Feyenoord Rotterdam vs. FC Internazionale Milano: Both Teams to Score

11 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (58%) · Yes at 64¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 3

Yes64¢No36¢Ended Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 58%

Total Value

$3.8K

Combined PnL

-$42

Smart Money Entry

69.1¢ → 63.5¢

-8% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 64%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 19 top traders (58%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes64%

No37%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes11 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares3,569

Combined PnL+$4.8

No8 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares4,339

Combined PnL-$46.81

Yes — 58%No — 42%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (9 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0xheavy888	Yesavg 68.7¢	$823.75	$845.82	+$22.07	55% 7598-6093 (13691)
38 38791873984189	Yesavg 68.3¢	$599.51	$597.25	-$2.26	48% 14393-15903 (30296)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 30.1¢	$519.17	$483.56	-$35.61	51% 23399-22168 (45567)
FO foooool	Yesavg 68.9¢	$323.07	$318.75	-$4.32	50% 11609-11459 (23068)
VE VenusianCTR	Noavg 31.5¢	$276.54	$271.82	-$4.71	53% 916-813 (1729)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Noavg 32.8¢	$275.7	$264.78	-$10.92	52% 830-771 (1601)
ZZ Zzzz87	Yesavg 70.1¢	$255.05	$252.98	-$2.07	47% 3204-3579 (6783)
SU suntori	Yesavg 68.8¢	$173.23	$172.39	-$0.84	45% 13648-16581 (30229)
LI LimousinCTR	Noavg 33.1¢	$161.06	$158.19	-$2.86	56% 942-736 (1678)
nigiri99	Yesavg 70¢	$137.24	$133.28	-$3.96	46% 8245-9621 (17866)
WA WagerWizard	Yesavg 76.6¢	$100.26	$95.53	-$4.73	84% 14422-2759 (17181)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Noavg 32¢	$64.63	$69.65	+$5.02	50% 35607-35082 (70689)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Yesavg 70.1¢	$34.33	$33.57	-$0.77	50% 7347-7479 (14826)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Noavg 24¢	$28.08	$31.59	+$3.51	56% 7530-5969 (13499)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Noavg 32.4¢	$17.16	$16.7	-$0.46	54% 906-787 (1693)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100	Yesavg 67¢	$11.79	$11.97	+$0.09	53% 2336-2055 (4391)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Noavg 31.6¢	$11.42	$10.66	-$0.76	49% 14107-14668 (28775)
GH ghorrock<$100	Yesavg 66.7¢	$18.32	$7.12	+$0.45	58% 18597-13721 (32318)
VeryLucky888<$100	Yesavg 67¢	$69.48	$2.71	+$1.13	58% 44610-32488 (77098)

0xheavy888

Yes

Invested

$823.75

Value

$845.82

PnL

+$22.07

Record

55%

7598-6093 (13691)

38791873984189

Yes

Invested

$599.51

Value

$597.25

PnL

-$2.26

Record

48%

14393-15903 (30296)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$519.17

Value

$483.56

PnL

-$35.61

Record

51%

23399-22168 (45567)

foooool

Yes

Invested

$323.07

Value

$318.75

PnL

-$4.32

Record

50%

11609-11459 (23068)

VenusianCTR

Invested

$276.54

Value

$271.82

PnL

-$4.71

Record

53%

916-813 (1729)

MadridTimeCTR

Invested

$275.7

Value

$264.78

PnL

-$10.92

Record

52%

830-771 (1601)

Zzzz87

Yes

Invested

$255.05

Value

$252.98

PnL

-$2.07

Record

47%

3204-3579 (6783)

suntori

Yes

Invested

$173.23

Value

$172.39

PnL

-$0.84

Record

45%

13648-16581 (30229)

LimousinCTR

Invested

$161.06

Value

$158.19

PnL

-$2.86

Record

56%

942-736 (1678)

nigiri99

Yes

Invested

$137.24

Value

$133.28

PnL

-$3.96

Record

46%

8245-9621 (17866)

WagerWizard

Yes

Invested

$100.26

Value

$95.53

PnL

-$4.73

Record

84%

14422-2759 (17181)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Invested

$64.63

Value

$69.65

PnL

+$5.02

Record

50%

35607-35082 (70689)

Forecastication2<$100

Yes

Invested

$34.33

Value

$33.57

PnL

-$0.77

Record

50%

7347-7479 (14826)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Invested

$28.08

Value

$31.59

PnL

+$3.51

Record

56%

7530-5969 (13499)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Invested

$17.16

Value

$16.7

PnL

-$0.46

Record

54%

906-787 (1693)

hedgevaultmainnet1<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.79

Value

$11.97

PnL

+$0.09

Record

53%

2336-2055 (4391)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Invested

$11.42

Value

$10.66

PnL

-$0.76

Record

49%

14107-14668 (28775)

ghorrock<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.32

Value

$7.12

PnL

+$0.45

Record

58%

18597-13721 (32318)

VeryLucky888<$100

Yes

Invested

$69.48

Value

$2.71

PnL

+$1.13

Record

58%

44610-32488 (77098)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 64%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 19 top traders (58%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (9 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.6%

63.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$52.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

152.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.