Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Up, while the market favors Down (66%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Solana Up or Down on November 1?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Up (40%) · Up at 35¢ · $569 held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Up
5
Up 40%
$568.6
-$30.83
39.9¢ → 34.5¢
-13% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralUp at 35%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Down 66%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Up. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452CTR | Upavg 42¢ | $115.31 | $131.08 | +$14.35 | 66% 2457-1291 (3748) |
AL almach | Downavg 61¢ | $61 | $126 | -$11.5 | 55% 48764-40306 (89070) |
19 196874353278CTR | Upavg 38¢ | $142.97 | $122.28 | -$20.69 | 45% 211-263 (474) |
BO bosona<$100 | Downavg 59.4¢ | $96.5 | $94.73 | -$9.74 | 55% 50077-40263 (90340) |
MO mo-money<$100 | Downavg 52¢ | $26 | $94.5 | -$3.25 | 55% 50821-41402 (92223) |
Invested
$115.31
Value
$131.08
PnL
+$14.35
Record
66%
2457-1291 (3748)
Invested
$61
Value
$126
PnL
-$11.5
Record
55%
48764-40306 (89070)
Invested
$142.97
Value
$122.28
PnL
-$20.69
Record
45%
211-263 (474)
Invested
$96.5
Value
$94.73
PnL
-$9.74
Record
55%
50077-40263 (90340)
Invested
$26
Value
$94.5
PnL
-$3.25
Record
55%
50821-41402 (92223)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
34.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.6¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.