Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw?

26 of 41 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 99¢ · $214K held · ended Nov 3

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 63%

Total Value

$214.3K

Combined PnL

$19.6K

Smart Money Entry

77.8¢ → 99.4¢

+28% since entry · 26 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

26 of 41 top traders (63%)15 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No26 traders

Total Value$170.6K

Total Shares185,141

Combined PnL+$22.5K

Yes15 traders

Total Value$43.7K

Total Shares163,761

Combined PnL$-3.0K

No — 63%Yes — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN Anon455	Noavg 74.1¢	$31.6K	$37.8K	+$6.1K	55% 3323-2713 (6036)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 77¢	$29.0K	$35.9K	+$6.9K	51% 23399-22168 (45567)
RN1	Noavg 71.6¢	$18.3K	$24.8K	+$6.5K	53% 59038-51355 (110393)
MI MinevaJ	Noavg 98.4¢	$24.5K	$24.6K	+$75.85	57% 1088-834 (1922)
CH ch27erCTR	Yesavg 30.4¢	$23.3K	$21.8K	$-1.5K	67% 16-8 (24)
CA CandleHammerDrums	Noavg 72¢	$15.9K	$15.8K	-$103.75	52% 6711-6252 (12963)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 75.4¢	$11.9K	$12.7K	+$757.75	50% 27298-27227 (54525)
SP SparYelCTR	Yesavg 27¢	$10.4K	$9.8K	-$562.31	49% 26-27 (53)
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186CTR	Yesavg 27¢	$9.5K	$9.0K	-$516.77	46% 486-561 (1047)
oieshfn345	Noavg 71.9¢	$4.7K	$5.1K	+$461.62	57% 1954-1449 (3403)
38 38791873984189	Noavg 77.9¢	$3.6K	$3.9K	+$957.61	48% 14393-15903 (30296)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Noavg 87.5¢	$2.6K	$2.8K	+$227.24	56% 7530-5969 (13499)
LI Lilybaeum	Noavg 75.7¢	$1.7K	$2.2K	+$489.42	61% 13937-8970 (22907)
XW xwingboy	Noavg 76.9¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$37.16	64% 309-172 (481)
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 24¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$24.7	58% 44610-32488 (77098)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Yesavg 27¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$66.44	50% 20187-20523 (40710)
NO NotJump	Noavg 73.1¢	$818.28	$926.72	+$108.44	44% 10222-13273 (23495)
BE Betziko	Noavg 74.9¢	$691.05	$738.34	+$47.29	54% 6742-5667 (12409)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Noavg 80.7¢	$343.65	$396.45	+$52.8	52% 14121-12894 (27015)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Noavg 76.9¢	$315.74	$309.95	-$5.8	51% 1717-1639 (3356)
AV averagejoetraders	Noavg 82.7¢	$281.5	$280.69	-$0.81	57% 616-471 (1087)
0X 0x0f3433d8b7596000bf1046aa822308d93cf67684CTR	Yesavg 19.8¢	$238.62	$223.3	-$15.32	37% 507-846 (1353)
LI LimousinCTR	Yesavg 33.1¢	$435.56	$217.32	-$218.24	56% 942-736 (1678)
FO foooool	Noavg 65.7¢	$158.67	$199.16	+$40.49	50% 11609-11459 (23068)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Yesavg 35¢	$119.15	$117.33	-$1.81	52% 830-771 (1601)

Anon455

Invested

$31,637.29

Value

$37.8K

PnL

+$6.1K

Record

55%

3323-2713 (6036)

Flaznorp

Invested

$28,985.8

Value

$35.9K

PnL

+$6.9K

Record

51%

23399-22168 (45567)

RN1

Invested

$18,332.25

Value

$24.8K

PnL

+$6.5K

Record

53%

59038-51355 (110393)

MinevaJ

Invested

$24,480.78

Value

$24.6K

PnL

+$75.85

Record

57%

1088-834 (1922)

ch27erCTR

Yes

Invested

$23,294.24

Value

$21.8K

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

67%

16-8 (24)

CandleHammerDrums

Invested

$15,941

Value

$15.8K

PnL

-$103.75

Record

52%

6711-6252 (12963)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$11,949.42

Value

$12.7K

PnL

+$757.75

Record

50%

27298-27227 (54525)

SparYelCTR

Yes

Invested

$10,370

Value

$9.8K

PnL

-$562.31

Record

49%

26-27 (53)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186CTR

Yes

Invested

$9,536.72

Value

$9.0K

PnL

-$516.77

Record

46%

486-561 (1047)

oieshfn345

Invested

$4,667.12

Value

$5.1K

PnL

+$461.62

Record

57%

1954-1449 (3403)

38791873984189

Invested

$3,577.18

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$957.61

Record

48%

14393-15903 (30296)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Invested

$2,574.31

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$227.24

Record

56%

7530-5969 (13499)

Lilybaeum

Invested

$1,723.45

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$489.42

Record

61%

13937-8970 (22907)

xwingboy

Invested

$2,024

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$37.16

Record

64%

309-172 (481)

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,181.01

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$24.7

Record

58%

44610-32488 (77098)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,225.27

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$66.44

Record

50%

20187-20523 (40710)

NotJump

Invested

$818.28

Value

$926.72

PnL

+$108.44

Record

44%

10222-13273 (23495)

Betziko

Invested

$691.05

Value

$738.34

PnL

+$47.29

Record

54%

6742-5667 (12409)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Invested

$343.65

Value

$396.45

PnL

+$52.8

Record

52%

14121-12894 (27015)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Invested

$315.74

Value

$309.95

PnL

-$5.8

Record

51%

1717-1639 (3356)

averagejoetraders

Invested

$281.5

Value

$280.69

PnL

-$0.81

Record

57%

616-471 (1087)

0x0f3433d8b7596000bf1046aa822308d93cf67684CTR

Yes

Invested

$238.62

Value

$223.3

PnL

-$15.32

Record

37%

507-846 (1353)

LimousinCTR

Yes

Invested

$435.56

Value

$217.32

PnL

-$218.24

Record

56%

942-736 (1678)

foooool

Invested

$158.67

Value

$199.16

PnL

+$40.49

Record

50%

11609-11459 (23068)

MadridTimeCTR

Yes

Invested

$119.15

Value

$117.33

PnL

-$1.81

Record

52%

830-771 (1601)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

26 of 41 top traders (63%)15 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.