavg 43¢	$599.38	$606.35	+$6.97	50% 558-563 (1121)
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	Overavg 22.8¢	$372.7	$422.52	+$49.83	47% 10564-11815 (22379)
└ Over leg	Overavg 22.8¢	$257.94	$221.09	-$36.86
└ Under leg	Underavg 45.9¢	$114.75	$201.44	+$86.68
LU LuckyLooCTR	Overavg 32.6¢	$368.19	$369.84	+$1.65	49% 14107-14668 (28775)
SU suntori	Underavg 62¢	$514.6	$365.34	-$149.26	45% 13648-16581 (30229)
LI LightParadox	Underavg 92¢	$348.82	$336.39	+$0.68	54% 906-787 (1693)
FO foooool	Underavg 60¢	$291.81	$293.34	+$1.53	50% 11609-11459 (23068)
AN Anon455CTR	Overavg 56¢	$280	$280	+$0	55% 3323-2713 (6036)
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 90.8¢	$519.64	$260.44	-$259.2	50% 35607-35082 (70689)
MA MadridTimeARB<$100	Overavg 13.1¢	$124.46	$119.58	-$4.88	52% 830-771 (1601)
└ Over leg	Overavg 13.1¢	$113.88	$95.55	-$18.33
└ Under leg	Underavg 39.2¢	$10.58	$24.03	+$13.45
poshposhARB<$100	Underavg 41¢	$63.4	$108.67	+$45.28	57% 11866-8957 (20823)
└ Under leg	Underavg 41¢	$38.83	$76.23	+$37.41
└ Over leg	Overavg 14.8¢	$24.57	$32.44	+$7.87
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 36.5¢	$683.85	$80.68	-$474.2	48% 14393-15903 (30296)
0X 0xbf2342fds234423dCTR	Overavg 45.9¢	$1.9K	$66.52	-$240.5	50% 667-660 (1327)
DI dips.<$100	Underavg 45.2¢	$18.4	$29.96	+$11.55	47% 10131-11459 (21590)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Overavg 49.2¢	$26.47	$24.99	-$1.48	56% 942-736 (1678)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 91¢	$23.1	$23.74	+$0.63	58% 18597-13721 (32318)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Overavg 12¢	$23.04	$20.16	-$2.88	51% 6221-5962 (12183)

dashattacker

Under

Invested

$16,815.05

Value

$19.9K

PnL

+$3.1K

Record

73%

2827-1071 (3898)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$12,959.59

Value

$14.9K

PnL

+$2.0K

Record

51%

23399-22168 (45567)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Under

Invested

$12,754.51

Value

$10.3K

PnL

$-2.4K

Record

56%

7530-5969 (13499)

rabbitfoot1

Under

Invested

$9,386.01

Value

$9.5K

PnL

+$161.58

Record

54%

1192-1025 (2217)

RN1ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$3,547.91

Value

$2.2K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

53%

59038-51355 (110393)

Both legs:

Over$3,30720.2¢$-1.6K

Under$240.9142.3¢+$268.46

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Over

Invested

$2,352.86

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$186.09

Record

50%

27298-27227 (54525)

Both legs:

Under$853.2765.7¢+$263.08

Over$1,499.5920¢-$449.17

omnibus-076daa

Under

Invested

$1,040.28

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$115.41

Record

50%

20187-20523 (40710)

Venusian

Under

Invested

$1,108.35

Value

$724.28

PnL

-$384.07

Record

53%

916-813 (1729)

SlickRick123

Under

Invested

$564

Value

$630

PnL

+$66

Record

48%

5181-5695 (10876)

GaoJin-GamblingGodCTR

Over

Invested

$599.38

Value

$606.35

PnL

+$6.97

Record

50%

558-563 (1121)

topdogbigboiARB<$100

Over

Invested

$372.7

Value

$422.52

PnL

+$49.83

Record

47%

10564-11815 (22379)

Both legs:

Over$257.9422.8¢-$36.86

Under$114.7545.9¢+$86.68

LuckyLooCTR

Over

Invested

$368.19

Value

$369.84

PnL

+$1.65

Record

49%

14107-14668 (28775)

suntori

Under

Invested

$514.6

Value

$365.34

PnL

-$149.26

Record

45%

13648-16581 (30229)

LightParadox

Under

Invested

$348.82

Value

$336.39

PnL

+$0.68

Record

54%

906-787 (1693)

foooool

Under

Invested

$291.81

Value

$293.34

PnL

+$1.53

Record

50%

11609-11459 (23068)

Anon455CTR

Over

Invested

$280

Value

$280

PnL

+$0

Record

55%

3323-2713 (6036)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$519.64

Value

$260.44

PnL

-$259.2

Record

50%

35607-35082 (70689)

MadridTimeARB<$100

Over

Invested

$124.46

Value

$119.58

PnL

-$4.88

Record

52%

830-771 (1601)

Both legs:

Over$113.8813.1¢-$18.33

Under$10.5839.2¢+$13.45

poshposhARB<$100

Under

Invested

$63.4

Value

$108.67

PnL

+$45.28

Record

57%

11866-8957 (20823)

Both legs:

Under$38.8341¢+$37.41

Over$24.5714.8¢+$7.87

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$683.85

Value

$80.68

PnL

-$474.2

Record

48%

14393-15903 (30296)

0xbf2342fds234423dCTR

Over

Invested

$1,887.78

Value

$66.52

PnL

-$240.5

Record

50%

667-660 (1327)

dips.<$100

Under

Invested

$18.4

Value

$29.96

PnL

+$11.55

Record

47%

10131-11459 (21590)

LimousinCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$26.47

Value

$24.99

PnL

-$1.48

Record

56%

942-736 (1678)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$23.1

Value

$23.74

PnL

+$0.63

Record

58%

18597-13721 (32318)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$23.04

Value

$20.16

PnL

-$2.88

Record

51%

6221-5962 (12183)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

17 of 27 top traders (63%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.