Will Al Hazem SC vs. Al Nassr Saudi Club end in a draw?

12 of 22 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (55%) · Yes at 99¢ · $49K held · ends Nov 6

Yes99¢No1¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 55%

Total Value

$49.4K

Combined PnL

$5.2K

Smart Money Entry

54.9¢ → 99¢

+80% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

12 of 22 top traders (55%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes99%

No1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes12 traders

Total Value$46.7K

Total Shares47,083

Combined PnL+$20.4K

No10 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares48,540

Combined PnL$-15.2K

Yes — 55%No — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Late

62h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

65% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 4

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 62% · 13

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 18

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BT btna	Yesavg 49.5¢	$8.7K	$17.4K	+$8.7K	69% 42-19 (61)
0X 0xd37d84a14d70ac7300defe9997074b3b3fd7c70	Yesavg 20.7¢	$1.9K	$9.2K	+$7.3K	74% 111-38 (149)
bot-rapin	Yesavg 98.5¢	$5.1K	$5.1K	+$28.54	— 6-0 (6)
DI dips.	Yesavg 96.7¢	$3.8K	$3.9K	+$98.23	47% 10633-12155 (22788)
0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb50dF121	Yesavg 27.5¢	$844.64	$3.0K	+$2.2K	83% 89-18 (107)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Noavg 29.6¢	$5.1K	$2.3K	$-2.8K	50% 21194-21457 (42651)
LU lukibazdonauki754	Yesavg 84.9¢	$2.1K	$2.2K	+$86.15	61% 960-605 (1565)
JA JabJabich	Yesavg 24.5¢	$505.28	$2.0K	+$1.5K	60% 190-125 (315)
xxNyx	Yesavg 86.3¢	$1.8K	$1.9K	+$77.58	82% 1815-404 (2219)
donube	Yesavg 97.1¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$27.25	61% 875-556 (1431)
RO roscoff	Yesavg 39.7¢	$176.69	$442.2	+$265.67	50% 174-171 (345)
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR	Noavg 50.8¢	$15.2K	$330	$-14.7K	50% 542-539 (1081)
SH shiifoo	Yesavg 24.5¢	$30.05	$123.44	+$93.39	47% 4062-4615 (8677)
BI Bigggggggg<$100	Yesavg 52.4¢	$18.57	$41.12	+$22.55	31% 3256-7119 (10375)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR	Noavg 1.3¢	$136.9	$30.87	+$4.1K	38% 1203-1987 (3190)
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 80.4¢	$2.0K	$23.36	$-1.7K	58% 46712-33673 (80385)
QW qwen300.fundCTR	Noavg 14.5¢	$1.1K	$13.31	-$40.9	54% 12474-10723 (23197)
BU Burkilota1CTR	Noavg 22.4¢	$181.01	$7.26	-$173.76	62% 777-469 (1246)
KO korda77CTR	Noavg 4.3¢	$143.51	$4.57	+$9.97	38% 7155-11768 (18923)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR	Noavg 18.3¢	$244.51	$0.27	-$4.48	44% 2301-2915 (5216)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100	Noavg 86¢	$9.99	$0.13	-$9.76	53% 2579-2261 (4840)
ME merodCTR	Noavg 5.5¢	$122.75	$0.02	+$5.19	34% 3324-6350 (9674)

btna

Yes

Invested

$8,695.2

Value

$17.4K

PnL

+$8.7K

Record

69%

42-19 (61)

0xd37d84a14d70ac7300defe9997074b3b3fd7c70

Yes

Invested

$1,918.06

Value

$9.2K

PnL

+$7.3K

Record

74%

111-38 (149)

bot-rapin

Yes

Invested

$5,091.34

Value

$5.1K

PnL

+$28.54

Record

—

6-0 (6)

dips.

Yes

Invested

$3,750.92

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$98.23

Record

47%

10633-12155 (22788)

0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb50dF121

Yes

Invested

$844.64

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$2.2K

Record

83%

89-18 (107)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Invested

$5,092.41

Value

$2.3K

PnL

$-2.8K

Record

50%

21194-21457 (42651)

lukibazdonauki754

Yes

Invested

$2,071.84

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$86.15

Record

61%

960-605 (1565)

JabJabich

Yes

Invested

$505.28

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

60%

190-125 (315)

xxNyx

Yes

Invested

$1,820.22

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$77.58

Record

82%

1815-404 (2219)

donube

Yes

Invested

$1,386.22

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$27.25

Record

61%

875-556 (1431)

roscoff

Yes

Invested

$176.69

Value

$442.2

PnL

+$265.67

Record

50%

174-171 (345)

0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR

Invested

$15,250

Value

$330

PnL

$-14.7K

Record

50%

542-539 (1081)

shiifoo

Yes

Invested

$30.05

Value

$123.44

PnL

+$93.39

Record

47%

4062-4615 (8677)

Bigggggggg<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.57

Value

$41.12

PnL

+$22.55

Record

31%

3256-7119 (10375)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR

Invested

$136.9

Value

$30.87

PnL

+$4.1K

Record

38%

1203-1987 (3190)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$2,018.25

Value

$23.36

PnL

$-1.7K

Record

58%

46712-33673 (80385)

qwen300.fundCTR

Invested

$1,050.3

Value

$13.31

PnL

-$40.9

Record

54%

12474-10723 (23197)

Burkilota1CTR

Invested

$181.01

Value

$7.26

PnL

-$173.76

Record

62%

777-469 (1246)

korda77CTR

Invested

$143.51

Value

$4.57

PnL

+$9.97

Record

38%

7155-11768 (18923)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR

Invested

$244.51

Value

$0.27

PnL

-$4.48

Record

44%

2301-2915 (5216)

rayvanmechelenCTR<$100

Invested

$9.99

Value

$0.13

PnL

-$9.76

Record

53%

2579-2261 (4840)

merodCTR

Invested

$122.75

Value

$0.02

PnL

+$5.19

Record

34%

3324-6350 (9674)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

12 of 22 top traders (55%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Late

62h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

65% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 4

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 62% · 13

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 18

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.