Will Al Kholood Saudi Club vs. Al Khaleej Saudi Club end in a draw?

6 of 27 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (22%) · Yes at 99¢ · $42K held · ends Nov 5

Yes99¢No1¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 22%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$42.5K

Combined PnL

$14.1K

Smart Money Entry

63.3¢ → 98.7¢

+56% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 27 top traders (22%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed21 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes99%

No1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$39.6K

Total Shares40,536

Combined PnL+$14.9K

No21 traders

Total Value$603.54

Total Shares20,008

Combined PnL-$892.63

Yes — 22%No — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Mature

43h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

22% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 4

Diverging

sharpNo 60% · 5

Diverging

ctrNo 75% · 12

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000No 78% · 23

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DI dips.	Yesavg 79.9¢	$11.6K	$14.2K	+$2.6K	47% 10501-11996 (22497)
JA JabJabich	Yesavg 30.8¢	$2.8K	$9.0K	+$6.3K	60% 185-123 (308)
LU lukibazdonauki754	Yesavg 82.8¢	$10.2K	$7.2K	+$1.8K	61% 925-599 (1524)
0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb50dF121	Yesavg 39.3¢	$1.5K	$3.8K	+$2.3K	82% 84-18 (102)
RO roscoff	Yesavg 39.6¢	$1.1K	$2.8K	+$1.7K	51% 174-169 (343)
xxNyx	Yesavg 92.1¢	$4.3K	$2.6K	+$278.74	82% 1809-404 (2213)
OM omnibus-076daaARB<$100	Noavg 15.2¢	$10.5K	$2.2K	$-8.3K	50% 21032-21299 (42331)
└ No leg	Noavg 15.2¢	$9.6K	$1.2K	$-8.4K
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 87.7¢	$933.67	$1.0K	+$86.75
CI cigarettesCTR	Noavg 17.5¢	$722.59	$288.57	+$253.36	53% 23002-20232 (43234)
PU purplegattoCTR	Noavg 57.9¢	$2.3K	$74.87	$-2.0K	49% 6256-6415 (12671)
38 38791873984189CTR	Noavg 57.8¢	$1.5K	$48.93	$-1.4K	48% 60430-65044 (125474)
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 67.1¢	$2.3K	$37.47	$-1.3K	58% 46107-33290 (79397)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Noavg 1.4¢	$99.28	$35.36	+$2.7K	41% 1203-1759 (2962)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Noavg 4.7¢	$63.46	$25.7	-$37.77	53% 16587-14762 (31349)
2B9SCTR<$100	Noavg 3.3¢	$36.7	$21.37	-$15.32	18% 4414-20716 (25130)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Noavg 4.5¢	$80.53	$19.32	+$217.66	35% 18692-34699 (53391)
E4 e46m3CTR	Noavg 5.6¢	$195.19	$10.71	+$919.32	72% 14121-5435 (19556)
BU Burkilota1CTR	Noavg 35.5¢	$181.01	$9.7	-$174.63	63% 762-453 (1215)
KO korda77CTR<$100	Noavg 7.4¢	$56	$9.45	-$27.49	44% 6563-8231 (14794)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Noavg 2.4¢	$9.19	$7.32	-$1.88	47% 11436-12872 (24308)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Noavg 8.5¢	$2.77	$3.3	+$0.53	63% 9246-5377 (14623)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Noavg 10.4¢	$67.86	$3.01	-$13.45	42% 1214-1705 (2919)
GC GC-PCTR<$100	Noavg 8.4¢	$1.9	$2.41	+$0.51	63% 9306-5458 (14764)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR	Noavg 13.8¢	$121.87	$2.02	-$3.09	55% 4477-3683 (8160)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Noavg 9.3¢	$76.89	$1.39	-$8.96	47% 2242-2511 (4753)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Noavg 14.2¢	$74.83	$0.91	-$9.43	41% 2306-3340 (5646)

dips.

Yes

Invested

$11,572.98

Value

$14.2K

PnL

+$2.6K

Record

47%

10501-11996 (22497)

JabJabich

Yes

Invested

$2,837.91

Value

$9.0K

PnL

+$6.3K

Record

60%

185-123 (308)

lukibazdonauki754

Yes

Invested

$10,161.84

Value

$7.2K

PnL

+$1.8K

Record

61%

925-599 (1524)

0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb50dF121

Yes

Invested

$1,520.4

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$2.3K

Record

82%

84-18 (102)

roscoff

Yes

Invested

$1,142.93

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

51%

174-169 (343)

xxNyx

Yes

Invested

$4,296.1

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$278.74

Record

82%

1809-404 (2213)

omnibus-076daaARB<$100

Invested

$10,496.89

Value

$2.2K

PnL

$-8.3K

Record

50%

21032-21299 (42331)

Both legs:

No$9,563.2215.2¢$-8.4K

Yes$933.6787.7¢+$86.75

cigarettesCTR

Invested

$722.59

Value

$288.57

PnL

+$253.36

Record

53%

23002-20232 (43234)

purplegattoCTR

Invested

$2,281.02

Value

$74.87

PnL

$-2.0K

Record

49%

6256-6415 (12671)

38791873984189CTR

Invested

$1,533.93

Value

$48.93

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

48%

60430-65044 (125474)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$2,349.98

Value

$37.47

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

58%

46107-33290 (79397)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Invested

$99.28

Value

$35.36

PnL

+$2.7K

Record

41%

1203-1759 (2962)

CannaeCTR<$100

Invested

$63.46

Value

$25.7

PnL

-$37.77

Record

53%

16587-14762 (31349)

2B9SCTR<$100

Invested

$36.7

Value

$21.37

PnL

-$15.32

Record

18%

4414-20716 (25130)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Invested

$80.53

Value

$19.32

PnL

+$217.66

Record

35%

18692-34699 (53391)

e46m3CTR

Invested

$195.19

Value

$10.71

PnL

+$919.32

Record

72%

14121-5435 (19556)

Burkilota1CTR

Invested

$181.01

Value

$9.7

PnL

-$174.63

Record

63%

762-453 (1215)

korda77CTR<$100

Invested

$56

Value

$9.45

PnL

-$27.49

Record

44%

6563-8231 (14794)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Invested

$9.19

Value

$7.32

PnL

-$1.88

Record

47%

11436-12872 (24308)

NM-PCTR<$100

Invested

$2.77

Value

$3.3

PnL

+$0.53

Record

63%

9246-5377 (14623)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Invested

$67.86

Value

$3.01

PnL

-$13.45

Record

42%

1214-1705 (2919)

GC-PCTR<$100

Invested

$1.9

Value

$2.41

PnL

+$0.51

Record

63%

9306-5458 (14764)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR

Invested

$121.87

Value

$2.02

PnL

-$3.09

Record

55%

4477-3683 (8160)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Invested

$76.89

Value

$1.39

PnL

-$8.96

Record

47%

2242-2511 (4753)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Invested

$74.83

Value

$0.91

PnL

-$9.43

Record

41%

2306-3340 (5646)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 27 top traders (22%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed21 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Mature

43h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

22% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 4

Diverging

sharpNo 60% · 5

Diverging

ctrNo 75% · 12

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000No 78% · 23

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.7%

98.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.