Will Fenerbahçe SK vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw?

14 of 25 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 70¢ · $79K held · ended Nov 4

Yes31¢No69¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 56%

8 arb excluded

Total Value

$79.3K

Combined PnL

$571.08

Smart Money Entry

80.1¢ → 69.5¢

-13% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 70%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 25 top traders (56%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes31%

No70%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No14 traders

Total Value$37.2K

Total Shares46,869

Combined PnL-$611.53

Yes11 traders

Total Value$8.6K

Total Shares36,247

Combined PnL+$1.2K

No — 56%Yes — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN AnonymousUsername	Noavg 80.5¢	$31.6K	$31.2K	-$391.85	71% 7114-2861 (9975)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Noavg 78.6¢	$9.5K	$10.0K	+$549.27	51% 24219-22949 (47168)
└ No leg	Noavg 78.6¢	$6.5K	$5.9K	-$584.65
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 20.7¢	$3.0K	$4.1K	+$1.1K
oieshfn345ARB<$100	Noavg 80.8¢	$9.4K	$9.1K	-$378.1	58% 1993-1472 (3465)
└ No leg	Noavg 80.8¢	$8.1K	$7.2K	-$938.38
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 20¢	$1.3K	$1.9K	+$560.28
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Noavg 84.2¢	$6.9K	$6.7K	-$169.44	50% 27765-27630 (55395)
└ No leg	Noavg 84.2¢	$4.6K	$3.7K	-$849.22
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 24.4¢	$2.3K	$3.0K	+$679.78
RN1ARB<$100	Noavg 85.5¢	$3.4K	$3.7K	+$325.66	53% 60059-52427 (112486)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 17.1¢	$744.24	$2.2K	+$1.5K
└ No leg	Noavg 85.5¢	$2.7K	$1.6K	$-1.1K
38 38791873984189	Noavg 74.1¢	$3.7K	$2.5K	-$122.42	48% 59237-63255 (122492)
VE VenusianCTR	Yesavg 21¢	$1.7K	$2.4K	+$680.24	52% 1158-1077 (2235)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Yesavg 20.1¢	$2.8K	$2.0K	-$776.03	52% 1146-1041 (2187)
XW xwingboy	Noavg 80.8¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$32.5	65% 322-173 (495)
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 19.8¢	$1.0K	$1.5K	+$443.34	58% 45427-32914 (78341)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Yesavg 29.5¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$185.24	56% 7896-6221 (14117)
└ No leg	Noavg 52.5¢	$567.24	$772.73	+$205.49
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 29.5¢	$584.53	$564.29	-$20.24
LI LimousinCTR	Yesavg 21.3¢	$804.11	$1.3K	+$460.93	54% 1189-1028 (2217)
GC GC-PARB<$100	Noavg 79¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$39.07	39% 1338-2112 (3450)
└ No leg	Noavg 79¢	$649.83	$653.82	+$3.99
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 19.1¢	$479.24	$514.32	+$35.08
MA MadridTimeCTR	Yesavg 20.9¢	$581.78	$930.58	+$348.8	51% 1093-1042 (2135)
LI Lilybaeum	Noavg 87.6¢	$933.6	$884.63	-$48.97	61% 14035-9040 (23075)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Noavg 79¢	$786.64	$817.76	+$31.12	40% 1343-2035 (3378)
└ No leg	Noavg 79¢	$415.64	$418.01	+$2.37
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 19¢	$371	$399.75	+$28.75
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Noavg 73.2¢	$595.7	$610.15	+$14.45	52% 14224-12997 (27221)
└ No leg	Noavg 73.2¢	$469.59	$458.89	-$10.71
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 23.8¢	$126.1	$151.26	+$25.16
CA CannaeCTR	Yesavg 19.7¢	$244.91	$230.36	-$14.55	53% 16517-14663 (31180)
NO NordhavenCap	Noavg 80.8¢	$208.27	$212.46	+$4.19	57% 2394-1787 (4181)
WA WagerWizard	Noavg 70.1¢	$162.64	$154.36	-$8.29	84% 14602-2798 (17400)
KY Kyn008CTR	Yesavg 20¢	$97.34	$143.58	+$46.24	49% 281-298 (579)
OM omnibus-076daa	Noavg 80.6¢	$156.83	$137.67	-$19.17	50% 20734-20980 (41714)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100	Yesavg 21.8¢	$95.63	$89.81	-$5.82	51% 1790-1709 (3499)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 15¢	$66.05	$68.25	+$2.2	50% 36335-35819 (72154)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 19.8¢	$40.73	$38.11	-$2.62	51% 7648-7364 (15012)

