Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Manchester United FC, while the market favors AS Roma (53%). 15 of 22 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: AS Roma (-1.5)

15 of 22 top Polymarket traders hold Manchester United FC (68%) · Manchester United FC at 48¢ · $55K held · ended Nov 3

AS Roma53¢Manchester United FC47¢Ended Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Manchester United FC

Consensus Traders

Manchester United FC 68%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$54.9K

Combined PnL

$-13.4K

Smart Money Entry

75.1¢ → 47.5¢

-37% since entry · 15 traders

Research grade

NeutralManchester United FC at 48%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Manchester United FC

15 of 22 top traders (68%)Underdog side (market favors AS Roma 53%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

AS Roma53%

Manchester United FC48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Manchester United FC15 traders

Total Value$36.1K

Total Shares64,198

Combined PnL$-13.1K

AS Roma7 traders

Total Value$4.4K

Total Shares22,407

Combined PnL-$349.98

Manchester United FC — 68%AS Roma — 32%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

73% of non-arb traders are on Manchester United FC. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleManchester United FC 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrManchester United FC 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedManchester United FC 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Manchester United FC 73% · 15

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Manchester United FCavg 82.3¢	$36.1K	$23.2K	$-12.8K	51% 23399-22168 (45567)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Manchester United FCavg 85.1¢	$11.4K	$8.0K	$-3.4K	50% 27298-27227 (54525)
└ Manchester United FC leg	Manchester United FCavg 85.1¢	$7.5K	$4.1K	$-3.4K
└ AS Roma leg	AS Romaavg 53.1¢	$3.9K	$4.0K	+$29.64
RN1ARB<$100	AS Romaavg 53¢	$5.5K	$4.6K	-$976.74	53% 59038-51355 (110393)
└ AS Roma leg	AS Romaavg 53¢	$3.2K	$3.3K	+$30.64
└ Manchester United FC leg	Manchester United FCavg 82.8¢	$2.3K	$1.3K	$-1.0K
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Manchester United FCavg 47.9¢	$3.5K	$3.4K	-$100.67	50% 20187-20523 (40710)
CA CannaeCTR	Manchester United FCavg 83.4¢	$3.3K	$3.4K	+$82.68	53% 16384-14558 (30942)
VE VenusianCTR	Manchester United FCavg 48.3¢	$2.8K	$2.7K	-$78.21	53% 916-813 (1729)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	AS Romaavg 53¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$108.04	56% 7530-5969 (13499)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Manchester United FCavg 73.8¢	$1.8K	$1.3K	+$135.36	48% 14393-15903 (30296)
└ AS Roma leg	AS Romaavg 20¢	$282.26	$732.92	+$487.53
└ Manchester United FC leg	Manchester United FCavg 73.8¢	$831.8	$541.33	-$352.17
0X 0x8Bb006d1bB8b1C5735DA79E81637e3dad6E3ca79-1768601841360	AS Romaavg 16.7¢	$1.4K	$1.2K	-$176.59	46% 144-172 (316)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR	Manchester United FCavg 83.6¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$5.93	45% 10636-12803 (23439)
RO roscoff	AS Romaavg 15.6¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$48.21	53% 172-152 (324)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Manchester United FCavg 84¢	$973.08	$973.08	+$0	49% 14107-14668 (28775)
XY xyz.eww	AS Romaavg 16.7¢	$733.57	$660	-$22	62% 16-10 (26)
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Manchester United FCavg 81.3¢	$766.5	$497.15	-$269.35	50% 35607-35082 (70689)
└ Manchester United FC leg	Manchester United FCavg 81.3¢	$631.88	$361.26	-$270.62
└ AS Roma leg	AS Romaavg 53¢	$134.62	$135.89	+$1.27
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Manchester United FCavg 84¢	$336	$336	+$0	51% 1717-1639 (3356)
LI LimousinCTR	Manchester United FCavg 46.9¢	$258.83	$266.54	+$7.71	56% 942-736 (1678)
GH ghorrockCTR	Manchester United FCavg 82.7¢	$513.76	$192.45	-$155.05	58% 18597-13721 (32318)
SE sentrioCTR	Manchester United FCavg 83.5¢	$172.9	$175.95	+$3.05	50% 25247-24961 (50208)
FO fooooolCTR	Manchester United FCavg 85.6¢	$166.99	$166.72	-$0.27	50% 11609-11459 (23068)
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	AS Romaavg 50¢	$76.72	$79.92	+$3.2	47% 10564-11815 (22379)
└ AS Roma leg	AS Romaavg 50¢	$50	$56	+$6
└ Manchester United FC leg	Manchester United FCavg 49.2¢	$26.72	$23.92	-$2.8
ZaiZoiBele<$100	AS Romaavg 43.8¢	$63.92	$67.07	+$3.15	80% 5187-1322 (6509)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Manchester United FCavg 49.2¢	$22.2	$35.24	-$0.25	52% 830-771 (1601)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Manchester United FCavg 48.2¢	$35.22	$33.95	-$1.27	54% 906-787 (1693)
WA WagerWizard<$100	AS Romaavg 49.8¢	$22.73	$24.44	+$1.71	84% 14422-2759 (17181)
LO lonmi2511CTR<$100	Manchester United FCavg 84¢	$22.68	$23.09	+$0.41	54% 1268-1059 (2327)

