Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (98%). 28 of 40 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club vs. Al Fayha Saudi Club end in a draw?

28 of 40 top Polymarket traders hold No (70%) · No at 2.4¢ · $224K held · ends Nov 5

Yes98¢No2¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 70%

Total Value

$224.3K

Combined PnL

$-26.5K

Smart Money Entry

52.4¢ → 2.4¢

-96% since entry · 28 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

28 of 40 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 98%)28 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes98%

No2%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes12 traders

Total Value$204.0K

Total Shares209,292

Combined PnL+$102.3K

No28 traders

Total Value$20.3K

Total Shares272,107

Combined PnL$-128.9K

Yes — 30%No — 70%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

28 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Mature

30h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 83% · 6

Aligned

sharpYes 80% · 5

Diverging

ctrNo 65% · 23

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 70% · 37

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
shineforever	Yesavg 38.4¢	$21.9K	$56.8K	+$33.9K	58% 83-61 (144)
DI dips.	Yesavg 89.6¢	$27.0K	$24.3K	+$2.5K	47% 10355-11792 (22147)
bot-rapin	Yesavg 33.1¢	$7.8K	$22.7K	+$14.9K	— 4-0 (4)
morito181	Yesavg 64.8¢	$14.6K	$21.9K	+$7.3K	61% 860-552 (1412)
0X 0xd37d84a14d70ac7300defe9997074b3b3fd7c70	Yesavg 18¢	$3.6K	$19.8K	+$16.0K	75% 110-36 (146)
0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb50dF121	Yesavg 40.2¢	$7.3K	$17.6K	+$10.3K	83% 81-17 (98)
LU lukibazdonauki754	Yesavg 76.7¢	$13.8K	$16.5K	+$2.7K	60% 911-595 (1506)
BT btna	Yesavg 46.3¢	$6.9K	$12.0K	+$6.1K	71% 42-17 (59)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Noavg 16¢	$16.5K	$11.0K	$-5.7K	50% 20734-20980 (41714)
HR HRAImail-.-	Yesavg 23.9¢	$2.0K	$7.9K	+$6.0K	— 13-3 (16)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 76.1¢	$79.8K	$4.7K	$-75.1K	51% 24219-22949 (47168)
RO roscoff	Yesavg 42.6¢	$1.7K	$3.9K	+$2.1K	52% 173-159 (332)
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR	Noavg 58.8¢	$37.3K	$2.6K	$-35.4K	50% 525-521 (1046)
xxNyx	Yesavg 87.9¢	$4.6K	$562.7	+$458.74	82% 1800-403 (2203)
QW qwen300.fundCTR	Noavg 21.6¢	$3.9K	$554.42	$-2.3K	59% 11831-8157 (19988)
PU purplegattoCTR	Noavg 57.6¢	$5.8K	$415.52	$-5.2K	49% 6203-6345 (12548)
BI BiggggggggCTR	Noavg 28.2¢	$1.5K	$158.67	-$879.05	42% 3178-4309 (7487)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR	Noavg 2.3¢	$203.94	$116.63	+$1.8K	39% 1054-1655 (2709)
38 38791873984189CTR	Noavg 79.4¢	$1.9K	$102.48	$-1.8K	48% 59237-63255 (122492)
E4 e46m3CTR	Noavg 7¢	$271.15	$87.02	-$150.99	72% 13948-5333 (19281)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR	Noavg 26.4¢	$419.47	$83.3	-$67.69	39% 1084-1679 (2763)
HRTradingCTR	Noavg 74¢	$1.4K	$79.38	$-1.4K	51% 7648-7364 (15012)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR	Noavg 22.7¢	$214.48	$77.82	-$63.72	55% 4408-3603 (8011)
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 88¢	$1.3K	$61.5	$-1.3K	58% 45427-32914 (78341)
ifyouloveme<$100	Yesavg 39¢	$23.4	$58.74	+$34.47	55% 326-271 (597)

shineforever

Yes

Invested

$21,949.52

Value

$56.8K

PnL

+$33.9K

Record

58%

83-61 (144)

dips.

Yes

Invested

$26,979.99

Value

$24.3K

PnL

+$2.5K

Record

47%

10355-11792 (22147)

bot-rapin

Yes

Invested

$7,759.12

Value

$22.7K

PnL

+$14.9K

Record

—

4-0 (4)

morito181

Yes

Invested

$14,619.66

Value

$21.9K

PnL

+$7.3K

Record

61%

860-552 (1412)

0xd37d84a14d70ac7300defe9997074b3b3fd7c70

Yes

Invested

$3,639.18

Value

$19.8K

PnL

+$16.0K

Record

75%

110-36 (146)

0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb50dF121

Yes

Invested

$7,318.03

Value

$17.6K

PnL

+$10.3K

Record

83%

81-17 (98)

lukibazdonauki754

Yes

Invested

$13,843.72

Value

$16.5K

PnL

+$2.7K

Record

60%

911-595 (1506)

btna

Yes

Invested

$6,903.31

Value

$12.0K

PnL

+$6.1K

Record

71%

42-17 (59)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Invested

$16,549.66

Value

$11.0K

PnL

$-5.7K

Record

50%

20734-20980 (41714)

HRAImail-.-

Yes

Invested

$1,955.32

Value

$7.9K

PnL

+$6.0K

Record

—

13-3 (16)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$79,760.44

Value

$4.7K

PnL

$-75.1K

Record

51%

24219-22949 (47168)

roscoff

Yes

Invested

$1,680.38

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$2.1K

Record

52%

173-159 (332)

0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR

Invested

$37,263.03

Value

$2.6K

PnL

$-35.4K

Record

50%

525-521 (1046)

xxNyx

Yes

Invested

$4,554.68

Value

$562.7

PnL

+$458.74

Record

82%

1800-403 (2203)

qwen300.fundCTR

Invested

$3,875.01

Value

$554.42

PnL

$-2.3K

Record

59%

11831-8157 (19988)

purplegattoCTR

Invested

$5,842.31

Value

$415.52

PnL

$-5.2K

Record

49%

6203-6345 (12548)

BiggggggggCTR

Invested

$1,480.85

Value

$158.67

PnL

-$879.05

Record

42%

3178-4309 (7487)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR

Invested

$203.94

Value

$116.63

PnL

+$1.8K

Record

39%

1054-1655 (2709)

38791873984189CTR

Invested

$1,949.3

Value

$102.48

PnL

$-1.8K

Record

48%

59237-63255 (122492)

e46m3CTR

Invested

$271.15

Value

$87.02

PnL

-$150.99

Record

72%

13948-5333 (19281)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR

Invested

$419.47

Value

$83.3

PnL

-$67.69

Record

39%

1084-1679 (2763)

HRTradingCTR

Invested

$1,432.08

Value

$79.38

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

51%

7648-7364 (15012)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR

Invested

$214.48

Value

$77.82

PnL

-$63.72

Record

55%

4408-3603 (8011)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$1,345.56

Value

$61.5

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

58%

45427-32914 (78341)

ifyouloveme<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.4

Value

$58.74

PnL

+$34.47

Record

55%

326-271 (597)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

28 of 40 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 98%)28 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

28 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Mature

30h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 83% · 6

Aligned

sharpYes 80% · 5

Diverging

ctrNo 65% · 23

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 70% · 37

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance3.5%

2.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2747.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

2847.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.