Will FK Shakhtar Donetsk win on 2026-11-03?

13 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (87%) · No at 73¢ · $48K held · ends Nov 3

Yes28¢No72¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 87%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$47.6K

Combined PnL

-$166.88

Smart Money Entry

72.2¢ → 72.5¢

+0% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 73%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 15 top traders (87%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes28%

No73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$22.0K

Total Shares79,931

Combined PnL-$315.59

No13 traders

Total Value$25.5K

Total Shares35,026

Combined PnL+$148.71

Yes — 13%No — 87%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 43%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

87% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 43% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 82% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 86% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MI MigRodrCTR	Yesavg 27.9¢	$22.3K	$22.0K	-$314.52	22% 15-52 (67)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 72.5¢	$7.6K	$5.3K	+$15.53	58% 44520-32419 (76939)
GO goldmyname	Noavg 72¢	$4.8K	$4.9K	+$33.3	59% 161-110 (271)
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 72¢	$3.8K	$3.8K	+$52.51	49% 14098-14659 (28757)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 72¢	$2.7K	$3.0K	+$14.67	51% 23350-22134 (45484)
HI hi774c	Noavg 72¢	$3.0K	$2.2K	+$15.22	50% 4912-4827 (9739)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989	Noavg 72¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	+$15	53% 5818-5225 (11043)
P1 P1kaso	Noavg 73¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$10	63% 763-457 (1220)
CA Cannae	Noavg 72¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$7.85	53% 16363-14532 (30895)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 72¢	$1.4K	$1.0K	+$6.95	50% 27131-27060 (54191)
fyrsken	Noavg 73¢	$365	$365	-$2.5	49% 310-329 (639)
BA BayupatiARB<$100	Noavg 74¢	$166.89	$166.71	-$0.18	50% 249-252 (501)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 27¢	$82.6	$84.16	+$1.53
└ No leg	Noavg 74¢	$84.25	$82.56	-$1.71
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 72¢	$46.3	$46.94	+$0.64	57% 18305-13557 (31862)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Noavg 74¢	$22.2	$21.9	-$0.45	52% 8430-7691 (16121)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 74¢	$3.7	$3.65	-$0.03	50% 25211-24910 (50121)
GA GaditimaCTR<$100	Yesavg 38¢	$3.63	$2.56	-$1.07	48% 6887-7538 (14425)

MigRodrCTR

Yes

Invested

$22,292.93

Value

$22.0K

PnL

-$314.52

Record

22%

15-52 (67)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$7,557.65

Value

$5.3K

PnL

+$15.53

Record

58%

44520-32419 (76939)

goldmyname

Invested

$4,795.2

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$33.3

Record

59%

161-110 (271)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$3,781.03

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$52.51

Record

49%

14098-14659 (28757)

Flaznorp

Invested

$2,725.92

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$14.67

Record

51%

23350-22134 (45484)

hi774c

Invested

$3,044.44

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$15.22

Record

50%

4912-4827 (9739)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989

Invested

$2,160

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$15

Record

53%

5818-5225 (11043)

P1kaso

Invested

$1,459.99

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$10

Record

63%

763-457 (1220)

Cannae

Invested

$1,205.1

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$7.85

Record

53%

16363-14532 (30895)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$1,389.29

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$6.95

Record

50%

27131-27060 (54191)

fyrsken

Invested

$365

Value

$365

PnL

-$2.5

Record

49%

310-329 (639)

BayupatiARB<$100

Invested

$166.89

Value

$166.71

PnL

-$0.18

Record

50%

249-252 (501)

Both legs:

Yes$82.627¢+$1.53

No$84.2574¢-$1.71

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$46.3

Value

$46.94

PnL

+$0.64

Record

57%

18305-13557 (31862)

ameisgoat11<$100

Invested

$22.2

Value

$21.9

PnL

-$0.45

Record

52%

8430-7691 (16121)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$3.7

Value

$3.65

PnL

-$0.03

Record

50%

25211-24910 (50121)

GaditimaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.63

Value

$2.56

PnL

-$1.07

Record

48%

6887-7538 (14425)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 73%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 15 top traders (87%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 43%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

87% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 43% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 82% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 86% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.5%

72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$34.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

134.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.