Fenerbahçe SK vs. Liverpool FC: Both Teams to Score

10 of 23 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (43%) · Yes at 100¢ · $38K held · ended Nov 4

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 43%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$38.2K

Combined PnL

$4.5K

Smart Money Entry

64.9¢ → 100¢

+54% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 23 top traders (43%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes10 traders

Total Value$24.4K

Total Shares25,486

Combined PnL+$4.9K

No13 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares6,063

Combined PnL-$346.09

Yes — 43%No — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-31 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

26h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 70% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Yesavg 65.3¢	$16.2K	$20.2K	+$4.0K	51% 24219-22949 (47168)
AN AnonymousUsernameARB<$100	Noavg 35.4¢	$10.1K	$10.3K	+$208.45	71% 7114-2861 (9975)
└ No leg	Noavg 35.4¢	$7.9K	$8.1K	+$239.49
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 64.4¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	-$31.04
38 38791873984189	Yesavg 63.2¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$571.44	48% 59237-63255 (122492)
SE sentrio	Yesavg 64.3¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$13.66	50% 25481-25189 (50670)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Yesavg 62.9¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$62.03	56% 7896-6221 (14117)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 62.9¢	$657.3	$622.06	-$35.24
└ No leg	Noavg 42.8¢	$492.6	$465.81	-$26.79
NO NordhavenCap	Yesavg 58.5¢	$677.29	$1.0K	+$353.33	57% 2394-1787 (4181)
LI LimousinCTR	Noavg 38.2¢	$816.89	$779.64	-$37.25	54% 1189-1028 (2217)
NM NM-PCTR	Noavg 35.9¢	$425.63	$432.96	+$7.32	40% 1343-2035 (3378)
GC GC-PCTR	Noavg 36¢	$360	$365	+$5	39% 1338-2112 (3450)
RN1	Yesavg 65.9¢	$445.63	$358.01	-$87.62	53% 60059-52427 (112486)
0xheavy888ARB<$100	Yesavg 65.5¢	$334	$327	-$7	56% 7722-6185 (13907)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 65.5¢	$262	$254	-$8
└ No leg	Noavg 36¢	$72	$73	+$1
HRTradingARB<$100	Yesavg 66.7¢	$198.22	$191.31	-$6.91	51% 7648-7364 (15012)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 66.7¢	$148.93	$144.09	-$4.84
└ No leg	Noavg 37.1¢	$49.29	$47.21	-$2.08
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Noavg 35¢	$140	$140	+$0	51% 1790-1709 (3499)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Noavg 36.9¢	$97.26	$92.29	-$4.97	53% 16517-14663 (31180)
WA WagerWizard<$100	Yesavg 62.9¢	$82.67	$65.07	-$17.61	84% 14602-2798 (17400)
RO Rocky31<$100	Yesavg 91.4¢	$50.78	$49.44	-$1.34	75% 1845-630 (2475)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 36.9¢	$44.18	$44.96	+$4.3	58% 19455-14308 (33763)
US User7429<$100	Yesavg 69.1¢	$13.96	$17.98	+$4.02	56% 8924-7131 (16055)
LO lonmi2511CTR<$100	Noavg 35.7¢	$8.39	$8.59	+$0.19	55% 1303-1085 (2388)
nigiri99<$100	Yesavg 64.2¢	$5.77	$5.76	-$0.01	46% 8408-9878 (18286)
VeryLucky888	Yesavg 61.9¢	$150.35	$4.81	+$1.49	58% 45427-32914 (78341)
SL SlickRick123CTR<$100	Noavg 7.3¢	$1.54	$2.34	+$0.79	48% 5270-5763 (11033)
DI dips.CTR<$100	Noavg 7.3¢	$1.41	$2.12	+$0.71	47% 10355-11792 (22147)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Noavg 37.9¢	$220.94	$0.29	-$220.65	51% 1093-1042 (2135)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Noavg 29.5¢	$92.29	$0.16	-$92.13	47% 11071-12407 (23478)

Flaznorp

Yes

Invested

$16,164.98

Value

$20.2K

PnL

+$4.0K

Record

51%

24219-22949 (47168)

AnonymousUsernameARB<$100

Invested

$10,113.39

Value

$10.3K

PnL

+$208.45

Record

71%

7114-2861 (9975)

Both legs:

No$7,905.1835.4¢+$239.49

Yes$2,208.2164.4¢-$31.04

38791873984189

Yes

Invested

$1,370.25

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$571.44

Record

48%

59237-63255 (122492)

sentrio

Yes

Invested

$1,161.81

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$13.66

Record

50%

25481-25189 (50670)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$1,149.89

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$62.03

Record

56%

7896-6221 (14117)

Both legs:

Yes$657.362.9¢-$35.24

No$492.642.8¢-$26.79

NordhavenCap

Yes

Invested

$677.29

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$353.33

Record

57%

2394-1787 (4181)

LimousinCTR

Invested

$816.89

Value

$779.64

PnL

-$37.25

Record

54%

1189-1028 (2217)

NM-PCTR

Invested

$425.63

Value

$432.96

PnL

+$7.32

Record

40%

1343-2035 (3378)

GC-PCTR

Invested

$360

Value

$365

PnL

+$5

Record

39%

1338-2112 (3450)

RN1

Yes

Invested

$445.63

Value

$358.01

PnL

-$87.62

Record

53%

60059-52427 (112486)

0xheavy888ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$334

Value

$327

PnL

-$7

Record

56%

7722-6185 (13907)

Both legs:

Invested

$198.22

Value

$191.31

PnL

-$6.91

Record

51%

7648-7364 (15012)

Both legs:

Yes$148.9366.7¢-$4.84

No$49.2937.1¢-$2.08

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Invested

$140

Value

$140

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

1790-1709 (3499)

CannaeCTR<$100

Invested

$97.26

Value

$92.29

PnL

-$4.97

Record

53%

16517-14663 (31180)

WagerWizard<$100

Yes

Invested

$82.67

Value

$65.07

PnL

-$17.61

Record

84%

14602-2798 (17400)

Rocky31<$100

Yes

Invested

$50.78

Value

$49.44

PnL

-$1.34

Record

75%

1845-630 (2475)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$44.18

Value

$44.96

PnL

+$4.3

Record

58%

19455-14308 (33763)

User7429<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.96

Value

$17.98

PnL

+$4.02

Record

56%

8924-7131 (16055)

lonmi2511CTR<$100

Invested

$8.39

Value

$8.59

PnL

+$0.19

Record

55%

1303-1085 (2388)

nigiri99<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.77

Value

$5.76

PnL

-$0.01

Record

46%

8408-9878 (18286)

VeryLucky888

Yes

Invested

$150.35

Value

$4.81

PnL

+$1.49

Record

58%

45427-32914 (78341)

SlickRick123CTR<$100

Invested

$1.54

Value

$2.34

PnL

+$0.79

Record

48%

5270-5763 (11033)

dips.CTR<$100

Invested

$1.41

Value

$2.12

PnL

+$0.71

Record

47%

10355-11792 (22147)

MadridTimeCTR

Invested

$220.94

Value

$0.29

PnL

-$220.65

Record

51%

1093-1042 (2135)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Invested

$92.29

Value

$0.16

PnL

-$92.13

Record

47%

11071-12407 (23478)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 23 top traders (43%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-31 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

26h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 70% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.