Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (83%). 6 of 18 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Villarreal CF vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 5.5

6 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Over (33%) · Over at 18¢ · $18K held · ended Nov 3

Over18¢Under82¢Ended Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 33%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$17.8K

Combined PnL

$2.0K

Smart Money Entry

87.7¢ → 17.5¢

-80% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 18%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 18 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Under 83%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over18%

Under83%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under12 traders

Total Value$12.4K

Total Shares14,742

Combined PnL+$6.3K

Over6 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares7,061

Combined PnL$-4.3K

Under — 67%Over — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-50 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 75% · 4

Diverging

sharpOver 60% · 5

Aligned

ctrUnder 75% · 8

Diverging

Top 1000Under 67% · 18

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xf5848342fc388908f2d25a9012cc18a0ad193979	Underavg 28¢	$1.4K	$3.9K	+$2.6K	67% 285-139 (424)
LI LightParadox	Underavg 40.1¢	$1.5K	$3.1K	+$1.6K	53% 1052-943 (1995)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Underavg 58.7¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	-$24.29	56% 7690-6106 (13796)
└ Under leg	Underavg 58.7¢	$1.3K	$1.8K	+$522.27
└ Over leg	Overavg 34.8¢	$1.1K	$551.84	-$546.56
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 65.8¢	$1.7K	$2.1K	+$382.81	50% 27453-27352 (54805)
LI Limousin	Underavg 26.9¢	$424.33	$1.3K	+$879.29	54% 1090-911 (2001)
RN1ARB<$100	Overavg 61¢	$2.4K	$1.2K	$-1.2K	53% 59235-51541 (110776)
└ Under leg	Underavg 57.8¢	$456.14	$651.22	+$195.08
└ Over leg	Overavg 61¢	$1.9K	$549.17	$-1.4K
0X 0x127e88ca7f26b32be5ff2b005c5478cbd3833dd8CTR	Overavg 84.7¢	$4.0K	$822.5	$-3.2K	67% 235-116 (351)
LU LuckyLoo	Underavg 22.8¢	$211.42	$744.08	+$532.66	49% 14175-14774 (28949)
OL olpyCTR	Overavg 95.3¢	$567.64	$583	+$15.36	73% 444-161 (605)
MA MadridTime	Underavg 31.1¢	$148.58	$394.14	+$245.56	52% 992-931 (1923)
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 86¢	$404.11	$387.66	-$16.45	50% 35778-35246 (71024)
0X 0xE337F5A28E9C530a676C959A1888Ba5368664ad6-1779639269540CTR	Overavg 98¢	$1.5K	$263.81	$-1.2K	82% 2570-571 (3141)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Overavg 72.1¢	$109.52	$189.15	+$79.63	47% 10701-12047 (22748)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 84¢	$163.8	$160.88	-$2.93	47% 14501-16071 (30572)
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 82.7¢	$141.26	$140.95	-$0.31	51% 23549-22308 (45857)
CC ccllar	Underavg 32.8¢	$40.49	$101.84	+$61.35	47% 503-577 (1080)
LO lonmi2511<$100	Underavg 86¢	$26.66	$25.58	-$1.09	55% 1290-1076 (2366)
poshposhCTR<$100	Overavg 57.2¢	$45.4	$13.88	-$31.52	57% 12000-9088 (21088)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR<$100	Overavg 63¢	$33.23	$9.23	-$24	48% 281-309 (590)
DV dv-pm<$100	Underavg 82¢	$4.1	—	-$4.1	49% 3274-3369 (6643)

0xf5848342fc388908f2d25a9012cc18a0ad193979

Under

Invested

$1,403.26

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$2.6K

Record

67%

285-139 (424)

LightParadox

Under

Invested

$1,526.54

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$1.6K

Record

53%

1052-943 (1995)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$2,383.82

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$24.29

Record

56%

7690-6106 (13796)

Both legs:

Under$1,285.4258.7¢+$522.27

Over$1,098.434.8¢-$546.56

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$1,675.54

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$382.81

Record

50%

27453-27352 (54805)

Limousin

Under

Invested

$424.33

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$879.29

Record

54%

1090-911 (2001)

RN1ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$2,369.72

Value

$1.2K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

53%

59235-51541 (110776)

Both legs:

Under$456.1457.8¢+$195.08

Over$1,913.5861¢$-1.4K

0x127e88ca7f26b32be5ff2b005c5478cbd3833dd8CTR

Over

Invested

$3,979.58

Value

$822.5

PnL

$-3.2K

Record

67%

235-116 (351)

LuckyLoo

Under

Invested

$211.42

Value

$744.08

PnL

+$532.66

Record

49%

14175-14774 (28949)

olpyCTR

Over

Invested

$567.64

Value

$583

PnL

+$15.36

Record

73%

444-161 (605)

MadridTime

Under

Invested

$148.58

Value

$394.14

PnL

+$245.56

Record

52%

992-931 (1923)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$404.11

Value

$387.66

PnL

-$16.45

Record

50%

35778-35246 (71024)

0xE337F5A28E9C530a676C959A1888Ba5368664ad6-1779639269540CTR

Over

Invested

$1,477.64

Value

$263.81

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

82%

2570-571 (3141)

topdogbigboiCTR

Over

Invested

$109.52

Value

$189.15

PnL

+$79.63

Record

47%

10701-12047 (22748)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$163.8

Value

$160.88

PnL

-$2.93

Record

47%

14501-16071 (30572)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$141.26

Value

$140.95

PnL

-$0.31

Record

51%

23549-22308 (45857)

ccllar

Under

Invested

$40.49

Value

$101.84

PnL

+$61.35

Record

47%

503-577 (1080)

lonmi2511<$100

Under

Invested

$26.66

Value

$25.58

PnL

-$1.09

Record

55%

1290-1076 (2366)

poshposhCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$45.4

Value

$13.88

PnL

-$31.52

Record

57%

12000-9088 (21088)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$33.23

Value

$9.23

PnL

-$24

Record

48%

281-309 (590)

dv-pm<$100

Under

Invested

$4.1

Value

—

PnL

-$4.1

Record

49%

3274-3369 (6643)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 18%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 18 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Under 83%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-50 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 75% · 4

Diverging

sharpOver 60% · 5

Aligned

ctrUnder 75% · 8

Diverging

Top 1000Under 67% · 18

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance19.3%

17.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$419.38

Max Loss

-$100.00

519.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.