AnonymousUsername

Invested

$31,607.89

Value

$31.2K

PnL

-$391.85

Record

71%

7114-2861 (9975)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Invested

$9,468.55

Value

$10.0K

PnL

+$549.27

Record

51%

24219-22949 (47168)

Both legs:

No$6,453.0378.6¢-$584.65

Yes$3,015.5220.7¢+$1.1K

oieshfn345ARB<$100

Invested

$9,448.85

Value

$9.1K

PnL

-$378.1

Record

58%

1993-1472 (3465)

Both legs:

No$8,128.3480.8¢-$938.38

Yes$1,320.5120¢+$560.28

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Invested

$6,874.84

Value

$6.7K

PnL

-$169.44

Record

50%

27765-27630 (55395)

Both legs:

No$4,556.4284.2¢-$849.22

Yes$2,318.4224.4¢+$679.78

RN1ARB<$100

Invested

$3,424.24

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$325.66

Record

53%

60059-52427 (112486)

Both legs:

Yes$744.2417.1¢+$1.5K

No$2,68085.5¢$-1.1K

38791873984189

Invested

$3,735.84

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$122.42

Record

48%

59237-63255 (122492)

VenusianCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,679.36

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$680.24

Record

52%

1158-1077 (2235)

LightParadoxCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,773.91

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$776.03

Record

52%

1146-1041 (2187)

xwingboy

Invested

$2,020

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$32.5

Record

65%

322-173 (495)

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,007.56

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$443.34

Record

58%

45427-32914 (78341)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$1,151.77

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$185.24

Record

56%

7896-6221 (14117)

Both legs:

No$567.2452.5¢+$205.49

Yes$584.5329.5¢-$20.24

LimousinCTR

Yes

Invested

$804.11

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$460.93

Record

54%

1189-1028 (2217)

GC-PARB<$100

Invested

$1,129.07

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$39.07

Record

39%

1338-2112 (3450)

Both legs:

No$649.8379¢+$3.99

Yes$479.2419.1¢+$35.08

MadridTimeCTR

Yes

Invested

$581.78

Value

$930.58

PnL

+$348.8

Record

51%

1093-1042 (2135)

Lilybaeum

Invested

$933.6

Value

$884.63

PnL

-$48.97

Record

61%

14035-9040 (23075)

NM-PARB<$100

Invested

$786.64

Value

$817.76

PnL

+$31.12

Record

40%

1343-2035 (3378)

Both legs:

No$415.6479¢+$2.37

Yes$37119¢+$28.75

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Invested

$595.7

Value

$610.15

PnL

+$14.45

Record

52%

14224-12997 (27221)

Both legs:

No$469.5973.2¢-$10.71

Yes$126.123.8¢+$25.16

CannaeCTR

Yes

Invested

$244.91

Value

$230.36

PnL

-$14.55

Record

53%

16517-14663 (31180)

NordhavenCap

Invested

$208.27

Value

$212.46

PnL

+$4.19

Record

57%

2394-1787 (4181)

WagerWizard

Invested

$162.64

Value

$154.36

PnL

-$8.29

Record

84%

14602-2798 (17400)

Kyn008CTR

Yes

Invested

$97.34

Value

$143.58

PnL

+$46.24

Record

49%

281-298 (579)

omnibus-076daa

Invested

$156.83

Value

$137.67

PnL

-$19.17

Record

50%

20734-20980 (41714)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$95.63

Value

$89.81

PnL

-$5.82

Record

51%

1790-1709 (3499)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$66.05

Value

$68.25

PnL

+$2.2

Record

50%

36335-35819 (72154)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$40.73

Value

$38.11

PnL

-$2.62

Record

51%

7648-7364 (15012)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 70%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 25 top traders (56%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.5%

69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$39.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

139.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.