Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (96%). 18 of 29 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Al Ahli Saudi Club vs. Al Taawoun Saudi Club end in a draw?

18 of 29 top Polymarket traders hold No (62%) · No at 4.5¢ · $56K held · ends Nov 7

Yes96¢No4¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 62%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$56.4K

Combined PnL

$-5.1K

Smart Money Entry

59.1¢ → 4.5¢

-92% since entry · 18 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 5%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

18 of 29 top traders (62%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 96%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed18 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes96%

No5%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes11 traders

Total Value$54.0K

Total Shares55,953

Combined PnL+$27.3K

No18 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares59,214

Combined PnL$-32.4K

Yes — 38%No — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

17 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Mature

28h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

61% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 75% · 4

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 16

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 59% · 27

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
morito181	Yesavg 40.5¢	$7.9K	$18.8K	+$11.0K	61% 858-552 (1410)
shineforever	Yesavg 56.9¢	$6.5K	$11.1K	+$4.6K	58% 83-61 (144)
DI dips.	Yesavg 84.4¢	$5.4K	$6.2K	+$554.21	47% 10348-11772 (22120)
JA JabJabich	Yesavg 24.3¢	$1.1K	$4.5K	+$3.4K	63% 179-106 (285)
BT btna	Yesavg 54.1¢	$2.4K	$4.3K	+$1.9K	71% 42-17 (59)
bot-rapin	Yesavg 37¢	$1.2K	$3.2K	+$2.0K	— 3-0 (3)
0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb50dF121	Yesavg 30¢	$777.31	$2.5K	+$1.7K	83% 81-17 (98)
0X 0xd37d84a14d70ac7300defe9997074b3b3fd7c70	Yesavg 21.9¢	$407.04	$1.8K	+$1.4K	75% 110-36 (146)
RO roscoff	Yesavg 37.6¢	$453.5	$1.2K	+$712.46	52% 173-159 (332)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 69¢	$19.1K	$1.1K	$-18.0K	51% 24202-22938 (47140)
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR	Noavg 59.5¢	$10.7K	$576	$-10.1K	50% 524-521 (1045)
LU lukibazdonauki754	Yesavg 94¢	$184.96	$179.04	+$5.18	60% 911-595 (1506)
WH whosay	Yesavg 56.9¢	$92.91	$158.05	+$65.15	56% 1134-882 (2016)
OM omnibus-076daaARB<$100	Noavg 23.4¢	$696.4	$140.82	-$563.99	50% 20715-20970 (41685)
└ No leg	Noavg 23.4¢	$674.38	$112.25	-$570.65
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 74¢	$22.02	$28.57	+$6.67
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR	Noavg 5.1¢	$148.9	$115.67	+$161.82	41% 1179-1673 (2852)
QW qwen300.fundCTR	Noavg 34.5¢	$1.0K	$115.07	-$903.43	59% 11786-8040 (19826)
38 38791873984189CTR	Noavg 67.8¢	$1.7K	$97.36	$-1.6K	48% 59224-63218 (122442)
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 76.3¢	$1.4K	$64.35	$-1.2K	58% 45420-32909 (78329)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Noavg 7¢	$83.99	$46.77	-$37.22	20% 2580-10222 (12802)
HRTradingCTR	Noavg 67.8¢	$746.58	$42.96	-$703.62	51% 7648-7364 (15012)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 11.4¢	$71.98	$28.33	-$43.65	53% 22496-19712 (42208)
BI BiggggggggCTR	Noavg 36¢	$105.83	$9.22	-$75.8	43% 3158-4259 (7417)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Noavg 13.2¢	$33.84	$9.05	-$17.58	40% 2163-3205 (5368)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Noavg 0.3¢	$1.89	$7.58	+$94.46	35% 18059-33813 (51872)
ME merodCTR<$100	Noavg 8.9¢	$52.75	$3.04	+$45.84	43% 3101-4154 (7255)

morito181

Yes

Invested

$7,940.56

Value

$18.8K

PnL

+$11.0K

Record

61%

858-552 (1410)

shineforever

Yes

Invested

$6,526.78

Value

$11.1K

PnL

+$4.6K

Record

58%

83-61 (144)

dips.

Yes

Invested

$5,447.79

Value

$6.2K

PnL

+$554.21

Record

47%

10348-11772 (22120)

JabJabich

Yes

Invested

$1,133.9

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$3.4K

Record

63%

179-106 (285)

btna

Yes

Invested

$2,418.58

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$1.9K

Record

71%

42-17 (59)

bot-rapin

Yes

Invested

$1,206.87

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$2.0K

Record

—

3-0 (3)

0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb50dF121

Yes

Invested

$777.31

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

83%

81-17 (98)

0xd37d84a14d70ac7300defe9997074b3b3fd7c70

Yes

Invested

$407.04

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

75%

110-36 (146)

roscoff

Yes

Invested

$453.5

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$712.46

Record

52%

173-159 (332)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$19,136.88

Value

$1.1K

PnL

$-18.0K

Record

51%

24202-22938 (47140)

0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR

Invested

$10,709.96

Value

$576

PnL

$-10.1K

Record

50%

524-521 (1045)

lukibazdonauki754

Yes

Invested

$184.96

Value

$179.04

PnL

+$5.18

Record

60%

911-595 (1506)

whosay

Yes

Invested

$92.91

Value

$158.05

PnL

+$65.15

Record

56%

1134-882 (2016)

omnibus-076daaARB<$100

Invested

$696.4

Value

$140.82

PnL

-$563.99

Record

50%

20715-20970 (41685)

Both legs:

No$674.3823.4¢-$570.65

Yes$22.0274¢+$6.67

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR

Invested

$148.9

Value

$115.67

PnL

+$161.82

Record

41%

1179-1673 (2852)

qwen300.fundCTR

Invested

$1,018.5

Value

$115.07

PnL

-$903.43

Record

59%

11786-8040 (19826)

38791873984189CTR

Invested

$1,692.55

Value

$97.36

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

48%

59224-63218 (122442)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$1,372.5

Value

$64.35

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

58%

45420-32909 (78329)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Invested

$83.99

Value

$46.77

PnL

-$37.22

Record

20%

2580-10222 (12802)

HRTradingCTR

Invested

$746.58

Value

$42.96

PnL

-$703.62

Record

51%

7648-7364 (15012)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$71.98

Value

$28.33

PnL

-$43.65

Record

53%

22496-19712 (42208)

BiggggggggCTR

Invested

$105.83

Value

$9.22

PnL

-$75.8

Record

43%

3158-4259 (7417)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Invested

$33.84

Value

$9.05

PnL

-$17.58

Record

40%

2163-3205 (5368)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Invested

$1.89

Value

$7.58

PnL

+$94.46

Record

35%

18059-33813 (51872)

merodCTR<$100

Invested

$52.75

Value

$3.04

PnL

+$45.84

Record

43%

3101-4154 (7255)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 5%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

18 of 29 top traders (62%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 96%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed18 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

17 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Mature

28h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

61% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 75% · 4

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 16

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 59% · 27

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance5.8%

4.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1636.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

1736.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.