Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (79%). 5 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will BK Hacken win on 2026-11-08?

5 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (38%) · Yes at 22¢ · $21K held · ended Nov 8

Yes22¢No78¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 38%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$20.7K

Combined PnL

$535.98

Smart Money Entry

65.1¢ → 21.5¢

-67% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 22%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 13 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors No 79%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes22%

No79%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$8.3K

Total Shares17,917

Combined PnL$-3.4K

No8 traders

Total Value$12.1K

Total Shares15,107

Combined PnL+$3.9K

Yes — 38%No — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NB nb1985CTR	Yesavg 67¢	$10.2K	$7.4K	$-2.7K	52% 33-31 (64)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 40.8¢	$4.2K	$5.0K	+$817.88	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
RN1	Noavg 38.6¢	$2.2K	$4.4K	+$2.2K	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
LooksMaxing101	Noavg 38.6¢	$1.0K	$1.4K	+$331.91	51% 888-849 (1737)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 34¢	$674.17	$1.3K	+$600.75	50% 29172-29037 (58209)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Yesavg 57.8¢	$1.4K	$718.26	-$642.47	50% 21821-22062 (43883)
SP spyGoodLuck77ARB<$100	Noavg 60.9¢	$261.06	$255.4	-$5.66	62% 1928-1173 (3101)
└ No leg	Noavg 60.9¢	$169.64	$193.6	+$23.96
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 45.1¢	$91.43	$61.8	-$29.63
FI FinalOrderCTR	Yesavg 32.1¢	$103.45	$98.39	-$5.06	46% 229-267 (496)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 44¢	$40.06	$46.43	+$6.37	50% 26504-26107 (52611)
LR lryyy<$100	Noavg 55¢	$20.68	$22	+$1.32	47% 9585-10702 (20287)
SL SlickRick123<$100	Noavg 55¢	$13.2	$16.92	+$3.72	48% 5549-6067 (11616)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Yesavg 47¢	$23.5	$11.25	-$12.25	59% 33715-23828 (57543)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Noavg 67¢	$5.05	$5	-$0.05	64% 5377-2997 (8374)
WA WagerWizardCTR<$100	Yesavg 32¢	$2.26	$1.52	-$0.74	84% 15082-2932 (18014)

nb1985CTR

Yes

Invested

$10,170.68

Value

$7.4K

PnL

$-2.7K

Record

52%

33-31 (64)

Flaznorp

Invested

$4,178.74

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$817.88

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

RN1

Invested

$2,240.89

Value

$4.4K

PnL

+$2.2K

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

LooksMaxing101

Invested

$1,028.96

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$331.91

Record

51%

888-849 (1737)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$674.17

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$600.75

Record

50%

29172-29037 (58209)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,360.74

Value

$718.26

PnL

-$642.47

Record

50%

21821-22062 (43883)

spyGoodLuck77ARB<$100

Invested

$261.06

Value

$255.4

PnL

-$5.66

Record

62%

1928-1173 (3101)

Both legs:

No$169.6460.9¢+$23.96

Yes$91.4345.1¢-$29.63

FinalOrderCTR

Yes

Invested

$103.45

Value

$98.39

PnL

-$5.06

Record

46%

229-267 (496)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$40.06

Value

$46.43

PnL

+$6.37

Record

50%

26504-26107 (52611)

lryyy<$100

Invested

$20.68

Value

$22

PnL

+$1.32

Record

47%

9585-10702 (20287)

SlickRick123<$100

Invested

$13.2

Value

$16.92

PnL

+$3.72

Record

48%

5549-6067 (11616)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.5

Value

$11.25

PnL

-$12.25

Record

59%

33715-23828 (57543)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Invested

$5.05

Value

PnL

-$0.05

Record

64%

5377-2997 (8374)

WagerWizardCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.26

Value

$1.52

PnL

-$0.74

Record

84%

15082-2932 (18014)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 22%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 13 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors No 79%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance23.4%

21.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$327.86

Max Loss

-$100.00

427.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.