Çaykur Rizespor vs. Erzurumspor FK: O/U 2.5

3 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Over (25%) · Over at 100¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 8

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 25%

Total Value

$7.9K

Combined PnL

$-5.3K

Smart Money Entry

76.2¢ → 100¢

+31% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 12 top traders (25%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$5.1K

Total Shares10,106

Combined PnL$-2.6K

Under9 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares18,754

Combined PnL$-2.7K

Over — 25%Under — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dartanyan150	Overavg 76¢	$7.6K	$5.0K	$-2.6K	58% 257-186 (443)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Underavg 26.4¢	$1.7K	$2.4K	+$671.09	48% 1776-1912 (3688)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Underavg 42.4¢	$288.28	$340.07	+$51.79	49% 1800-1902 (3702)
WA WagerWizard	Overavg 95¢	$96.24	$101.25	+$5.01	84% 15082-2932 (18014)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoGCTR<$100	Underavg 49.2¢	$35.91	$36.46	+$0.55	59% 6954-4900 (11854)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 44.2¢	$22.81	$25.79	+$2.98	49% 1844-1936 (3780)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Overavg 56.2¢	$5.21	$5	-$0.21	52% 9022-8174 (17196)
dips.CTR<$100	Underavg 1¢	$1.39	$4.62	+$3.23	47% 11040-12658 (23698)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 27.7¢	$2.2K	$3.96	$-2.2K	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
LI LimousinCTR	Underavg 27.3¢	$584.25	$1.07	-$583.19	50% 1850-1866 (3716)
RN1CTR	Underavg 64.1¢	$565.72	$0.44	-$565.28	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Underavg 21.5¢	$56.41	$0.13	-$56.28	50% 29172-29037 (58209)

dartanyan150

Over

Invested

$7,599.96

Value

$5.0K

PnL

$-2.6K

Record

58%

257-186 (443)

MadridTimeCTR

Under

Invested

$1,746.17

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$671.09

Record

48%

1776-1912 (3688)

LightParadoxCTR

Under

Invested

$288.28

Value

$340.07

PnL

+$51.79

Record

49%

1800-1902 (3702)

WagerWizard

Over

Invested

$96.24

Value

$101.25

PnL

+$5.01

Record

84%

15082-2932 (18014)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoGCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$35.91

Value

$36.46

PnL

+$0.55

Record

59%

6954-4900 (11854)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$22.81

Value

$25.79

PnL

+$2.98

Record

49%

1844-1936 (3780)

ameisgoat11<$100

Over

Invested

$5.21

Value

PnL

-$0.21

Record

52%

9022-8174 (17196)

dips.CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.39

Value

$4.62

PnL

+$3.23

Record

47%

11040-12658 (23698)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$2,188.41

Value

$3.96

PnL

$-2.2K

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

LimousinCTR

Under

Invested

$584.25

Value

$1.07

PnL

-$583.19

Record

50%

1850-1866 (3716)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$565.72

Value

$0.44

PnL

-$565.28

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$56.41

Value

$0.13

PnL

-$56.28

Record

50%

29172-29037 (58209)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 12 top traders (25%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.