Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (98%). 19 of 30 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Al Ahli Saudi Club vs. Al Taawoun Saudi Club end in a draw?

19 of 30 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 2.1¢ · $60K held · ends Nov 7

Yes98¢No2¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 63%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$60.1K

Combined PnL

$-4.8K

Smart Money Entry

58.6¢ → 2.1¢

-96% since entry · 19 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

19 of 30 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 98%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed19 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes98%

No2%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes11 traders

Total Value$57.6K

Total Shares59,296

Combined PnL+$27.7K

No19 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares59,784

Combined PnL$-32.4K

Yes — 37%No — 63%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

18 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Mature

34h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

62% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 60% · 5

Diverging

ctrNo 53% · 17

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 61% · 28

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
morito181	Yesavg 41¢	$8.1K	$19.2K	+$11.1K	61% 860-552 (1412)
shineforever	Yesavg 56.9¢	$6.5K	$11.1K	+$4.6K	58% 83-61 (144)
DI dips.	Yesavg 88.9¢	$8.6K	$9.4K	+$851.2	47% 10359-11793 (22152)
JA JabJabich	Yesavg 24.3¢	$1.2K	$4.5K	+$3.3K	62% 179-108 (287)
BT btna	Yesavg 54.1¢	$2.4K	$4.3K	+$1.9K	71% 42-17 (59)
bot-rapin	Yesavg 37¢	$1.2K	$3.2K	+$2.0K	— 4-0 (4)
0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb50dF121	Yesavg 30¢	$777.31	$2.5K	+$1.7K	83% 81-17 (98)
0X 0xd37d84a14d70ac7300defe9997074b3b3fd7c70	Yesavg 21.9¢	$407.04	$1.8K	+$1.4K	75% 110-36 (146)
RO roscoff	Yesavg 37.7¢	$453.5	$1.2K	+$712.46	52% 173-159 (332)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 69¢	$19.1K	$1.1K	$-18.0K	51% 24233-22959 (47192)
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR	Noavg 59.5¢	$10.7K	$702	$-10.1K	50% 525-521 (1046)
LU lukibazdonauki754	Yesavg 94¢	$173.86	$179.36	+$5.18	60% 911-595 (1506)
WH whosay	Yesavg 56.9¢	$93.19	$158.34	+$65.15	56% 1135-882 (2017)
OM omnibus-076daaARB<$100	Noavg 23.4¢	$696.4	$141.11	-$563.99	50% 20743-20989 (41732)
└ No leg	Noavg 23.4¢	$674.38	$112.25	-$570.65
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 74¢	$22.02	$28.86	+$6.67
QW qwen300.fundCTR	Noavg 32.1¢	$1.0K	$124.82	-$903.9	59% 11839-8177 (20016)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR	Noavg 5.1¢	$148.9	$100.25	+$146.4	41% 1183-1676 (2859)
38 38791873984189CTR	Noavg 67.8¢	$1.7K	$97.36	$-1.6K	48% 59324-63332 (122656)
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 76.3¢	$1.4K	$64.35	$-1.2K	58% 45442-32918 (78360)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Noavg 7¢	$83.99	$46.77	-$37.22	20% 2590-10277 (12867)
HRTradingCTR	Noavg 67.8¢	$746.58	$42.96	-$703.62	51% 7653-7369 (15022)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 9.8¢	$79.75	$25.14	-$54.61	53% 22636-19888 (42524)
BI BiggggggggCTR	Noavg 36¢	$105.83	$9.22	-$75.8	42% 3180-4317 (7497)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Noavg 0.3¢	$1.89	$7.58	+$94.46	35% 18159-34016 (52175)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Noavg 12.7¢	$34.1	$4.71	-$22.18	40% 2177-3221 (5398)
BU Burkilota1CTR<$100	Noavg 20¢	$18.19	$2.77	-$15.41	63% 712-413 (1125)

morito181

Yes

Invested

$8,113.49

Value

$19.2K

PnL

+$11.1K

Record

61%

860-552 (1412)

shineforever

Yes

Invested

$6,526.78

Value

$11.1K

PnL

+$4.6K

Record

58%

83-61 (144)

dips.

Yes

Invested

$8,550.3

Value

$9.4K

PnL

+$851.2

Record

47%

10359-11793 (22152)

JabJabich

Yes

Invested

$1,202.62

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$3.3K

Record

62%

179-108 (287)

btna

Yes

Invested

$2,418.58

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$1.9K

Record

71%

42-17 (59)

bot-rapin

Yes

Invested

$1,206.87

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$2.0K

Record

—

4-0 (4)

0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb50dF121

Yes

Invested

$777.31

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

83%

81-17 (98)

0xd37d84a14d70ac7300defe9997074b3b3fd7c70

Yes

Invested

$407.04

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

75%

110-36 (146)

roscoff

Yes

Invested

$453.5

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$712.46

Record

52%

173-159 (332)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$19,136.88

Value

$1.1K

PnL

$-18.0K

Record

51%

24233-22959 (47192)

0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR

Invested

$10,710

Value

$702

PnL

$-10.1K

Record

50%

525-521 (1046)

lukibazdonauki754

Yes

Invested

$173.86

Value

$179.36

PnL

+$5.18

Record

60%

911-595 (1506)

whosay

Yes

Invested

$93.19

Value

$158.34

PnL

+$65.15

Record

56%

1135-882 (2017)

omnibus-076daaARB<$100

Invested

$696.4

Value

$141.11

PnL

-$563.99

Record

50%

20743-20989 (41732)

Both legs:

No$674.3823.4¢-$570.65

Yes$22.0274¢+$6.67

qwen300.fundCTR

Invested

$1,028.72

Value

$124.82

PnL

-$903.9

Record

59%

11839-8177 (20016)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR

Invested

$148.9

Value

$100.25

PnL

+$146.4

Record

41%

1183-1676 (2859)

38791873984189CTR

Invested

$1,692.55

Value

$97.36

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

48%

59324-63332 (122656)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$1,372.5

Value

$64.35

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

58%

45442-32918 (78360)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Invested

$83.99

Value

$46.77

PnL

-$37.22

Record

20%

2590-10277 (12867)

HRTradingCTR

Invested

$746.58

Value

$42.96

PnL

-$703.62

Record

51%

7653-7369 (15022)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$79.75

Value

$25.14

PnL

-$54.61

Record

53%

22636-19888 (42524)

BiggggggggCTR

Invested

$105.83

Value

$9.22

PnL

-$75.8

Record

42%

3180-4317 (7497)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Invested

$1.89

Value

$7.58

PnL

+$94.46

Record

35%

18159-34016 (52175)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Invested

$34.1

Value

$4.71

PnL

-$22.18

Record

40%

2177-3221 (5398)

Burkilota1CTR<$100

Invested

$18.19

Value

$2.77

PnL

-$15.41

Record

63%

712-413 (1125)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

19 of 30 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 98%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed19 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

18 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Mature

34h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

62% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 60% · 5

Diverging

ctrNo 53% · 17

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 61% · 28

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance3.3%

2.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2927.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

3028.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.