Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Bayern München: 1st Half O/U 0.5

5 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Under (28%) · Under at 100¢ · $41K held · ended Nov 3

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 28%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$40.7K

Combined PnL

$-5.0K

Smart Money Entry

84.7¢ → 100¢

+18% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 18 top traders (28%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$33.2K

Total Shares35,368

Combined PnL+$1.8K

Over13 traders

Total Value$7.4K

Total Shares54,772

Combined PnL$-6.9K

Under — 28%Over — 72%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dashattacker	Underavg 81¢	$17.9K	$20.0K	+$2.1K	73% 2827-1071 (3898)
MI MinevaJ	Underavg 99¢	$9.1K	$9.2K	+$43.11	57% 1088-834 (1922)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Overavg 26.3¢	$5.4K	$4.7K	-$634.69	51% 23399-22168 (45567)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Underavg 74¢	$4.3K	$3.9K	-$449.81	56% 7530-5969 (13499)
RN1CTR	Overavg 20.1¢	$7.9K	$2.0K	$-5.9K	53% 59038-51355 (110393)
SU suntori	Underavg 35.9¢	$120.33	$198.3	+$152.29	45% 13648-16581 (30229)
LI LimousinCTR	Overavg 3¢	$163.02	$142.91	-$20.11	56% 942-736 (1678)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Overavg 11.4¢	$134.71	$120.16	-$14.56	47% 10564-11815 (22379)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Overavg 52.9¢	$195.09	$110.64	-$84.45	49% 14107-14668 (28775)
VE VenusianARB<$100	Underavg 36.7¢	$65.85	$103.52	+$37.67	53% 916-813 (1729)
└ Under leg	Underavg 36.7¢	$36.19	$77.82	+$41.63
└ Over leg	Overavg 24.2¢	$29.66	$25.71	-$3.96
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 25.8¢	$404.89	$100.98	-$256.83	48% 14393-15903 (30296)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Overavg 76¢	$63.33	$63.33	-$0	50% 35607-35082 (70689)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 76.8¢	$54.15	$37.97	-$16.18	58% 18597-13721 (32318)
MA MadridTime<$100	Underavg 34.4¢	$11.65	$15.09	+$3.43	52% 830-771 (1601)
poshposhCTR<$100	Overavg 5¢	$6.63	$12.6	+$5.97	57% 11866-8957 (20823)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Overavg 77.9¢	$5.45	$5.43	-$0.03	51% 7341-7085 (14426)
NO NordhavenCapCTR<$100	Overavg 78.9¢	$2.43	$2.37	-$0.06	57% 2315-1729 (4044)
DI dips.CTR<$100	Overavg 1¢	$2.98	$1.42	-$1.56	47% 10131-11459 (21590)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Overavg 1¢	$2.52	$1.2	-$1.32	48% 5287-5668 (10955)

dashattacker

Under

Invested

$17,887.42

Value

$20.0K

PnL

+$2.1K

Record

73%

2827-1071 (3898)

MinevaJ

Under

Invested

$9,128.25

Value

$9.2K

PnL

+$43.11

Record

57%

1088-834 (1922)

FlaznorpCTR

Over

Invested

$5,370.65

Value

$4.7K

PnL

-$634.69

Record

51%

23399-22168 (45567)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Under

Invested

$4,299.89

Value

$3.9K

PnL

-$449.81

Record

56%

7530-5969 (13499)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$7,907.28

Value

$2.0K

PnL

$-5.9K

Record

53%

59038-51355 (110393)

suntori

Under

Invested

$120.33

Value

$198.3

PnL

+$152.29

Record

45%

13648-16581 (30229)

LimousinCTR

Over

Invested

$163.02

Value

$142.91

PnL

-$20.11

Record

56%

942-736 (1678)

topdogbigboiCTR

Over

Invested

$134.71

Value

$120.16

PnL

-$14.56

Record

47%

10564-11815 (22379)

LuckyLooCTR

Over

Invested

$195.09

Value

$110.64

PnL

-$84.45

Record

49%

14107-14668 (28775)

VenusianARB<$100

Under

Invested

$65.85

Value

$103.52

PnL

+$37.67

Record

53%

916-813 (1729)

Both legs:

Under$36.1936.7¢+$41.63

Over$29.6624.2¢-$3.96

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$404.89

Value

$100.98

PnL

-$256.83

Record

48%

14393-15903 (30296)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$63.33

Value

$63.33

PnL

-$0

Record

50%

35607-35082 (70689)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$54.15

Value

$37.97

PnL

-$16.18

Record

58%

18597-13721 (32318)

MadridTime<$100

Under

Invested

$11.65

Value

$15.09

PnL

+$3.43

Record

52%

830-771 (1601)

poshposhCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$6.63

Value

$12.6

PnL

+$5.97

Record

57%

11866-8957 (20823)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$5.45

Value

$5.43

PnL

-$0.03

Record

51%

7341-7085 (14426)

NordhavenCapCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.43

Value

$2.37

PnL

-$0.06

Record

57%

2315-1729 (4044)

dips.CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.98

Value

$1.42

PnL

-$1.56

Record

47%

10131-11459 (21590)

smithagentCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.52

Value

$1.2

PnL

-$1.32

Record

48%

5287-5668 (10955)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 18 top traders (28%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.