Solana Up or Down on October 31?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Up (100%) · Up at 84¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Up
5
Up 100%
$1.3K
$5.46
80¢ → 83.5¢
+4% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralUp at 84%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Upavg 79.9¢ | $1.0K | $1.0K | +$6.61 | 65% 2423-1286 (3709) |
MO mo-money<$100 | Upavg 81¢ | $81 | $81 | +$0 | 55% 50666-41271 (91937) |
AL almach<$100 | Upavg 81¢ | $81 | $81 | +$0 | 55% 48616-40182 (88798) |
BO bosona<$100 | Upavg 81.5¢ | $75.72 | $75.47 | -$0.25 | 55% 49876-40095 (89971) |
AN Anon455<$100 | Upavg 76.8¢ | $38.4 | $41 | -$0.9 | 55% 2908-2339 (5247) |
Invested
$1,002.5
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$6.61
Record
65%
2423-1286 (3709)
Invested
$81
Value
$81
PnL
+$0
Record
55%
50666-41271 (91937)
Invested
$81
Value
$81
PnL
+$0
Record
55%
48616-40182 (88798)
Invested
$75.72
Value
$75.47
PnL
-$0.25
Record
55%
49876-40095 (89971)
Invested
$38.4
Value
$41
PnL
-$0.9
Record
55%
2908-2339 (5247)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.