Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (92%). 4 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Exact Score: Al Ahli Saudi Club 0 - 0 Al Taawoun Saudi Club?

4 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 8.0¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 7

Yes92¢No8¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 33%

Total Value

$7.5K

Combined PnL

$-5.4K

Smart Money Entry

78.7¢ → 8¢

-90% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 8%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 12 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 92%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes92%

No8%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$6.1K

Total Shares6,432

Combined PnL+$3.5K

No4 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares19,466

Combined PnL$-9.0K

Yes — 67%No — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 3

Diverging

ctrYes 78% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 67% · 12

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb20dF121	Yesavg 15.2¢	$609.99	$3.8K	+$2.9K	82% 75-17 (92)
DI dips.	Yesavg 95.1¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$2.94	47% 10150-11471 (21621)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 83.1¢	$5.1K	$728.87	$-4.3K	51% 23440-22208 (45648)
RO roscoff	Yesavg 30¢	$212.36	$671.29	+$414.1	53% 172-152 (324)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Noavg 74.4¢	$5.0K	$598.02	$-4.4K	50% 35629-35110 (70739)
WH whosay	Yesavg 59.5¢	$161.14	$257	+$27.21	56% 1126-879 (2005)
0X 0xd37d84a14d70ac7300defe9997074b3b3fd7c70	Yesavg 17¢	$27.03	$150.79	+$115.28	75% 108-36 (144)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Yesavg 31¢	$17.37	$53.14	+$35.77	35% 17577-32882 (50459)
HRTradingCTR	Noavg 79.9¢	$287.93	$25.22	-$262.71	51% 7362-7108 (14470)
E4 e46m3<$100	Yesavg 3¢	$0.75	$23.74	+$18.1	73% 13459-5011 (18470)
morito181<$100	Yesavg 63¢	$9.08	$13.67	+$3.67	61% 847-548 (1395)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Noavg 11¢	$16.5	$10.5	-$6	20% 2494-9935 (12429)

0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb20dF121

Yes

Invested

$609.99

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$2.9K

Record

82%

75-17 (92)

dips.

Yes

Invested

$1,139.96

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$2.94

Record

47%

10150-11471 (21621)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$5,057.7

Value

$728.87

PnL

$-4.3K

Record

51%

23440-22208 (45648)

roscoff

Yes

Invested

$212.36

Value

$671.29

PnL

+$414.1

Record

53%

172-152 (324)

SnakeBallCTR

Invested

$4,991.48

Value

$598.02

PnL

$-4.4K

Record

50%

35629-35110 (70739)

whosay

Yes

Invested

$161.14

Value

$257

PnL

+$27.21

Record

56%

1126-879 (2005)

0xd37d84a14d70ac7300defe9997074b3b3fd7c70

Yes

Invested

$27.03

Value

$150.79

PnL

+$115.28

Record

75%

108-36 (144)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.37

Value

$53.14

PnL

+$35.77

Record

35%

17577-32882 (50459)

HRTradingCTR

Invested

$287.93

Value

$25.22

PnL

-$262.71

Record

51%

7362-7108 (14470)

e46m3<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.75

Value

$23.74

PnL

+$18.1

Record

73%

13459-5011 (18470)

morito181<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.08

Value

$13.67

PnL

+$3.67

Record

61%

847-548 (1395)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Invested

$16.5

Value

$10.5

PnL

-$6

Record

20%

2494-9935 (12429)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 8%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 12 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 92%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 3

Diverging

ctrYes 78% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 67% · 12

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance9.4%

8.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$962.76

Max Loss

-$100.00

1062.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.