Feyenoord Rotterdam vs. FC Internazionale Milano: O/U 4.5

9 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Under (53%) · Under at 98¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 3

Over2¢Under98¢Ended Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 53%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.4K

Combined PnL

-$209.41

Smart Money Entry

74.2¢ → 98¢

+32% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 17 top traders (53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over2%

Under98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under9 traders

Total Value$4.7K

Total Shares4,796

Combined PnL-$126.9

Over8 traders

Total Value$593.27

Total Shares1,788

Combined PnL-$82.51

Under — 53%Over — 47%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Underavg 79.2¢	$2.3K	$2.0K	-$320.37	56% 7530-5969 (13499)
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 63.7¢	$1.1K	$1.3K	+$271.79	50% 27298-27227 (54525)
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 81.2¢	$952.65	$950	-$2.65	51% 23399-22168 (45567)
LI LimousinCTR	Overavg 40.2¢	$279.89	$265.44	-$14.45	56% 942-736 (1678)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 71.4¢	$299.02	$210.61	-$61.41	48% 14393-15903 (30296)
FO fooooolCTR	Overavg 28.5¢	$108.23	$149.86	+$41.62	50% 11609-11459 (23068)
AN Anon455CTR	Overavg 27.9¢	$77.89	$118.96	+$41.07	55% 3323-2713 (6036)
RN1<$100	Underavg 60.9¢	$94.58	$85.49	-$9.09	53% 59038-51355 (110393)
SU suntoriARB<$100	Underavg 75¢	$87.34	$83.21	-$4.13	45% 13648-16581 (30229)
└ Under leg	Underavg 75¢	$48.23	$47.29	-$0.94
└ Over leg	Overavg 28.9¢	$39.11	$35.92	-$3.19
DA dashattacker<$100	Underavg 94.3¢	$38.96	$38.84	-$0.12	73% 2827-1071 (3898)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Overavg 29.6¢	$117.12	$27.65	-$89.46	49% 14107-14668 (28775)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 72¢	$24.48	$24.48	+$0.34	58% 18597-13721 (32318)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100	Underavg 80¢	$28.56	$23.74	-$4.82	53% 2336-2055 (4391)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Overavg 49¢	$83.27	$22.1	-$61.17	47% 10564-11815 (22379)
PA pauleta23<$100	Underavg 49.2¢	$10.26	$9.69	-$0.57	66% 23825-12059 (35884)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Overavg 30¢	$7.95	$7.81	-$0.14	52% 830-771 (1601)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Overavg 27¢	$0.74	$0.77	-$0.01	50% 35607-35082 (70689)
poshposhCTR<$100	Overavg 51¢	$0.64	$0.67	+$0.03	57% 11866-8957 (20823)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Under

Invested

$2,343.7

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$320.37

Record

56%

7530-5969 (13499)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$1,062.59

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$271.79

Record

50%

27298-27227 (54525)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$952.65

Value

$950

PnL

-$2.65

Record

51%

23399-22168 (45567)

LimousinCTR

Over

Invested

$279.89

Value

$265.44

PnL

-$14.45

Record

56%

942-736 (1678)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$299.02

Value

$210.61

PnL

-$61.41

Record

48%

14393-15903 (30296)

fooooolCTR

Over

Invested

$108.23

Value

$149.86

PnL

+$41.62

Record

50%

11609-11459 (23068)

Anon455CTR

Over

Invested

$77.89

Value

$118.96

PnL

+$41.07

Record

55%

3323-2713 (6036)

RN1<$100

Under

Invested

$94.58

Value

$85.49

PnL

-$9.09

Record

53%

59038-51355 (110393)

suntoriARB<$100

Under

Invested

$87.34

Value

$83.21

PnL

-$4.13

Record

45%

13648-16581 (30229)

Both legs:

Under$48.2375¢-$0.94

Over$39.1128.9¢-$3.19

dashattacker<$100

Under

Invested

$38.96

Value

$38.84

PnL

-$0.12

Record

73%

2827-1071 (3898)

LuckyLooCTR

Over

Invested

$117.12

Value

$27.65

PnL

-$89.46

Record

49%

14107-14668 (28775)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$24.48

Value

$24.48

PnL

+$0.34

Record

58%

18597-13721 (32318)

hedgevaultmainnet1<$100

Under

Invested

$28.56

Value

$23.74

PnL

-$4.82

Record

53%

2336-2055 (4391)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$83.27

Value

$22.1

PnL

-$61.17

Record

47%

10564-11815 (22379)

pauleta23<$100

Under

Invested

$10.26

Value

$9.69

PnL

-$0.57

Record

66%

23825-12059 (35884)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$7.95

Value

$7.81

PnL

-$0.14

Record

52%

830-771 (1601)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.74

Value

$0.77

PnL

-$0.01

Record

50%

35607-35082 (70689)

poshposhCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.64

Value

$0.67

PnL

+$0.03

Record

57%

11866-8957 (20823)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 17 top traders (53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.0%

98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.96

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.