FlaznorpCTR

Manchester United FC

Invested

$36,076.84

Value

$23.2K

PnL

$-12.8K

Record

51%

23399-22168 (45567)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Manchester United FC

Invested

$11,393.39

Value

$8.0K

PnL

$-3.4K

Record

50%

27298-27227 (54525)

Both legs:

Manchester United FC$7,463.5785.1¢$-3.4K

AS Roma$3,929.8253.1¢+$29.64

RN1ARB<$100

AS Roma

Invested

$5,547.17

Value

$4.6K

PnL

-$976.74

Record

53%

59038-51355 (110393)

Both legs:

AS Roma$3,247.8453¢+$30.64

Manchester United FC$2,299.3382.8¢$-1.0K

omnibus-076daaCTR

Manchester United FC

Invested

$3,483.25

Value

$3.4K

PnL

-$100.67

Record

50%

20187-20523 (40710)

CannaeCTR

Manchester United FC

Invested

$3,281.94

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$82.68

Record

53%

16384-14558 (30942)

VenusianCTR

Manchester United FC

Invested

$2,812.87

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$78.21

Record

53%

916-813 (1729)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

AS Roma

Invested

$1,410.91

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$108.04

Record

56%

7530-5969 (13499)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Manchester United FC

Invested

$1,758.24

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$135.36

Record

48%

14393-15903 (30296)

Both legs:

AS Roma$282.2620¢+$487.53

Manchester United FC$831.873.8¢-$352.17

0x8Bb006d1bB8b1C5735DA79E81637e3dad6E3ca79-1768601841360

AS Roma

Invested

$1,363.28

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$176.59

Record

46%

144-172 (316)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR

Manchester United FC

Invested

$1,163.73

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$5.93

Record

45%

10636-12803 (23439)

roscoff

AS Roma

Invested

$1,182.61

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$48.21

Record

53%

172-152 (324)

LuckyLooCTR

Manchester United FC

Invested

$973.08

Value

$973.08

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

14107-14668 (28775)

xyz.eww

AS Roma

Invested

$733.57

Value

$660

PnL

-$22

Record

62%

16-10 (26)

SnakeBallARB<$100

Manchester United FC

Invested

$766.5

Value

$497.15

PnL

-$269.35

Record

50%

35607-35082 (70689)

Both legs:

Manchester United FC$631.8881.3¢-$270.62

AS Roma$134.6253¢+$1.27

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Manchester United FC

Invested

$336

Value

$336

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

1717-1639 (3356)

LimousinCTR

Manchester United FC

Invested

$258.83

Value

$266.54

PnL

+$7.71

Record

56%

942-736 (1678)

ghorrockCTR

Manchester United FC

Invested

$513.76

Value

$192.45

PnL

-$155.05

Record

58%

18597-13721 (32318)

sentrioCTR

Manchester United FC

Invested

$172.9

Value

$175.95

PnL

+$3.05

Record

50%

25247-24961 (50208)

fooooolCTR

Manchester United FC

Invested

$166.99

Value

$166.72

PnL

-$0.27

Record

50%

11609-11459 (23068)

topdogbigboiARB<$100

AS Roma

Invested

$76.72

Value

$79.92

PnL

+$3.2

Record

47%

10564-11815 (22379)

Both legs:

AS Roma$5050¢+$6

Manchester United FC$26.7249.2¢-$2.8

ZaiZoiBele<$100

AS Roma

Invested

$63.92

Value

$67.07

PnL

+$3.15

Record

80%

5187-1322 (6509)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Manchester United FC

Invested

$22.2

Value

$35.24

PnL

-$0.25

Record

52%

830-771 (1601)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Manchester United FC

Invested

$35.22

Value

$33.95

PnL

-$1.27

Record

54%

906-787 (1693)

WagerWizard<$100

AS Roma

Invested

$22.73

Value

$24.44

PnL

+$1.71

Record

84%

14422-2759 (17181)

lonmi2511CTR<$100

Manchester United FC

Invested

$22.68

Value

$23.09

PnL

+$0.41

Record

54%

1268-1059 (2327)

Research grade

NeutralManchester United FC at 48%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Manchester United FC

15 of 22 top traders (68%)Underdog side (market favors AS Roma 53%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

73% of non-arb traders are on Manchester United FC. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleManchester United FC 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrManchester United FC 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedManchester United FC 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Manchester United FC 73% · 15

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Manchester United FC wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.7%

47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$101.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

201.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.